Another 10.5 seasons at his current rate, and Jordan Addison will be the NFL’s all-time leader in touchdown receptions. That might be putting the cart before the horse, but your fantasy football league mates are well aware that the former first-round pick has scored 19 times through two seasons and has shown flashes of greatness.
Where should he slot in at the loaded receiver position as he continues his ascent toward his physical peak with a high-pedigree quarterback set to take over this offense?
Jordan Addison’s Fantasy Outlook
You could poll 15 analysts and get 15 different opinions on Addison. Heck, you could ask me in 15 days from the time you read this, and my tone may have changed.
On the surface, there’s a lot to like. Addison proved that his impressive rookie season was anything but a fluke by posting a near carbon copy and giving us an extended sample size of viability.
- 2023: 18.8% over PPR expectation, 4.1 catches, on 6.4 targets for 53.6 yards and 0.59 TDs
- 2024: 21% over PPR expectation, 4.2 catches, on 6.6 targets for 58.3 yards and 0.60 TDs
Oh my… this angle of the Jordan Addison TD 🎥🔥 pic.twitter.com/0optsZlV8R
— NFL (@NFL) November 4, 2024
That level of consistency is for a few reasons. First is the obvious. He did it with a change under center, proving himself to be reasonably considered QB agnostic. That’s certainly encouraging, headed into a year with another unknown quantity under center, but that’s not what has my eye at the highest level.
Addison and Plaxico Burress.
That’s your comprehensive list of receivers with consecutive seasons of 9+ touchdown receptions and no more than 70 catches during the 2000s (if you’re curious, Julius Thomas did it at the tight end position). I was on my soapbox this time last year preaching natural regression, that Addison would be a good bet to take a step backwards without a quarterback change, and that with Sam Darnold penciled in, he was an auto-fade.
I was obviously wrong, but I stand by the general process.
Now, Addison has two nearly identical seasons with two different quarterbacks and has looked great in doing so.
I still can’t get him inside my top-30 at the position.
A large part of that is the depth position. DK Metcalf, Tetairoa McMillan, and Jayden Reed could all lead their respective teams in fantasy production at the position. They all fall in that similar range as Addison, for me, not bad when you consider that Addison has no real non-health-related path to that role in Minnesota. The position is deep, and that’s most of it, but unless you think Addison is a historically good receiver, a profile that relies on scoring remains terrifying for me, even in a Kevin O’Connell system.
Through two seasons, he’s scored on a hard-to-comprehend 14.3% of his career receptions. For reference …
- Randy Moss as a Viking: 15.7%
- Cris Carter, career: 11.8%
- Justin Jefferson, career: 8.1%
- 2023-24 WR Average Without Addison: 7.8%
- WR1 of the 2022 Class, Drake London: 6.2%
Maybe he is a future Hall of Famer, and I will be in for a rough 2025. That is within the range of outcomes. He did have as many finishes as WR7 or better last season as CeeDee Lamb (three), and the weekly ceiling could more than make up for the down weeks. There’s a world in which that is the case.
There’s also a world in which things go sideways this season, and given the opportunity cost, I’ll be passing.
For his career, Addison’s average touchdown reception has come from 24.6 yards out, the eighth highest among WRs with at least 10 TD grabs over that stretch (Ja’Marr Chase unsurprisingly leads the way at 31.2 yards).
Yes, regression there is a concern, but I’m more worried about those long scores drying up altogether rather than the length of them dialing back a bit. Jefferson ranks fourth on that average touchdown length list (27.9 yards), and that means Addison managers are now betting on McCarthy, a prospect who entered the NFL Draft with concerns surrounding his processing speed, arm strength, and mobility, funneling such scoring passes to two players.
Due to the depth at the position, you can fade Addison without much trouble. There are plenty of upside receivers in this tier for you to bargain shop with, and I think this range of secondary running backs carries more long-term role upside.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
The Vikings do close the regular season with some favorable spots, so if you are an Addison believer, the play might be to wait through the first two months while McCarthy gets his feet wet, and buy low.
- Week 14 vs. Washington Commanders
- Week 15 at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 16 at New York Giants
- Week 17 vs. Detroit Lions
As an aside, the Addison situation never seems short on drama, and if you want to avoid a potential headache, the fade makes even more sense. He was arrested entering last season on suspicion of DUI, and his dad, Roalndo Addison Sr., posted negative comments toward the offensive structure last season. There’s a non-zero chance that the noise gets loud for this 14-win team if they struggle out of the gates, and while that’s difficult to quantify numerically, you can avoid it without much trouble.
Mason LeBeau‘s Jordan Addison Fantasy Projection
Do you want to be the one to take a chance on Addison as you wait out the first three weeks of his suspension? Honestly, maybe. His ADP has taken a hit, but if it continues to dip, he’s not a bad stash. The bigger risk, to me, is if JJ McCarthy is good enough to spread the ball out enough to feed him.
Addison has had a nose for the endzone through his two seasons with 19 total scores. Even with just over 100 targets per year, he hasn’t crossed 1,000 yards yet. Instead, he plays a crucial role of either taking advantage of the gravity Justin Jefferson gives him, or creating more himself downfield. It’s been lucrative, but it’s still TD-dependent. That said, “year three, 23-year-old receivers” are the exact type of talent you want to target. If you get him at a value, then he’s a worthy stash.
Yet, there are enough question marks to be wary. He needs that breakout to be a difference maker, more receptions, more yards, and to keep that touchdown efficiency. That may not be up to him. JJ McCarthy needs to be able to feed him, and they may look to run more often behind their rebuilt offensive line.
QBs have combined for 30 and 35 touchdowns over those two years, whereas RBs have only rushed for four and seven in the same time. It’s not just a lofty goal for McCarthy to support two WRs, but this team wants to run more around the goal line. So, make your call on Addison. Because of his suspension, I think I’d rather pass on his price, but I won’t be shocked if he turns up as well. He’s an excellent target for keeper leagues, where you can keep him at a good price for 2026.
