The 2024 regular season was widely successful for the Minnesota Vikings, winning 14 games in a year in which sportsbooks heavily favored them to have a losing record. They were able to do that in large part due to the play of Sam Darnold, a quarterback whose professional fate was in limbo.
That’s not the case anymore, but his success resulted in a lucrative deal with the Seattle Seahawks — now it’s J.J. McCarthy time. The 10th overall pick in 2024 missed all of last season, but Kevin O’Connell has been consistent in his support of him, as he is plenty qualified to run this profitable system.
Should we trust him as a roster filler?
J.J. McCarthy Fantasy Outlook
On one hand, we have a proven system filled with playmakers. This Minnesota situation under O’Connell is built to return a fantasy profit — and a real-life one for that matter, as Darnold was deemed not to be worth eight figures by 31 NFL teams 12 months ago, but signed with the Seahawks for nine figures this offseason.
The creativity was real and spectacular, something that should give us confidence that this offense will be tweaked to play to McCarthy’s strengths. Despite a running game that was nothing more than average a season ago, O’Connell labeled play-action as a spot of impact in Darnold’s (QB9 on a points per game basis) skill set and schemed up ways for him to thrive.
Not only was he the second-best QB in the league in terms of passer rating in such spots, but his growth was tremendous — O’Connell saw something that the rest of the NFL couldn’t.
Darnold Play-Action Stats
- 2024 with Vikings: 71.7% complete, 10.1 yards per pass, 5.3 TD/INT
- Career prior: 61.3% complete, 7.7 yards per pass, 1.0 TD/INT
So, was Darnold a product of a ground-breaking system alongside a talented supporting crew? Or was Darnold a high-pedigree prospect who simply needed a nudge in the right direction?
.@DMRussini and @ChaseDaniel discuss how Aaron Rodgers signing with the @Steelers affects the @Vikings.
Russini believes this shows that Minnesota fully believes J.J. McCarthy is THE guy.
“While the headline to me is 100% Aaron Rodgers is a Pittsburgh Steeler, I think 1c/1d is… pic.twitter.com/yDHDwMHMVE
— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) June 7, 2025
As much as you want your bet on McCarthy to be one on him and him alone, your confidence in him has to be tied to what you think made Darnold a Pro Bowler.
For McCarthy, accuracy is a clear strength, and he’ll likely lean on a quick passing game to get the ball into his playmakers’ hands fast. There will be a learning curve — he’s never taken a pro snap and is being asked to lead this team back to the postseason — but the schedule and recent history suggest he could become a valuable asset as the season goes on.
First-round rookie QBs over the last five years
- First 10 starts: 14.91 fantasy PPG
- Next seven starts: 15.64 fantasy PPG
Minnesota’s bye comes early in Week 6. While I usually prefer a later break to keep players fresh for the fantasy playoffs, an early reset can be valuable for young players — especially when they’re running a system I trust.
The Vikings run through an NFC gauntlet to open December (Washington, at Dallas, at New York) before a potentially high-scoring Christmas Day game against the Lions during your fantasy championship. That’s not a bad run out — we could see him gain value as the season progresses.
You don’t need to draft him and stash him right away, but once bye weeks hit — like Week 9, when Minnesota hosts Baltimore and both Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts are off — it might be worth adding McCarthy. Even if you don’t start him, keeping him for the stretch run can at least keep him out of your opponents’ hands.
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This is your typical small swing, small win investment. There isn’t much risk in taking a flyer in McCarthy at the end of your draft or on the waiver wire in September, should you see signs of what is possible. In two-QB/Superflex formats, I like taking a shot like this, as he is a well-thought-of prospect with job security in a plus-offense.
The bones of that profile are solid, and as long as you account for some of the risk by rostering a viable QB3 in leagues like that, I think the price of admission is worth it before we see McCarthy play a single down that counts as a pro.
Frank Ammirante’s J.J. McCarthy Fantasy Projection
J.J. McCarthy is in an ideal situation for immediate production. The former first-rounder sat on the sidelines for his entire rookie year due to injury, allowing him to get accustomed to life as a pro before being thrown into the fire. Recent first-round QBs to sit out for at least one year include Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love.
On top of that, McCarthy is playing for Kevin O’Connell, who just made Sam Darnold look like an MVP candidate. We’ve also seen O’Connell bring out the best in veterans like Kirk Cousins as well as journeymen such as Nick Mullens and Josh Dobbs. Imagine what O’Connell can do with a quarterback that he hand-picked in the first round.
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Then you have to consider the supporting cast, which includes superstar wideout Justin Jefferson, stud tight end T.J. Hockenson, and terrific No. 2 receiver Jordan Addison.
Don’t be surprised if McCarthy provides a major profit at current cost, given this terrific team context. This is one of my favorite late-round QB targets in fantasy football drafts right now.
