The Tampa Bay Buccaneers absolutely did not need to draft a wide receiver, let alone one in the first round. Yet, they took one anyway.
Now, suddenly staring down the barrel of being fourth on the depth chart, is there any reason for fantasy football managers to draft Jalen McMillan this season?
Jalen McMillan Fantasy Outlook
McMillan got a raw deal. He was a late-third-round selection last season, an area of the NFL Draft that seldom produces quality players. For most of the season, that looked to apply to McMillan. There was no reason to care about him.
From Weeks 1-13, McMillan scored a total of 36.3 fantasy points. To put that in perspective, not to say anyone is Ja’Marr Chase, but Chase exceeded that number twice in a single game.
In Week 14, though, something switched. Chris Godwin had already been out for weeks. Mike Evans had missed a month with a hamstring strain, and McMillan hadn’t stepped up yet.
From Week 14 onward, though, McMillan scored no lower than 16.7 fantasy points in any of the Bucs’ final five contests, averaging 19.2 fantasy points per game. His snap share and routes ran didn’t change much. He was suddenly commanding targets and scoring touchdowns.
Jalen McMillan in year two is going to be a problem 🔥 #WeAreTheKrewe
🎥: @Buccaneers
— SleeperBucs (@SleeperTBBUCS) June 15, 2025
It is important to note that a big part of McMillan’s late-season surge was his nose for the end zone. Touchdowns are a bit random, and we should not expect McMillan ever to have a five-game stretch in which he scores in every game and seven total touchdowns in that span.
Nevertheless, McMillan established himself as a capable producer and someone Baker Mayfield could rely on. The progression of McMillan into a better play toward the end of his rookie year is not uncommon at all. Naturally, he became an interesting name in dynasty circles as fantasy managers grew excited about the potential for the future with Evans turning 32 and Godwin turning 29, possibly moving on, and also coming off a broken ankle.
Sometimes, we look at a team’s offseason moves and think, “Wow. Things really opened up for player X.” With McMillan, it’s hard to imagine a worse series of events for his fantasy value.
First, the Bucs made it clear they were retaining both Evans and Godwin. Already, McMillan was poised to find himself in the same situation he was last year: buried as the WR3 who would struggle for consistent targets behind two alphas.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, the Bucs drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round. This was already one of the deepest WR rooms in the NFL. They did not need Egbuka.
While this was likely a pick for the future, knowing that Evans and Godwin are nearing the end of their runs, at least for 2025, all four wide receivers will be on the roster. McMillan’s path was challenging before the NFL Draft. Afterwards, it’s just about impossible.
It’s strange to advise fantasy managers not to draft a player with the talent to produce both at the NFL level and for fantasy. However, that’s where we’re at with McMillan.
A 13.4% target share and a 14.9% targets-per-route-run rate will not get it done. No receiver can be fantasy-relevant with those numbers. And it’s difficult to project any increase now that McMillan is fourth on the depth chart, even lower than last season.
McMillan would need injuries to two of the three wide receivers ahead of him to have a chance to be a weekly fantasy starter. An injury to one of them would be enough to justify a spot on fantasy rosters.
A WR59 average draft position (ADP) is not exactly expensive. That is the last wide receiver you are going to draft. But it’s high enough that McMillan will be selected in almost every fantasy draft.
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I have McMillan ranked as my WR70, which is well below ADP. The earlier you draft, the more opportunity for something unexpected to happen. But as we get closer to the season, if everyone is healthy, McMillan becomes less and less appealing.
You’ll drop most of the players you take in the double-digit rounds anyway. If you want to throw the dart and McMillan just to see what happens, being wrong certainly won’t cost you. But I prefer to take shots at wide receivers with clearer paths to playing time.
Dan Fornek’s Jalen McMillan Fantasy Projection
Jalen McMillan struggled through hamstring injuries in the early part of his rookie season, but was able to carve out a fantasy-relevant role down the stretch in Tampa Bay’s passing attack. From Weeks 14 to 18, McMillan averaged 6.2 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 63.2 receiving yards per game with seven touchdowns. He finished as a top 20 fantasy receiver in PPR scoring every week with one top 10 finish.
Unfortunately, McMillan’s success did not stop the Buccaneers from upgrading their receiver room this offseason. Not only did Tampa Bay re-sign veteran Chris Godwin, but they also used their first-round draft pick on Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. If Tampa Bay’s wide receiver room is fully healthy, McMillan figures to be the odd man out with talented veterans and a first-round pick ahead of him.
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However, the Buccaneers’ receiver room will not go into 2024 at full strength. Chris Godwin is still recovering from his 2024 ankle injury (and a second surgery in the spring), putting McMillan on the field in three receiver sets. We have seen players struggle to return to full form after dislocated ankles, so that McMillan could have a relevant role most of the season.
He won’t earn targets at a higher rate than Evans or Egbuka, but he can still be a solid boom-or-bust option in fantasy given Tampa Bay’s pass-heavy attack.
