Two years ago, Jordan Love surprised everyone in his first year as the Green Bay Packers’ starting QB, posting 19.4 fantasy points per game, good for an overall QB5 finish. Last season, he took a major step backwards, averaging 16.3 ppg, finishing as the QB16. What can fantasy football managers expect from Love in his third season as a starter?
Jordan Love Fantasy Outlook
Before Love took over for Aaron Rodgers as the Packers’ starting quarterback, he saw only limited action during his first three years in the league. Drafted No. 26 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, Love rode pine his entire rookie season. In the two seasons that followed, he appeared in 10 games with one start. At no point did Love look particularly good. That’s what made his 19.4 ppg in 2023 so surprising.
After that performance, fantasy managers accepted Love’s talent, but overvalued him a bit, as Love doesn’t offer much on the ground. Despite an increase in efficiency, Love’s 2024 season was much worse from a fantasy perspective.
There were two main reasons for this, neither of which was really Love’s fault.
A healthy Jordan Love is a really, really good Jordan Love.
From Weeks 11-17. pic.twitter.com/liK8veu2Ix
— Wendell Ferreira (@wendellfp) May 20, 2025
First, Love isn’t mobile. However, he did manage to rush for 247 yards and four touchdowns in 2023. That dropped to 83 yards and one touchdown in 2024. That alone accounts for about a 2.0 ppg drop.
Second, and this goes hand-in-hand with Love’s reduced rushing rate, is the Packers’ change in offensive philosophy. Last season, the Packers’ big offseason acquisition was signing Josh Jacobs. As a result, they committed more to running the ball.
In 2023, the Packers had a 45% neutral game script run rate. In 2024, it was 53%, which led the league. If you look at the teams that are typically at the top of the league in neutral game script run rate, it’s the ones with mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, and Lamar Jackson (those were the next three teams on the list). The Packers have a pocket passer and still ran the ball more than anyone else in a neutral game script.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, they played slow, averaging 29.4 seconds per snap, the ninth-slowest pace in the league. They also ran 540 plays, a staggering 26 fewer than the next-lowest team. By contrast, the Chiefs ran 839 plays, leading the league. Everything about Green Bay’s offense made it impossible for Love to return fantasy value.
The concern for 2025 is what exactly is going to change? If the Packers end up being surprisingly terrible on defense, they will have no choice but to play faster and run more plays. But we have no reason to predict that. In all likelihood, Green Bay will have an average to good defense and run a similar offensive scheme.
Although they drafted Matthew Golden in the first round, that shouldn’t be viewed as a sign they intend to throw more. This offense is still going to run through Jacobs.
The Packers have a deep set of pass-catchers, but lack elite talent that demands the ball. Their goal is to run the ball and throw when they need to. That is not conducive to Love’s fantasy prospects.
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I have Love ranked as my QB18, one spot below his QB17 ADP. To be blunt, I cannot fathom a scenario where I would draft Love this season. With most fantasy managers only drafting one quarterback, there’s rarely a need to go this deep into rankings. Plus, if you are taking a shot on a late-round QB with upside, you want to target mobile quarterbacks.
Love will surely have his moments and pop up as a streamer multiple times throughout the season, but he is not someone for fantasy managers to target as their QB1.
Frank Ammirante’s Jordan Love Fantasy Projection
Jordan Love is one of the best values at quarterback right now. The Packers’ signal-caller finished as QB18 in fantasy points per game last year, but he played through multiple injuries. This caused Green Bay to go extremely run-heavy, as they were trying to rely on Love less.
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You can see this in Love’s rushing production. In 2023, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry with 247 rushing yards. This dropped to 3.3 yards per carry and 83 yards on the ground in 2024. We also saw Love run at a lower rate in the red zone, as his rushing touchdowns fell from four to only one.
Now fully healthy, we can expect the Packers to throw at a higher rate than last year. They revealed these intentions by using their first-round pick on a wideout in Matthew Golden. Let’s not forget that Love finished as QB5 in PPG in 2023. While a similar finish is unlikely, he’s a great bet to provide significant profit on his current QB18 cost.
