From the moment he stepped foot on a field, Jayden Reed’s talent was evident. However, talent doesn’t always translate into fantasy football value. Is the Green Bay Packers’ wide receivers’ volatility worth embracing in 2025 fantasy drafts?
Jayden Reed Fantasy Outlook
For the second consecutive season, a Packers WR coming off an efficient rookie campaign was a bad investment. The irony is that the process was sound both times.
Two years ago, Christian Watson was coming off a strong rookie year and looking poised for a sophomore leap. He disappointed.
Last year, Reed was fresh off averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game as a rookie. On a team with no clear alpha, Reed stood out as the most talented. Only playing 57% of the snaps, but averaging a superb 2.06 yards per route run, surely the talented rookie was poised for an increased role in his second season. Unfortunately, that’s not what happened.
In year two, Reed’s target share actually dropped from 17.6% to 16.2%. His targets per route run rate went from 24.4% to 20.6%.
The good news is Reed’s yards per route run improved to 2.35, 15th in the league, and he averaged 11.4 yards per target, third in the league. Reed was a good player once again. But volume is king in fantasy football, and the Packers do not appear inclined to use Reed more than they have been.
Yards vs. First Downs per Route Run over the full fantasy season
– Puka Nacua was Tyreek Hill-esque this year
– Jayden Reed remained the ultimate big-play merchant
– The Buccaneers are arguably the best spot in the league for a free-agent receiver if Godwin leaves pic.twitter.com/yDEx7mS7nR
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) December 31, 2024
Even though Reed’s efficiency improved, with his volume dropping, he only averaged 11.6 PPG, finishing outside the top 36 wide receivers. Naturally, this has led to a steep decline in Reed’s fantasy value. But has it gone too far?
Reed’s average draft position (ADP) is WR42. Even in a down year in 2024, he finished above that.
Perhaps fantasy managers are rightly concerned about Matthew Golden’s arrival as a potential true WR1. While Golden does project more as a classic flanker, he’s not a great prospect and is unlikely to command a massive target share. Most importantly, it’s hard to envision anything he does conflicting with Reed’s role.
The bigger concern is the Packers’ commitment to running the ball with Josh Jacobs. In 2023, the Packers had a 45% neutral game script run rate. In 2024, it was 53%, which led the league. If you look at the teams that are typically at the top of the league in neutral game script run rate, it’s the ones with mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, and Lamar Jackson (those were the next three teams on the list). The Packers have a pocket passer and still ran the ball more than anyone else in a neutral game script.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, they played slow, averaging 29.4 seconds per snap, the ninth-slowest pace in the league. They also ran 540 plays, a staggering 26 fewer than the next-lowest team. By contrast, the Chiefs ran 839 plays, leading the league.
The concern for 2025 is, what exactly will change? If the Packers are surprisingly terrible on defense, they will have no choice but to play faster and run more plays. But we have no reason to predict that. They will likely have an average to good defense and run a similar offensive scheme.
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Although they drafted Golden in the first round, that shouldn’t be viewed as a sign they intend to throw more. This offense will still run through Jacobs, making it a challenge for Reed to reach any sort of ceiling.
I have Reed ranked as my WR38. Somehow, I’ve become above consensus on Reed. The path to consistency is hard to see, but Reed will undoubtedly have spike weeks, even if he doesn’t play in two-receiver setes. Reed is a fine pick because he has that high weekly upside, but he’s not someone fantasy managers should aggressively target.
Mason LeBeau‘s Jayden Reed Fantasy Projection
Jayden Reed was the WR1 in Week One of last year on just six targets and a carry. He had a repeat performance as the WR2 in Week Four. If you took a chance on Reed early last season, you were rewarded greatly. Unfortunately after that, he only had two WR20-plus performances, going from a steal to a dud.Â
Now that rookie WR Matthew Golden is here, is there any hope for Reed? I actually believe this may make him better. Last year’s Packers offensive weapons had little identity, and Love being hurt throughout the year didn’t help. They really wanted Christian Watson or Dontayvion Wicks to fill that role as a WR1, but it never happened. I believe Golden being there will help settle this offense and let Reed do what he does best.Â
That said, I’m still not sure he’s reliable enough to be worth taking a chance on. He wasn’t just bad for most of the season, he was unusable. The shine of his upside distracts most from his floor. He’ll already be entering the season hurt with a foot injury that’s kept him out of camp for several weeks, and he may or may not play Week One, but I’d wait for a slow start and release to waivers over drafting him at his WR46 ADP
