After spending three years sharing the Lions’ backfield with David Montgomery, it is now officially the Jahmyr Gibbs show. Sonic and Knuckles are no more. Obviously, fantasy football managers should not expect Gibbs to see a 90% opportunity share. But Montgomery’s departure does matter.
How Goal-Line Work Could Elevate Jahmyr Gibbs Over Bijan Robinson As Dynasty RB1
Bijan Robinson is currently the consensus overall RB1 in dynasty. He’s 24 years old, on a decent offense, has an elite pass-catching profile, and has averaged 20+ fantasy points per game each of the past two seasons.
The main argument for Robinson over Gibbs was the role. Tyler Allgeier did exist, but not in the same way as Montgomery. Plus, we knew months ago that 2025 was Allgeier’s last season in Atlanta.
Even without Allgeier, though, Robinson doesn’t have much room to grow in terms of volume. He already had 366 touches last year. On the other hand, we’ve gotten glimpses of Gibbs without Montgomery, but never the reality of it lasting for an extended period.
Gibbs only had 320 touches last season. There’s plenty more meat on that bone. Now, also at 24 years old, we are poised to see what it looks like.
As a caveat, it is March. We still have free agency and the draft in front of us. The Lions will add to their backfield. That’s a certainty. The question is whether they add a rotational depth piece or look for a Montgomery replacement, such as the aforementioned Allgeier or perhaps Brian Robinson Jr., someone of that type.
In two months’ time, we will have our answer. We’ll probably have it within a few weeks. This running back class is really just Jeremiyah Love and the rest. The Lions are not going to draft a running back on Day 2. Other than Love, no one in this class would even be a threat to take touches from Gibbs, and they’re not getting Love. That means it would have to be a veteran free agent to come in to play the Montgomery role.
We can safely say the Lions aren’t about to make any big signing at running back. It wouldn’t make sense. Among the impending free agents, which can all be found on PFSN’s Free Agency Tracker, some potential options in addition to Allgeier and Robinson would be Najee Harris, JK Dobbins, Rico Dowdle, Antonio Gibson, and Jerome Ford.
All of these backs would have varying impacts on Gibbs. The most important factor in who the Lions sign would be whether that back is likely to take goal-line work.
The key to unlocking Gibbs’ true upside is a monopoly on goal-line work. He’s scored 38 touchdowns over the past two seasons while Montgomery siphoned off another 20 scores himself. Even if Gibbs only subsumes half of that, we’re talking another 3-4 PPG.
Gibbs has averaged 21.6 and 21.4 PPG in each of his past two seasons. He’s an elite RB1. But he’s not a game-breaking RB1. How does he get there? We’ve seen it.
In six career games with Montgomery hurt, Gibbs has averaged 27.4 PPG. I don’t use this phrase lightly, but I’ve used it before in relation to Gibbs. He has a 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson-level upside if he ever gets a full season without Montgomery. Depending on what the Lions do in free agency, we may very well see it this year.
Despite his size, Gibbs has proven capable of handling a feature workload. He’s done it every time Montgomery had to miss games. In 2024, we saw an extended run when Montgomery sprained his MCL late in the season. The Lions were not afraid to feed Gibbs 20-25 opportunities.
In an era filled with split backfields, no one sees 90% opportunity shares anymore. Gibbs has already proven he can be a top-three running back in fantasy, averaging over 20 PPG, while being in the 60-65% range. The prospect of him pushing a 70% opportunity share while seeing an increase in touchdown potential just may vault him to the overall RB1 spot in dynasty.
