Since 2021, Joe Burrow’s rate of 20-plus-point fantasy games sits at 44.8%, a number that tracks closer to Lamar Jackson’s 52.9% than it does to Matthew Stafford’s 33.8% or Jared Goff’s 32.9%. How he gets there is much more in line with the latter, but, at the end of the day, we want the points and don’t care how we get them: in that vein, he’s flirting with, if not in, that Jackson tier.
Should You Draft Joe Burrow in Fantasy Football?
Burrow’s ADP is 54.2 in PFN’s Free Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator. He has a positional rank of QB5, which is a consensus of my colleague Kyle Soppe and me, and we have him projected for 19.2 fantasy points per game.
Here’s the problem with Burrow. He’s unquestionably a top-five real-life quarterback. If we’re ranking them and I’m being really serious about it, I’d probably put him at number 3 behind Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. But fantasy football is not real football. That’s why someone like Malik Willis is probably going to be better than Matthew Stafford in fantasy this year, even though Stafford is an infinitely better quarterback, because Willis runs and Burrow does not.
Look at the percentage of fantasy points scored from rushing last season. Josh Allen, 37.3%. Drake Maye, 17.9%. Patrick Mahomes, 25.3%. Trevor Lawrence, 24.8%. Burrow, 2.9%.
If we look back to 2024, which was Burrow’s last fully healthy season, he averaged a really impressive 22.5 fantasy points per game. But he needed 43 passing touchdowns and nearly 5,000 yards to get there. We’ve seen the same thing play out with Matthew Stafford, who had negative 1.7% of his fantasy points come from rushing last season. In his legendary year, which was last year, and back in 2021, he had to throw 40-plus passing touchdowns both times to be a fantasy QB1.
Meanwhile, look at someone like Jalen Hurts in 2024. He averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game on just 2,900 passing yards and 18 passing touchdowns. That’s the entire point: rushing is a cheat code, and Burrow doesn’t have much of it.
Last year, 76.5% of the Bengals’ touchdowns came through the air. That number is bound to regress. If we even get 67%, or two-thirds, this year coming through the air, that’s still excellent, but that’s going to take away from Burrow’s overall volume. If Burrow has a great year where he throws for 4,500 yards and 35 passing touchdowns, that is really not enough to get him into QB1 territory, or at least not somebody that’s worth taking in the 5th, 6th, or 7th round.
I want my quarterbacks to run. Burrow doesn’t really run. At his cost, even though he’s a great player and a great quarterback, and even though you can pair him with Ja’Marr Chase based on where he is and I always love stacking, I’m still not going to push the button on Burrow. It’s just an opportunity-cost thing, and he doesn’t run enough. I can get comparable production much later in the draft. QB is too deep this year for me to spend an early-round pick on a pure pocket passer.
FANTASY RANKINGS: PFN’s FREE Fantasy PPR, Half-PPR, and Non-PPR Rankings
Joe Burrow’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis provided by PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe.
I’m a fan of Burrow. I ranked him as my QB3 this preseason and stand by him being a good bet to give fantasy managers what Stafford did a season ago.
On the surface, this matchup doesn’t scare me in the slightest. In 2025, 13 times did a QB clear 15.4 fantasy points against the Bucs, a list that includes luminaries like Michael Penix Jr., Tyrod Taylor, Bryce Young (twice), and Quinn Ewers. Burrow may not have the versatile skill set that we want, but Baker Mayfield is going to do his part in terms of making this a plus-environment, and that’s all we need when he has his full cast of characters in hand.
Those numbers are more than enough to have me playing him with confidence in all season-long formats, but the slow Septembers are at least worth mentioning. Burrow has started 9 games over the previous three Septembers, and he’s cleared that 15.4 number just 3 times.
I don’t think it tells a full story, but I also don’t think 11 TDs and 1 game of 260+ pass yards happens by mistake. I bring up those trends as a minor warning: I’m rolling out Burrow in the many season leagues in which I have him, but for the main DFS slate, I’m looking further down the QB board.
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Where Burrow Ranks Among 2026 Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen | BUF
- Drake Maye | NE
- Lamar Jackson | BAL
- Jayden Daniels | WAS
- Joe Burrow | CIN
- Jalen Hurts | PHI
- Caleb Williams | CHI
- Justin Herbert | LAC
- Jaxson Dart | NYG
- Trevor Lawrence | JAX
- Dak Prescott | DAL
Know the position inside and out with every QB, ranked, on PFN’s 2026 PPR Board.
