Jonathan Taylor is too talented to fail. He may not have game-breaking fantasy football upside, but he’s a very safe option for managers. How good Taylor can be may depend on who plays quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts. With a situation likely to remain in flux, is Taylor a value or someone fantasy managers should avoid in 2025 drafts?
Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Outlook
Every year, there are some players that you just don’t have strong opinions on. Taylor is one of those for me. Not to bury the lede, but it’s hard to envision myself drafting him anywhere. That’s not meant to be a knock on Taylor. He’s incredibly talented and certainly a fantasy running back. He happens to go at a part of the draft where there are a lot of good players whom I like more.
Taylor has been a RB1 most of his career. Outside of his disastrous 2022 season, which followed his overall RB1 finish in 2021, the worst we’ve gotten from Taylor is 15.6 fantasy points per game.
In an era where just about every backfield has some sort of committee, Taylor is a bit of a throwback. He played 80.5% of the snaps last season and saw a league-high 88.4% opportunity share. That type of volume should be incredibly enticing for fantasy managers. Yet, it’s not for me.
Taylor’s problem is that he’s entirely reliant on rushing and touchdowns. That’s a rough combination on a team led by either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson.
Last season, Taylor saw an 8% target share. It was 7.6% the year prior. The absolute highest it’s ever been was 10.8%. And this was on an offense that was third in the league with a 48% neutral game script run rate.
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The Colts run a lot, which is obviously great for Taylor. But without any sort of receiving profile, Taylor’s season largely becomes a story of how many touchdowns he scored.
In 2021, Taylor found the end zone 20 times. He was the overall RB1. In 2020 and 2024, Taylor scored 12 times each. He was a mid RB1. In 2023, he punched it in 8 times. He was a low RB1. In 2022, Taylor scored 4 times. He was a mid RB2.
Taylor is simply not my cup of tea. He’s not the type of player I like to chase in fantasy. I know it feels unfair to say at his RB8 average draft position (ADP) that he’s being drafted close to his ceiling since we’ve seen him average 22.0 PPG, but he is. If you think he can score 20 touchdowns again, then you absolutely should be drafting him. I do not.
Counterpoint: JT was the RB19 in FP/G from weeks 1-15, before a couple of timely explosion games.
He’s also an overrated runner (outside top 20 RBs in EPA/Rush each of L3 seasons), is in a bad offense (24th in EPA/Play in ‘24), and has a poor receiving role (40th in RB target… https://t.co/vdm8dTOl4I
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) June 22, 2025
I have Taylor ranked as my RB11, which is only one spot below his RB10 ADP. When we start including the wide receivers that are typically available in the late second round, though, Taylor falls even further.
There’s nothing wrong with Taylor himself. But I won’t have any of him this season at his current price.
Frank Ammirante’s Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Projection
I came into draft season planning on having Jonathan Taylor as one of my main targets. After all, this was a running back who finished 6th in FLEX scoring in half-PPR formats last year.
But as training camp has progressed, I’ve taken a more neutral outlook on Taylor. While I still think he’s a value in the second round, I’m no longer taking him over other running backs like Chase Brown and Bucky Irving.
The reason for this is simple: I originally projected Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback, but it looks like Anthony Richardson has the upper hand in this position battle right now.
If A-Rich wins the job, that means that he’ll take away red zone carries while limiting targets to Taylor.Â
Additionally, the Colts are likely to use rookie tight end Tyler Warren in a Taysom Hill-type of role at times. The former Penn State standout rushed for 200+ yards and two touchdowns last season, and the Colts are already lining him up at fullback at times.
With that in mind, I’m going with a lukewarm outlook on Taylor rather than making him a priority.
