Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is fresh off a season in which he was simply unstoppable. He had more games with multiple touchdowns (four) than under 55 receiving yards (three) on his way to a triple crown during his age-24 season.
The best part? When looking underneath the statistical hood, very little from his 127-catch, 17-touchdown campaign stands out as unsustainable. His on-field target share, red-zone usage, and yards per route run numbers were significant, but not so far off his baseline that we should be concerned.
Should he be the no-brainer top overall pick across all fantasy formats this summer?
Ja’Marr Chase’s Fantasy Outlook
Repeating is hard. This is a league full of alpha receivers in a game that is built to favor the offense – you have to have a near-perfect run out to replicate your per-game success after a breakout season, and that is the pressure that Chase is under entering the 2025 season.
He’s a Tier 1 guy. He has the pedigree (fifth overall pick in 2021), consistency under center (Joe Burrow), and the proven ability to dominate for extended periods.
The case for him being the top overall player writes itself. Nothing has really changed from a season that saw him finish more points per game ahead of WR2 Puka Nacua than Nacua finished ahead of WR28 Josh Downs. Chase was a top-5 receiver on six occasions in 2024 and only had two finishes outside of the top-20 after Week 2.
The 21 end zone targets jump off the page at you (no one else had more than 18), but he’s reached double figures in that regard every season of his career, and his athletic profile makes that a sticky usage pattern that we can bank on.
YAC Monsters 😱
2024 WR/TE Leaders by Total Yards After The Catch
1. Ja’Marr Chase (797)
2. Khalil Shakir (615)
3. DJ Moore (603)
4. Brock Bowers (599)
5. Brian Thomas Jr. (572)
6. CeeDee Lamb (545)
7. Trey McBride (543) pic.twitter.com/bA0HlFlhbQ— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) July 2, 2025
His 2024 campaign was the fourth time over the past decade that a player hit 1,500 receiving yards and 20 end zone targets, joining Brandon Marshall (2015), DeAndre Hopkins (2015), and CeeDee Lamb (2023).
No matter how you slice it, Chase projects as well as anyone in the game, making him a more than worthwhile selection to kick off your draft. I think the question that is more apt for this conversation is an introspective one.
- Who are you as a manager?
- What are your draft strengths?
- What are your management blind spots (we all have them)?
- How competitive is your league?
Those questions need to be addressed because drafting Chase doesn’t just mean getting him on your roster. It means not getting any of the following 15-20 players, which needs to be considered.
I’m more comfortable putting together the receiver position week-over-week than I am with my running backs. I love deep-diving target shares and route participation metrics, which give me an edge when evaluating potential breakout stars as September data rolls in.
Due to that, I usually lean on the stability that comes with Tier 1 running backs, understanding that without injury, I will be competing with every other manager for the same handcuffs, speculative adds, and everything else. I tend to draft running backs very early and pound depth at the position in the back half of the proceedings while focusing on receiver upside in the middle third of the draft.
I’ve found success in doing this, but it’s not the only way to go, and it’s certainly not for everyone. I often expect Chase to be the top player off the board. There’s nothing wrong with that. But I know myself. I think Nico Collins could be this year’s 2024 Ja’Marr Chase. I think it’s possible that a Tee Higgins/Joe Burrow stack could prove more value based on ADP than a Chase/Burrow one. I think the running back pool dries up quicker than most.
Honestly, instead of passing on Chase at 1.01, I’m more likely to sell the pick to the highest bidder. Humans are generally happy to take the “sure thing” over the unknown, and getting possession of the top pick, for many, is a “sure thing”. You know who you’re getting, and there is comfort in that.
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But can I swap my first two picks for your first two at the turn and get access to a Collins/De’Von Achane-type foundation? Or maybe Christian McCaffrey falls into my lap? I like how Rounds 3-4 shape for managers on the turn, and that allows me to be aggressive with my first two selections in an effort to build out a super team.
Chase is amazing. You’re likely not losing your league because #1 in orange is on your roster. Is it the optimal way to build a league-winning lineup in 2025? Only time will tell.
Dan Fornek’s Ja’Marr Chase Fantasy Projection
Ja’Marr Chase established himself as the best wide receiver in the NFL in 2024. Chase finished as the WR1 in fantasy points and one of the highest scoring FLEX players in fantasy (23.7 PPR points per game), second only to Lamar Jackson.
Chase caught 127 of 175 targets for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. He’s scored up to 16.4 fantasy points with a minimum of 10.17 and now has two 20+ point seasons on his resume. The veteran receiver had 10+ end zone targets last three seasons and set a career-high with 21 in 2024. That, and a career-high slot rate (30.9%), are why his fantasy scoring skyrocketed in 2024.
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The Bengals’ offense will continue to flow through Chase at wide receiver in the foreseeable future, even with Tee Higgins competing for targets. The Bengals had the highest pass rate over expectation in 2024 (8.2%) and are expected to continue throwing at a higher rate with Joe Burrow under center. Additionally, the Bengals’ defense will be bad again next season, leading to more shootout scenarios.
2024 might be the best season we get out of Chase, but there is still room for his game to ascend. He is the 1.01 in fantasy football this season and can easily repeat as the WR1 overall if Burrow can stay healthy behind a porous offensive line.
