Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely earned himself a larger role last season, but still played second fiddle to Mark Andrews. With Andrews getting older and possibly nearing the end of his time in Baltimore, could this be the season Likely posts TE1 numbers in fantasy football?
Isaiah Likely Fantasy Outlook
Likely entered the league as a 22-year-old fourth-rounder from a small school. Although he had dominant college numbers, his athletic measurables left much to be desired. Then, he joined a Ravens team with a perennial top-three tight end.
To Likely’s credit, he’s improved every year of his career. However, at no point has he graduated to weekly fantasy starter.
Isaiah Likely can really move pic.twitter.com/Tfra9761wJ
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 26, 2023
Two years ago, Likely had a stretch where he was just that, averaging 12.1 fantasy points per game in the seven games he played without Andrews to close out the regular season.
Last year, there were reports that Likely would have a much larger standalone role even with Andrews back healthy. In Week 1, that rang true, and it appeared Likely might be the tight end you wanted in Baltimore. Likely opened the season with nine receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. He scored 26.1 fantasy points.
Naturally, fantasy managers rushed to the waiver wire to add Likely. After all, not many tight ends can have weeks like the one Likely just had.
Unsurprisingly, that wound up being Likely’s best game of the season. He wouldn’t even come close to matching.
Likely never finished higher than overall TE4 any other week. He had just three more games with double-digit fantasy points. Even during the early-season weeks when Andrews was barely being used, Likely did not benefit.
His nine Week 1 receptions represented 21% of his season total. His 111 yards accounted for 23% of his season total. Although his PPG average did increase overall, Likely was no closer to being a startable tight end.
Likely’s snap share increased to 60.5%, but he ran a route on 52.8% of pass plays for the second year. That’s not going to cut it.
Does Likely Have TE1 Upside?
Despite Likely not making himself into a fantasy option, he did eat into Andrews’ fantasy value. Andrews’ snap share was just 61.7%, 25th in the league, and he ran a route on 58.3% of pass plays, 22nd in the league.
From 2019 to 2023, Andrews’ lowest target share was 22.2%. He was in the top four in target share each of those seasons. Last year, he commanded a 15.3% target share, 18th in the league. At his peak, Andrews saw a targets-per-route rate as high as 42.4%. Last year, it was 23.6%, 18th in the league. The emergence of Likely as a viable alternative certainly played a role.
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With that said, there isn’t any realistic scenario where Likely becomes the Ravens’ primary tight end as long as Andrews is on the team. At some point in the next couple of years, Andrews will likely be gone. When that happens, we can revisit the Likely outlook. But that doesn’t help anyone in 2025. Plus, Likely is now dealing with a foot fracture that jeopardizes his Week 1 status.
Likely’s ADP correctly sits way down at TE19. I also have him ranked at TE19, and he’s only even that high because I understand the contingent value he possesses should a now 30-year-old Andrews get hurt. But Likely is what he is: the ever-rare handcuff tight end. Fantasy managers can and will flock to the waiver wire to add Likely if Andrews goes down. But in your fantasy drafts, you should take a tight end far earlier than the TE19.
Mason LeBeau‘s Isaiah Likely Fantasy Projection
Isaiah Likely is one of my favorite players who has been continuously kept in a timeshare at both his position and in the spread-out offense of the Ravens. As last year proved, if Mark Andrews is healthy and available, he’ll be the first one up. Likely will always be worked in, but not at a high enough clip to be relied upon.
Like plenty of others, I was also tricked by his TE1 finish in the season opener, only to insert him into my lineup for a handful of duds. In Week Five, he once again had a great week, but you probably benched him by that rate. Hopefully, you didn’t fall into the same trap again, because he didn’t have a top-15 finish again until Week 13.
Likely will remain relevant throughout the season, but it’ll be too hard to predict when he’ll be a usage asset. Because of a preseason injury, he’ll miss the start of the season. So, in a rare situation, Likely finds himself as the ideal TE handcuff to Mark Andrews — a player you can’t really start with confidence, but a potential league winner if Andrews were to miss any time.