One of the best stories of last season was the resurgence of J.K. Dobbins. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by an all-too-familiar foe: injury. Now back in Denver for another season, should fantasy football managers view Dobbins as the value he was last season? Or will the potential for increased touch competition make this a situation to avoid?
Should You Draft J.K. Dobbins in Fantasy Football?
The general perception of Dobbins’ 2025 season was that it was a nice success. Given his price in fantasy drafts, it definitely was…but perhaps not to the degree you remember.
Dobbins played well. There’s no denying that. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry and recorded 12 rushes of 15+ yards, 11th most in the league. Dobbins is definitely one of the better runners in the league. Unfortunately, that doesn’t necessarily pay the bills in fantasy.
Dobbins only averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game. As well as he played, his stint as a weekly fantasy starter really lasted a mere five weeks.
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A foot injury ended Dobbins’ season after Week 10. Here were his splits before that.
- Weeks 1-5: 14.5 PPG
- Weeks 6-10: 8.7 PPG
Dobbins hit double-digit fantasy points in each of his first five games, mostly because he scored in four of them. Over the next five, he didn’t score at all, resulting in just one of them cresting double digits. Therein lies the issue with Dobbins’ fantasy value. He is entirely reliant on touchdowns.
Last season, Dobbins saw a 4.3% target share. Throughout his career, he’s never been a prolific receiver. We can debate the merits of his lack of passing-game usage and whether it’s a skill issue or a coaching decision all we want. The reality is, it doesn’t matter. We can confidently project Dobbins to a very minimal passing-game role. That is a tenuous fantasy profile to bet on.
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Head coach Sean Payton sees a clear role for RJ Harvey. He’s the satellite back. He’s the guy in the passing game. While that obviously caps Dobbins’ upside, last year, we could safely project Dobbins for the primary rushing and goal-line role. That’s not the case anymore.
We should always have a healthy dose of skepticism about whether any Day 3 rookies will be used, but given Dobbins’ injury history plus Jonah Coleman’s size, it’s not ridiculous to think he may take some short-yardage and goal-line work. Coleman is also a capable receiver, which ensures Dobbins has no path to a passing-down role even if Harvey were to get hurt.
As talented as Dobbins may be, he is very much a better real-life player than a fantasy type of player.
Dobbins’ Redraft Fantasy Football Value
Last season, Dobbins was a great value going behind Harvey despite the fact that he was the starter (although, to be fair, the fantasy community did not necessarily believe that would be the case at the time). This year, their ADPs are much closer to Dobbins at RB34, a mere one spot behind Harvey.
There are plenty of issues with Harvey’s profile as well, but you can paint a path to upside. It’s much more difficult to do that with Dobbins.
MORE: Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: How to Win Your League After Selecting Bijan Robinson First Overall
Last year, Dobbins finished just outside the top 24 running backs. If you get borderline RB2 production from a low RB3, that’s definitely a positive return on investment. But that really feels like Dobbins’ ceiling. That’s why he’s so low in my rankings down at RB43.
Dobbins will almost certainly outperform his ADP. But that’s not the threshold for whether he’s a worthwhile pick at cost. The reality is that several running backs going around him possess more upside and a clearer path to doing so. As a result, Dobbins is not someone fantasy managers should target unless he falls well below ADP.
Preseason Fantasy RB Rankings
- Bijan Robinson | ATL
- Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
- James Cook III | BUF
- Jonathan Taylor | IND
- Ashton Jeanty | LV
- Christian McCaffrey | SF
- Saquon Barkley | PHI
- Chase Brown | CIN
- De’Von Achane | MIA
- Derrick Henry | BAL
- Kenneth Walker III | KC
- Jeremiyah Love | ARI
- Omarion Hampton | LAC
- Javonte Williams | DAL
- Breece Hall | NYJ
- Kyren Williams | LAR
- D’Andre Swift | CHI
- Travis Etienne Jr. | NO
- Josh Jacobs | GB
- Cam Skattebo | NYG
- David Montgomery | HOU
- Bhayshul Tuten | JAX
- TreVeyon Henderson | NE
- Quinshon Judkins | CLE
- Jaylen Warren | PIT
- Bucky Irving | TB
- Jadarian Price | SEA
- Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
- Chuba Hubbard | CAR
- Kenny Gainwell | TB
- Tony Pollard | TEN
- Jordan Mason | MIN
- Rico Dowdle | PIT
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
- Blake Corum | LAR
- RJ Harvey | DEN
- Kyle Monangai | CHI
- Rachaad White | WAS
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX
- Zach Charbonnet | SEA
- Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
- Jonathon Brooks | CAR
- J.K. Dobbins | DEN
- Tyler Allgeier | ARI
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
- Isiah Pacheco | DET
- Woody Marks | HOU
- Tyjae Spears | TEN
- Nick Singleton | TEN
- Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL
