In 2024, Joe Mixon had six straight RB1 finishes (Weeks 6 to 11), something that Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs couldn’t lay claim to. His versatility and nose for the end zone were on full display during the first half of the season, but his usage and efficiency tanked when fantasy football managers needed it most.
Which version of him should you expect in 2025?
Joe Mixon’s Fantasy Outlook
During overlapping segments, Mixon had a stretch of four straight games with 24+ carries and another run of five consecutive games with 4+ targets. He’s entering his age-29 season and with over 1,800 carries (2,100 touches) on his NFL resume, physical decline is certainly a worry. Still, he defended Father Time at a high level early on last season, and that makes outright counting him out dangerous.
Zone YPC vs. Man/Gap YPC (2021-2024)
Joe Mixon: 3.8 YPC vs. 4.4 YPC
Nick Chubb: 4.8 YPG vs. 5.2 YPC
Dameon Pierce: 4.0 YPC vs. 4.1 YPC
Woody Marks (NCAA): 4.8 YPC vs. 5.5 YPC51% of Houston’s runs came on zone concepts last year (9th-most) https://t.co/3ZdJDCv2UP
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 12, 2025
PFSN’s Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator has him coming off the board as a middling RB2, a price tag that seems to account for the risks that come with aging. The Texans made noise this summer when they inked Nick Chubb to a deal, and many managers took that as a negative for Mixon’s value, but is that right?
For me, it should be viewed as good news. Chubb is the same age as Mixon, but has missed 70.6% of games over the past two seasons and appears to be working on borrowed time from a health standpoint.
Not only do I not fear him taking much food off the plate of their starting running back, his signing reinforces the win-now trajectory of this franchise. What better way to do that than to milk everything possible out of Mixon before the team has a potential out of his contract this upcoming offseason?
Since missing 10 games in 2020, Mixon has ripped off four straight seasons with at least 300 receiving yards and seven rushing touchdowns, proving to be a per-game fantasy asset annually.
I do fear that there is some management of his work late in the season this year, like last, should the Texans be positioned well for the postseason (it worked in 2024, he ran for 194 yards and a pair of scores on 43 postseason carries), but that’s a trade market conversation we can have in November.
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I’m thrilled to take Mixon, among other veterans, in this general range, like Alvin Kamara and James Conner. Last season profiles as more of a floor than an expectation for this offensive environment as a whole, and if that moves toward the mean, Mixon can continue to age with grace.
The “fade old running backs” narrative is a bit played out as athletes across the professional scope are peaking longer, but I do think there is something to be said for managing your profile. I like Mixon, but pairing him with the two elder backs mentioned above or on a roster that added Derrick Henry in the early stages is layering risk that I’m not looking to do.
Dan Fornek’s Joe Mixon Fantasy Projection
Joe Mixon was one of the few bright spots for the Texans’ offense in 2024. The veteran running back finished as the RB9 in PPR points per game (17.2), logging 245 carries for 1,016 yards and 11 touchdowns in 14 games. Mixon also had a role in the passing game, catching 36 of 52 targets for 309 yards and a touchdown.
Mixon’s experience playing behind a bad offensive line with the Bengals paid off in his first season with Houston. The veteran running back matched his career yards per carry mark (4.1) and posted his third straight season with 5.9 yards per touch despite ranking 40th in rushing success rate (34.3%) and 25th in yards before contact (1.5).
The Texans fired their offensive coordinator this offseason, replacing him with Nick Caley, the former pass game coordinator for the Rams. That, combined with changes (mostly downgrades) across the offensive line, suggests a shift to a zone-heavy run scheme in 2025. Kyren Williams had the second-most inside zone runs of any running back in 2024 (126). Mixon was ninth among all running backs in yards per carry on inside zone runs in 2024 (4.8).
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Houston did spend the offseason upgrading the talent surrounding Mixon in the backfield, signing veteran Nick Chubb and drafting rookie Woody Marks. However, the run game should continue to flow through Mixon as long as he is fit enough to be on the field. He should be a high-end RB2 due to volume, who is capable of a low-end RB1 finish if healthy.Â
Unfortunately, that seems like a long shot given his struggle to stay healthy throughout the summer.
