Cleveland Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy was a first-round pick by the Denver Broncos back in 2020, and while he never lived up to expectations in Denver, he posted career highs in catches (90) and yards (1,229) during his first season in Cleveland, one that had spotty quarterback play at best.
The 26-year-old faces similar challenges this season, and fantasy football managers aren’t betting on a repeat. Are they wise to do so?
Jerry Jeudy’s Fantasy Outlook
Jeudy was PPR WR21 last season with a WR55 average draft position (ADP). If you drafted him in the 12th round, in the Romeo Doubs and Joshua Palmer range, you were lapping your league in terms of value.
The promising season for a player who, theoretically, is still approaching his peak seasons should be met with a massive market correction. However, he is currently flirting with WR40 status on the ADP board. Yes, it’s a bump up from last season, but hardly a sign of optimism.
We all agree that Jeudy can play, so is this discount warranted? Is the situation entering this season that much worse than the hodgepodge situation from last season, where Joe Flacco, Deshaun Watson, PJ Walker, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson all cleared 100 attempts?
2024 WR Leaders by Total Air Yards
[+ Catchable Air Yard % in Parentheses]
1. CALVIN RIDLEY, 1838 (56%)
2. Courtland Sutton, 1822 (63%)
3. Drake London, 1715 (69%)
4. Justin Jefferson, 1709 (70%)
5. Marvin Harrison, 1613 (63%)
6. Malik Nabers, 1610 (59%)
7. Jerry Jeudy, 1610… pic.twitter.com/VpLbhb7FmO— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 29, 2025
The truth is that we don’t know, but if we have questions at the level we do, why take the risk? Other receivers in this general range are Rome Odunze (upward trending quarterback situation), Jakobi Meyers (increased quarterback stability from a season ago), and Ricky Pearsall (role upside), all of whom have a cleaner path to a reasonable floor.
The Jeudy case is one baked in risk/reward analysis, so let’s take a closer look. How bad can it be? How bad should we expect it to be?
As it turns out, the public has this about right and might actually be optimistic.
Last season, three of 39 qualified quarterbacks graded worse than a ‘D’ in PFSN’s QB+ Rankings. Given projected win totals and the fact that we can’t say with confidence who will lead this team in pass attempts, the probability of whoever qualifies from this team landing in that group of QBs is reasonable.
Heck, Deshaun Watson is one of the three. His 49.8 grade was an ‘F’ by a wide margin and 6.4 points lower than any other QB we evaluated in 2024. Spencer Rattler and Will Levis were the other two to make this exclusive list, and when you look at the WR profiles of those who caught passes from the trio, it’s about as ugly as you’d expect.
- 11.1% fantasy production under expectations
- 1.25 yards per route run
- 1.48 fantasy points per target
- 2.60 fantasy points per reception
If those numbers sound repulsive, your instincts are correct.
Average 168 Qualified WRs in 2024
- 2.4% fantasy production over expectations
- 1.52 yards per route run
- 1.76 fantasy points per target
- 2.80 fantasy points per reception
That’s not exactly a path to viability in anything but the deepest of leagues. It’s possible that Jeudy’s raw ability puts him on the high end of expectations, but at the end of the day, a bet on him is a bet on semi-competent quarterback play, and you’re playing with fire in that regard.
Last season, Keenan Allen (WR32) was the top-producing receiver who finished at least 10% under scoring expectations, and Wan’Dale Robinson (WR41) was next, making the current market price of Jeudy pretty justifiable.
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Jeudy’s strong 2024 stat line required him to hit his ceiling for nearly half the season. From the beginning of November through the end of the season, he ranked seventh in air yards per game, fourth in catches/targets, and second in receiving yards. If you think he has the potential to be a lineup staple for you this season, you’ll need a run similar to that at some point, and that’s difficult to project.
- QB uncertainty
- Potential to play slow through an improved running game
- Cedric Tillman’s ability to earn deep targets
- David Njoku’s drain on volume
I’m not sure Jeudy kills you at his current price, but he profiles as a small-swing small-hit type without a weekly floor, and that’s just not how I like to spend my picks in the 6-7 round range.
Dan Fornek’s Jerry Jeudy Fantasy Projection
Jeudy proved in 2024 that a wide receiver can overcome a terrible offensive situation if he gets enough target volume. Jeudy finished as the WR21 in fantasy points per game (14.2) after catching 90 of 144 targets for 1,229 yards and four touchdowns with Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Bailey Zappe throwing him the football.
Jeudy was the definition of an aggregator, finishing seventh among wide receivers in targets (144), fourth in snap share (94.2%), and first in routes run (700). He was also fifth in air yards (1,587) and sixth in receiving yards (1,229) despite having a modest 71.5% catchable target rate. Jeudy finished outside the top 50 wide receivers in yards per route run (1.76) and contested catch rate (27.3%).
Things won’t be much better in Cleveland in 2025. Jeudy will again compete with David Njoku and Cedric Tillman for targets. Whether those targets will come from Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, or rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders remains to be seen.
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None of Cleveland’s quarterback options is great, but the best one is likely Flacco. We have seen him produce with high passing volume, and the Browns have shown they won’t let bad quarterback play stop them from throwing if they are in a negative game script.
The safest way to value Jeudy is as a WR3 who can produce a WR2 season with enough target volume. The Browns likely won’t be good enough to score many touchdowns, so he must see a large target share to provide consistent weekly fantasy value in 2025.
