The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New York Jets players heading into their matchup with the New England Patriots to help you craft a winning lineup.
Breece Hall, RB
Who do you think wins this game?
Breece Hall has cleared 15 touches in four straight games against the Patriots, but the Jets are 2-3 in games with him against the Pats, and he’s scored under 10 PPR points in all of the losses.
We are looking at one of the more explosive backs in the sport, but even he can’t find anywhere to turn in this one-dimensional offense that is struggling to back opponents off of the line of scrimmage.
Hall’s last carry, gaining more than 13 yards, came back in Week 10, and with the Patriots ranking fourth best post-contact against RBs this season, I can’t say that I see that trend changing.
We haven’t seen Hall reach 10 PPR points in a game this month, and he has scored 39.1% below expectations over those games. I’ll listen to the idea of buying in on Hall at a discount next season should the opportunity present itself. Still, I won’t be reaching unless this offense looks drastically different.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 17 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Playoff Edition
Garrett Wilson, WR
News broke in November that Garrett Wilson was placed on IR with a knee injury that was expected to keep him out of multiple games at the time of the initial diagnosis.
The Jets made official what we assumed to be the case on Friday, ruling their star WR out for the remainder of the season. He’ll finish with 10 DNPs, so that needed to be noted, but he produced over league-average expectations given his target type for the first time in his career (5.7% below in 2024).
He’ll be the biggest winner on this roster should they add upside to their QB room. Wilson is phenomenal, but you can only ask him to do so much with the attention of the defense and a low-quality target. That was evident this season on the few instances in which New York was able to get inside the 20-yard line: he was targeted on just 11.1% of his red zone routes after posting rates north of 24% in each of his first three seasons.
It’s a minor miracle that Wilson owns a career 17-game average of 1,050 receiving yards. His upside relies on how the roster is filled out around him, but his raw talent makes him a fantasy starter, even if nothing changes in a meaningful way.
