Once the subject of harsh criticism from yours truly, James Conner has become one of the most underrated running backs in the league. A fantasy football value for most of his career, should managers set the injury risk aside and take a chance on the Arizona Cardinals’ lead back once again in 2025?
James Conner Fantasy Outlook
On the surface, Conner represents the antithesis of everything I believe in terms of fantasy football theory. He’s slow. He’s on a below-average offense. He’s 30 years old. We know with absolute certainty that his best season is behind him.
Notwithstanding all the above, I was in on Conner last year for the first time in his career. He rewarded those who believed in him with a third consecutive high-RB2 caliber finish.
Over the past three seasons, Conner has averaged between 15.4 and 15.9 fantasy points per game. Outside of the 2020 season, Conner has been no worse than a mid-RB2 his entire career as a starter.
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Volume is king at running back, but it’s worth noting that Conner wasn’t just raw volume last year. He was 11th with 5.3 yards per touch, and his 32.5% evaded tackles per touch rate led the league. This is not a running back who, despite his age, has shown any signs of decline. If anything, he’s getting better.
Conner is still near the end of his career. However, there’s no reason to project a fall-off this season.
Conner Remains Entrenched As the Cardinals’ RB1
Conner’s ADP was depressed a bit last season from the Cardinals’ third-round selection of Trey Benson. Once again, the fantasy community overvalued a third-round (or later) rookie running back. He was never a threat to Conner.
This year, the depth chart looks even more barren behind Conner than it did last year. Benson remains the clear RB2, which is what he is — firmly behind Conner and not a threat. Beyond Benson, they have Emari Demercado, Michael Carter, and DeeJay Dallas.
Conner exceeded a 65% snap share in eight games last season. He was over 70% in six of them. His 66.3% opportunity share was a very solid 18th, and his 11.2% target share was 16th. These are very strong volume numbers for a running back with zero threat to his volume.
James Conner is one of the best RB2’s you can have on your 2025 fantasy football roster: (PPR) ⬇️
▫️Over the past 3 years, he’s averaged almost 12 TDs per SZN
🔺Back to back 1,000 yards rushing SZNs
2024: ⬇️ (scroll down)
▫️2nd in missed tackles forced per attempt
🔺11th in… pic.twitter.com/dSmn0wyD6f— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) May 16, 2025
Conner’s ADP sits at RB20. You can get him at pretty much the same price you could last year, even though Conner has now finished above this ADP (and above his predraft ADP) for four consecutive seasons.
I have Conner ranked as my RB19. While I am not necessarily above ADP, I am very much interested in drafting Conner. Ironically, I like the traditional dead zone running backs a lot more this year, while disfavoring the wide receivers. This is shaping up to be an ideal spot to take a running back this season, and I will gladly make Conner my RB2 or even my RB1.
Dan Fornek’s James Conner Fantasy Projection
James Conner was the focal point of the Cardinals’ offense in 2024, setting career-highs in games played (16), carries (236), and rushing yards (1,094). He scored eight rushing touchdowns and had a modest impact in the passing attack (55 targets, 47 receptions, 414 receiving yards, and one touchdown). Conner finished the season tied for RB14 in PPR points per game (15.9).
Conner has been a steady contributor since joining the Cardinals in 2021. In four seasons with Arizona, he’s averaged 207.3 carries, 917 yards, and 9.3 rushing touchdowns per season. He’s also averaged 46.3 targets, 39.3 receptions, 313.5 receiving yards, and 1.8 receiving touchdowns. Conner has four straight seasons with at least 15.0 fantasy points per game during that time.
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The veteran was a middle-of-the-road player who benefited from volume last season. He finished 15th in expected points added (7.9) and 16th in success rate (42.4%). A lot of his success had to do with his ability to avoid tackles (28.0% rate, 4th best) and generate 10+ yard runs (14.4%, fourth best).
Conner should remain the focal point of Arizona’s rushing attack, but second-round pick Trey Benson is expected to see more work in 2025. Additionally, Conner (and Benson) could be hurt by the departure of offensive line coach Klayton Adams, one of the better run game designers in the NFL.
The veteran running back has proven to be a rock-solid RB2 since signing with the Cardinals, and that likely won’t change. However, Conner’s ability to maintain his status as a top-15 fantasy running back will largely depend on his ability to stay healthy and keep Benson off the field next season.
