It’s always difficult for a Day 3 pick to shake that stigma. Isiah Pacheco looked like he had done that, solidifying himself as the Kansas City Chiefs RB of the future. Then, he broke his leg in Week 2 and was never the same. Will Pacheco reclaim his RB1 status this season, making him a value in fantasy football?
Isiah Pacheco Fantasy Outlook
Pacheco earned the Chiefs’ lead back role as a seventh-round rookie, which is an incredibly difficult feat to accomplish. The next season, he was a massive value, as fantasy managers rightfully didn’t fully buy in. There’s just too long of a track record of Day 3/UDFA running backs having surprise seasons and then fading into the abyss.
Once Pacheco put together his 15.3 fantasy point per game sophomore season, he had pretty much shed the seventh-rounder stigma. He was just the Chiefs’ starting running back.
Pacheco looked like a true feature back in 2024. In the first two games of the season, he played 79% and 66% of the snaps, posting 15.8 and 16.1 fantasy points. In Week 2, he even displayed previously unseen receiving upside, catching five passes. This type of usage had Pacheco on track for his first career RB1 finish. Then, he broke his leg. Unfortunately, the injury completely undid all the good will Pacheco had earned.
During his absence, the Chiefs struggled on the ground. Carson Steele was never the answer, leading them to sign old friend Kareem Hunt off the street. Hunt was obviously not the guy they remembered from 2017, but he was good enough to be their lead back.
When Pacheco returned in Week 13, the Chiefs understandably eased him in. Then in Weeks 14, and 15, they were poised to take the training wheels off to reestablish him as the main guy. Except, that’s not what happened. The Chiefs tried. Pacheco couldn’t do it.
Pacheco earned 14 and 13 carries in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively, but only managed 3.2 yards per carry over those two games. That was it for a team fighting for the No. 1 overall seed. They restored Hunt to the lead back role, with Pacheco mixing in sparingly. Pacheco never played more than 40% of the snaps the rest of the season. In the NFL playoffs, he averaged six opportunities per game.
Which Version Pacheco Will We Get in 2025?
Based on what Pacheco showed as a player in 2023 and the first two weeks of 2024, it’s pretty safe to blame the injury for his late-season struggles. He wasn’t 100% and it showed.
If this were Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley or Joe Mixon, we wouldn’t care long-term. We’d chalk it up to the injury and expect them to return to their usual selves the next. But since Pacheco is a former seventh-round pick, that concern kind of never goes away.
The Chiefs have nothing invested in Pacheco. They cast him aside when he wasn’t performing last season. Yes, it was due to the injury. But Hunt performed well enough that the team opted to bring him back. While they didn’t sign anyone major, they did bring in Elijah Mitchell, who was once the 49ers RB1 (but suffers from a similar issue of being a former sixth-rounder), as well as drafted Brashard Smith in the seventh round. Smith may be another seventh-rounder, but this isn’t a situation where anyone truly has the inside track. It will come down to which back performs the best.
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Now, to be clear, with all things being equal, I do believe Pacheco to be the most talented of the bunch. That’s where the potential value lies in fantasy football.
If Pacheco can return to pre-injury form, this should be his backfield once again. It may not be at the level it was trending toward to start last season, as Hunt has earned a meaningful role, but it won’t be Hunt 1a and Pacheco 1b.
#Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco is putting in work to get back to peak form after an injury plagued season. 💪 pic.twitter.com/PPSgfgbRCt
— Starcade Media (@StarcadeMediaKC) May 4, 2025
Pacheco’s RB23 ADP presents a massive opportunity. It could very well backfire. There is a scenario where Pacheco is only a slightly better version of the guy who didn’t surpass 8.1 fantasy points in a game from Week 13 onward. But what if he’s 80% of the guy we were getting if he never got hurt?
Pacheco has the talent is in an offense good enough to propel him to a high RB2 finish. That’s a tremendous return on investment at cost. I have Pacheco ranked as my RB23 because he is a perfectly symmetrical player.
Pacheco will not cost this much again. He either restores his value and goes much earlier next year or it’s over and we never draft him again. There’s really no middle ground. Whether you choose to draft Pacheco depends on how much risk you are willing to take on.
Frank Ammirante’s Isiah Pacheco Fantasy Projection
Isiah Pacheco is coming off a disappointing season where he didn’t look like himself following a fractured fibula, which caused him to take a backseat in the Chiefs’ backfield in favor of Kareem Hunt. However, reports out of camp have been positive, with Pacheco showing a renewed burst that made him a coveted running back in fantasy drafts last season.
The problem is that Pacheco’s price has moved up towards players like Tony Pollard. It was more exciting to get him earlier in the offseason, when he was 20-plus picks cheaper. You also have to consider that the Chiefs still have Hunt along with Elijah Mitchell and rookie Brashard Smith on the roster.Â
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While obviously not each of these backs will see action, there’s a good chance that one or two will take away volume from Pacheco. Considering that, despite positive news in the offseason, we haven’t seen Pacheco look great on the field, so we can’t confirm that he’s back to his previous form.
You have to account for the risk that he’s never the same player, which is why I’m reluctant to pull the trigger at his enhanced price.
