Javonte Williams has struggled to regain his pre-injury form for two years now. Could a fresh start with the Dallas Cowboys do the trick? The presumptive favorite to be the team’s RB1, Williams, is a value in fantasy football or fool’s gold?
Javonte Williams Fantasy Outlook
By now, every fantasy manager (and NFL fan) has heard the phrase, “Running backs don’t matter.” Last year, guys like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs helped push back against that narrative. But, in general, over the better part of the past decade, NFL teams have largely decided that it is not in their best interests to pay up at the running back position.
It’s quite ironic that the Cowboys have become the paradigm for this philosophy, as they once spent the No. 4 overall pick on Ezekiel Elliott. However, it appears as though they secretly regret that decision. While Zeke was an elite running back for about a half-decade, he never actually moved the needle. Since then, the Cowboys have invested minimal resources into the running back position.
Dallas was fine with Tony Pollard as their lead back in 2023. After he walked in 2024, the presumption was they’d surely sign or draft a replacement. Instead, they legitimately went into the season with a completely cooked Elliott and 2020 former UDFA Rico Dowdle as their top two backs.
By the second half of the season, Dowdle was being used as a three-down back. The wild part is it worked.
Dowdle averaged 12.4Â fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB24. He was at 13.5 PPG from Week 5 onward, which is the point at which the Cowboys started leaning on him more.
The point in recapitulating all of this is that the Cowboys’ RB1 role is valuable in fantasy. Whoever ends up emerging will be startable.
Currently, Williams sits atop the depth chart. Behind him is a sub-replacement-level talent in Miles Sanders, who really shouldn’t even be in the NFL, and rookie fifth-rounder Jaydon Blue.
I am bullish on Blue emerging because I do not believe in the talent of Williams (and obviously not Sanders). At the same time, the history of Day 3 rookie running backs making strong impacts in fantasy is not great.
Occam’s Razor tells us the simplest solution is often the correct one. The most likely outcome in Dallas is Williams ends up as the lead back, for whatever that’s worth.
Once upon a time, Williams was poised for greatness in Denver. He had a strong rookie year that saw him average 12.1 PPG in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon. Before his sophomore breakout could really get going, Williams tore his ACL.
Pre-injury Javonte Williams was pretty, pretty, pretty good pic.twitter.com/SQ2yXEWlKr
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 5, 2024
When Williams returned in 2023, he wasn’t the same guy. Even another year removed from the injury in 2024 did not help Williams’ explosiveness return. At this point, it’s arguable whether it ever will.
With that said, is Williams really that much worse than Dowdle? One thing we can say for sure is that if Williams even commands a 50% opportunity share in Dallas, he will be worth rostering in fantasy, especially if he’s the goal line back.
Williams also has a strong track record as a receiver. He earned a 13% target share last season. Even if he only sees 8-10 carries a game, Williams merely matching Dowdle’s target share of 8.4% from last season, combined with goal line work, could get him into Flex territory.
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Williams’ ADP is way down at RB36, which is still the highest of anyone on the Cowboys. For my money, I want to take shots on Blue because he is the unknown. I believe I know who Williams and Sanders are.
Plus, there have been reports out of Cowboys camp that Williams is getting outplayed by Sanders. I truly cannot think of a more damning indictment of a running back than saying he can’t perform better than Miles Sanders.
Regardless of what you think, though, you want to take shots on this backfield. Someone is going to emerge, and whoever that is will almost certainly outperform his ADP in fantasy. Given my ranking of Williams at RB51, it definitely won’t be him.
Cameron Sheath’s Javonte Williams Fantasy Projection
Whoever takes on the lead role in the Dallas Cowboys backfield this season is likely one of the most underpriced players in fantasy football. According to ADP, Javonte Williams is the current favorite for that role, but he is still the 37th running back to be taken in drafts.
The Cowboys were atrocious on the ground last season, something which was already hindering their results long before QB Dak Prescott’s Week 9 hamstring injury. Only two teams averaged fewer yards per carry than Dallas (4.0) last year, while none tallied fewer rushing touchdowns (6).
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Down the stretch, though, things began to brighten up in that respect. From Week 12 onward, Rico Dowdle averaged 20.3 attempts per game. He turned that into an average of 96.7 rushing yards per game and was the RB18 in fantasy points per game in that span.
Williams was far from efficient in Denver last season, but so were all of the team’s other running backs. If he can find gaps more often in Dallas, he also has the receiving prowess to become a valuable fantasy asset. Question marks over his role make Williams a gamble, but the lead role in an improved Dallas offense would likely make him one of the steals of the year.
