George Kittle has been football’s best tight end for this decade. Yes, he’s better than Travis Kelce. He just wasn’t better than Kelce in fantasy football…at least until last year. With the San Francisco 49ers dealing with offensive personnel changes and some injury uncertainty, is Kittle the one likely to benefit the most with an increased receiving role, making him a priority target for fantasy managers this season?
George Kittle Fantasy Outlook
Heading into last season, the fantasy community was essentially sleeping on Kittle. He was one of my favorite players to target because his average draft position (ADP) didn’t align with his talent and offensive situation.
The issue with Kittle as a fantasy asset has always been that he’s too good at football. Seriously, in fantasy, we want the best pass-catching tight ends. However, we don’t necessarily want them to be elite at blocking. We want them good enough at blocking to keep them on the field, but not so amazing that they are asked to block instead of run routes.
Kelce has been the best fantasy tight end for almost a decade, but he’s never been a better football player than Kittle. Fantasy managers may have perceived it that way because we don’t consider (nor should we care) about blocking.
George Kittle has been the most efficient TE in the league for years, and it isn’t even close.
Other contenders who didn’t quite fit on the tweet: Dallas Goedert (2.07 YPRR), Travis Kelce (2.01), Jonnu Smith (1.93), Trey McBride (1.93) https://t.co/IBR6Dsp5R2
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) June 2, 2025
Kittle is the best blocking tight end in football. As a result, he didn’t line up purely as a receiver in many situations. From 2019 to 2023, Kittle’s slot rate was just 16.7%. He always had a high route participation rate, but he often chipped and leaked out rather than purely running routes.
Kittle’s best fantasy season came in 2018 when, unsurprisingly, he had the highest slot rate of his career at 23%. Since that 2018 season, Kittle’s fantasy points per game have declined yearly.
At first, it was minimal. Going from 16.0 PPG to 15.9 to 15.6 meant nothing. Then, in 2021, his production took a steeper dip to 14.1 PPG. It fell to 13.4 PPG in 2022 before bottoming out at 12.7 PPG in 2023.
With Kittle over 30 years old, fantasy managers were souring a bit on the tight end. As talented as he was, the fantasy numbers weren’t following and it was easy to see why.
Early in his career, Kittle saw target shares in the high 20s. More importantly, the overall passing volume of the 49ers’ offense was higher, with Kittle seeing at least 7.6 targets per game from 2018 to 2020. The volume came down by 0.8 targets per game in 2021. It fell to 5.7 and 5.6 targets per game in 2022 and 2023. The trend was pretty clear.
Last season, though, things felt different. Although we may not have known it then, the 49ers weren’t the same juggernaut of a team. They would end up needing Kittle more as a receiver. But I was mainly targeting Kittle because of how far his ADP had fallen.
Kittle responded with his best season since 2018, averaging 15.8 PPG. His slot rate was back over 20%. He saw an uptick in targets per game to 6.3. And he was incredibly efficient, leading all tight ends with 3.1 yards per route run, 11.8 yards per target, and 14.2 yards per reception.
Naturally, Kittle’s ADP is higher this year than last. However, he’s firmly behind Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. This is a situation where overall ADP matters. Kittle is correctly the TE3, but that information alone is not enough.
Bowers and McBride go in the second round, while Kittle is typically selected at the end of the fourth. That gap is too large. It’s not that Bowers and McBride aren’t deserving of going that early. Rather, the distance between them and Kittle is greater than their production and 2025 outlooks suggest it should be.
Kittle is set up even better for success in 2025. The 49ers aren’t the dominant team they were when they went to multiple Super Bowls. They’re still very good, but the risk of them blowing teams out and sitting on leads is less. That presents an opportunity for more passing, which is a good thing for all their receiving weapons.
More importantly, the offense isn’t as crowded. Deebo Samuel Sr. is in Washington. Brandon Aiyuk is set to miss the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. Even when he returns, he won’t be his usual self immediately. Jauan Jennings is nursing a lingering calf strain. Christian McCaffrey is healthy, but is coming off a season in which he played just four games.
This receiving group is pretty wide open for the first time in the Kyle Shanahan era. Their starting wide receivers project to be Jennings and Ricky Pearsall.
Now, this offense is not without its warts from a fantasy perspective. It still runs through McCaffrey. Yet, even in a season where McCaffrey missed all but four games, the game plan didn’t change. The 49ers want to play slow as molasses, control the clock, and run the ball.
Over the past two seasons, no team has run plays at a slower pace than the 49ers’ 30.5 seconds per snap. The fact that the next slowest team, the Titans, are nearly a full second faster than the 49ers (29.6) is outrageous.
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San Francisco also has a 46% neutral game script run rate over the past two seasons. That’s good for eighth in the league. As a result, Brock Purdy averaged 27.75 pass attempts per game in 2023 and 30.3 per game in 2024.
There is reason for optimism in 2025, though. As I mentioned above, the 49ers aren’t as good as they used to be. Therefore, they may be unable to dominate games, resulting in more passing. We saw a glimpse of that last year, as Purdy’s attempts per game ticked up by 2.5.
Kittle is an elite talent who has shown no signs of decline.
George Kittle is aging like fine wine. Tracking data route efficiency has improved every year of his career pic.twitter.com/bKXV6ffKW1
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) April 30, 2025
There’s a legitimate scenario in which he is Purdy’s most trusted receiver and leads this team in targets. I also have Kittle ranked as my TE3, but I believe he’s worthy of a third-round pick. Depending on the wide receivers and running backs available, I am open to taking him in the fourth round if I can get him.
Dan Fornek’s George Kittle Fantasy Projection
George Kittle is an efficiency monster. Kittle produced a TE1 overall season in 2024, earning the sixth most targets (92) and the fifth most receptions (78) among tight ends. Kittle was third in yards (1,106) and tied for second in touchdowns (8), which pushed him to 15.8 PPR points per game.
Kittle was fifth among all pass catchers in yards per route run (2.88) and 14th in yards after the catch (174). He isn’t just one of the most dynamic tight ends in the NFL; he’s one of the most dynamic weapons among all pass catchers. He will be even more appealing in 2025, given the 49ers ‘ catching room.
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San Francisco traded away Deebo Samuel this offseason, and Brandon Aiyuk still does not have a return timeline from his 2024 ACL and MCL tear. Kittle averages over 15 receiving yards and 1.82 more PPR points per game without both players during their time together on the 49ers. He is poised to see even more pass game opportunities, even with the return of Christian McCaffrey.
Kittle doesn’t need a ton of targets to put up big fantasy weeks, but if he were to see a modest increase, he could easily be the first 18.0 scorer in fantasy since 2022 (Travis Kelce). He could finish as a repeat TE1 overall, and an increased target share maximizes his elite efficiency.
