Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has become fantasy football’s most unwanted commodity, according to PFSN’s Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, appearing in 80% of trades this month as managers scramble to dump his shares before it’s too late.
With rookie Kaleb Johnson looming and Warren’s efficiency metrics trending downward, the writing may already be on the wall for the former undrafted back.
Declining Production Signals Trouble Ahead
The numbers paint a concerning picture for Warren’s immediate future. His gain rate on rushing attempts has declined consistently across all three professional seasons, dropping from 88.3% in 2022 to 83.2% in 2023 and further slipping to 82.5% in 2024. This steady regression suggests Warren isn’t just having a rough patch but is facing fundamental limitations as a primary ball carrier.
Even more telling is Warren’s workload ceiling. He has never recorded a game with more than six touchdowns in his NFL career, raising serious questions about his ability to handle running back responsibilities. While Warren showed promise as a complementary piece early in his career, the lack of heavy usage indicates the Steelers coaching staff may have already identified his limitations and may keep him in more of a pass-catching role.
Fantasy managers have taken notice. The massive trade frequency involving Warren reflects widespread concern about his long-term value and immediate production potential. Smart fantasy players are cutting bait before his value completely evaporates.
BREAKING: Jaylen Warren and a RED ZONE TD!!!! #steelers pic.twitter.com/hUySSUWEtW
— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) November 22, 2024
Rookie Competition Threatens Warren’s Role
Enter Johnson, whose collegiate resume reads like a traditional workhorse back. The rookie averaged 20 carries per game during his final season at Iowa, demonstrating the durability and consistent usage that Warren has never achieved. Johnson’s bellcow experience provides exactly what Pittsburgh’s backfield has been missing.
Perhaps more impressive is Johnson’s developing versatility. After recording just 2.5% of his touches as receptions through his first two college seasons, Johnson expanded his role significantly in 2024, with 8.4% of his touches coming through the air. This improvement shows a player actively developing the complete skill set NFL teams demand from modern running backs.
The contrast between the two players couldn’t be starker. Warren enters 2025 with declining efficiency and no established ceiling for touches, while Johnson arrives with proven durability and expanding versatility.
The Smart Fantasy Play
Warren’s fantasy relevance appears to be evaporating in real time. His consistent decline in efficiency, combined with Johnson’s impressive collegiate production, suggests that a change of guard may happen sooner than expected. Fantasy managers holding Warren should consider following the trend and moving him while he still carries name recognition value.
