Once the subject of harsh criticism from yours truly, James Conner has become one of the most underrated running backs in the league. A fantasy football value for most of his career, should managers set the injury risk aside and take a chance on the Arizona Cardinals’ lead back once again in 2025?
James Conner Fantasy Outlook
On the surface, Conner represents the antithesis of everything I believe in terms of fantasy football theory. He’s slow. He’s on a below-average offense. He’s 30 years old. We know with absolute certainty that his best season is behind him.
Notwithstanding all the above, I was in on Conner last year for the first time in his career. He rewarded those who believed in him with a third consecutive high-RB2 caliber finish.
Over the past three seasons, Conner has averaged between 15.4 and 15.9 fantasy points per game. Outside of the 2020 season, Conner has been no worse than a mid-RB2 his entire career as a starter.
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Volume is king at running back, but it’s worth noting that Conner wasn’t just raw volume last year. He was 11th with 5.3 yards per touch, and his 32.5% evaded tackles per touch rate led the league. This is not a running back who, despite his age, has shown any signs of decline. If anything, he’s getting better.
Conner is still near the end of his career. However, there’s no reason to project a fall-off this season.
Conner Remains Entrenched As the Cardinals’ RB1
Conner’s ADP was depressed a bit last season from the Cardinals’ third-round selection of Trey Benson. Once again, the fantasy community overvalued a third-round (or later) rookie running back. He was never a threat to Conner.
This year, the depth chart looks even more barren behind Conner than it did last year. Benson remains the clear RB2, which is what he is — firmly behind Conner and not a threat. Beyond Benson, they have Emari Demercado, Michael Carter, and DeeJay Dallas.
Conner exceeded a 65% snap share in eight games last season. He was over 70% in six of them. His 66.3% opportunity share was a very solid 18th, and his 11.2% target share was 16th. These are very strong volume numbers for a running back with zero threat to his volume.
James Conner is one of the best RB2’s you can have on your 2025 fantasy football roster: (PPR) ⬇️
▫️Over the past 3 years, he’s averaged almost 12 TDs per SZN
🔺Back to back 1,000 yards rushing SZNs
2024: ⬇️ (scroll down)
▫️2nd in missed tackles forced per attempt
🔺11th in… pic.twitter.com/dSmn0wyD6f— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) May 16, 2025
Conner’s ADP sits at RB20. You can get him at pretty much the same price you could last year, even though Conner has now finished above this ADP (and above his predraft ADP) for four consecutive seasons.
I have Conner ranked as my RB19. While I am not necessarily above ADP, I am very much interested in drafting Conner. Ironically, I like the traditional dead zone running backs a lot more this year, while disfavoring the wide receivers. This is shaping up to be an ideal spot to take a running back this season, and I will gladly make Conner my RB2 or even my RB1.
Cameron Sheath’s James Conner Fantasy Projection
Perennially overlooked Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner produced an RB11 overall finish in 2024, his best fantasy finish since 2021. The former Steeler played in 16 games, the most of his career, and proved a great value on his RB18 ADP.
Despite his impressive 2024 campaign, Conner is going later in drafts this year, leaving boards as the RB19. While now 30 years old, the Cardinals’ back has outproduced that ADP in three of the last four seasons, albeit barely in 2023.
Age is obviously a factor, as is Conner’s branding as a sensible, yet unremarkable fantasy asset. Given that Conner has topped 13 appearances just three times over his eight-year career, regression should be expected this coming season.
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He did receive a two-year, $19 million contract extension in November, solidifying his starting role for at least another year. Conner should be able to make good on his ADP, while ensuring the aging back costs very little later in drafts.
Unfortunately, Trey Benson suffered injuries of his own when Conner went down late in the season, preventing him from making an impact. Nevertheless, the 2024 third-round pick is the clear RB2 in Arizona and can be picked up around the 12th round of drafts. Conner is as reliable as fantasy assets come when on the field, pairing him with Benson late on could get you low-end RB1 to high-end RB2 numbers throughout the year.
