Since his unexpected breakout three years ago, Geno Smith has been a better real-life quarterback than a fantasy football one. He’s had stretches of QB1 production and always pops up on the streaming radar, but he’s never really been a consistent set-it-and-forget-it starter. Could a move to the Las Vegas Raiders and reuniting with old head coach Pete Carroll be just what Smith needs?
Geno Smith Fantasy Outlook
Maybe this is one of those “debating no one” situations where everyone actually agrees with me, but it feels as though Smith doesn’t get the credit he deserves. The stigma of being a failure for the first eight years of his career is hard to erase. But Smith is a different player now — a better one. He’s unquestionably one of the 32 best quarterbacks walking the planet.
During his three years as the Seahawks’ starting QB, Smith posted seasons of 18.5, 15.7, and 16.5Â fantasy points per game. That first year may appear to be substantially better, but the difference was just touchdowns. Smith threw 30 touchdowns in 2022, against 20 and 21 in the subsequent two years.
It’s fair to argue that 2024 was Smith’s best performance as a quarterback. He completed 70.4% of his passes, throwing for 4,320 yards, while adding 272 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. Smith was only the overall QB15, but he posted QB1-level numbers eight times and was a viable streamer another 2-4 times, depending on your threshold.
Smith is never afraid to push the ball downfield. Since emerging as a starter in 2022, Smith is sixth in the league with 146 completions of 20+ yards. Of course, it hasn’t hurt to have DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to throw to.
Geno Smith delivered a 73% catchable ball rate on throws of 20+ air yards from a clean pocket in 2024.
QB3 (out of 35 qualifiers)
(Source: @FantasyPtsData) https://t.co/lHO815iZq3 pic.twitter.com/4oVsHlwwkj
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 15, 2025
This year, Smith has a solid supporting cast in Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Plus, the Raiders added rookie second-rounder Jack Bech. The issue is that neither Bowers nor Meyers is really a downfield guy. As a result, we could see Smith transition to more underneath passes, which could negatively impact his weekly upside.
More importantly, though, is the incoming change in the Raiders’ offensive approach. Under former head coach Antonio Pierce, they wanted to be a run-first team. Unfortunately, their lack of talent prevented this from being the case. As a result, they wound up throwing the ball 58% of the time in neutral game script, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
It is interesting that in Carroll’s final two years in Seattle, the Seahawks were near the top of the league in neutral game script pass rate. However, that was more by force than by choice. If we go back to prime Russell Wilson years like 2018 and 2019, the Seahawks were last (46%) and third-to-last (50%) in neutral game script pass rate.
Perhaps the more important analysis is looking at the team from 2010 to 2015. Those were Carroll’s first six seasons with the Seahawks. Most relevant is the fact that this was the Marshawn Lynch era.
During this timeframe, the Seahawks had a 48% neutral game script run rate, the second highest in the league. The clear takeaway is that if you give Carroll a workhorse running back, he wants to use him. This year, the Raiders spent the No. 6 overall pick on Ashton Jeanty.
At the same time, the Raiders may have to throw the ball if they are trailing. The Raiders check in at No. 21 in PFSN’s 2025 Defense rankings. Smith has shown an ability to air it out successfully when asked. In the right matchups, he will be a QB1.
Smith’s ADP is downright disrespectful at QB25. Quarterback is very deep this year, and there are a lot of players outside the top 12 who could crack that top 12. It’s why I, too, have Smith ranked at QB25.
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While he’s a lock to outperform his ADP, getting the QB15 at a QB25 price is not helping us win fantasy matchups. There are younger quarterbacks with higher upside worth taking ahead of him.
There is quite literally a 100% chance you see Smith’s name pop up multiple times this season as a weekly streamer. Will he graduate to an every-week starter? It’s certainly in his range of outcomes. But there’s no need for fantasy managers to make him their QB1.
Dan Fornek’s Geno Smith Fantasy Projection
There was hope that a new coaching staff could help Geno Smith return to the levels he hit when he finished as the QB9 in fantasy points per game (17.9) in 2022. Unfortunately for optimistic fantasy managers, that was not the case.
Smith did set career-highs in completion percentage (70.4) and passing yards (4,320), but had just 21 touchdowns with 15 interceptions in 2024. The veteran quarterback struggled behind one of the least talented offensive lines in the NFL despite having DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett at receiver. Smith’s QB16 finish (15.6 PPG) was fine, but hardly impactful in fantasy football.
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The veteran quarterback was surprisingly traded to the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason, which will reunite Smith with the coach (Pete Carroll) who got the most out of him in 2022. Additionally, Smith will also benefit from an upgrade in offensive coordinator (Chip Kelly) and offensive line compared to last season. He will also arguably have stronger weapons to lean on in the passing attack with tight end Brock Bowers, wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty.
Smith will once again be a top 20 quarterback in fantasy football in his new surroundings, who will have the occasional top 12 week, given the talent surrounding him on offense. However, he lacks a consistent rushing floor and could easily find himself quarterbacking one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL in 2025.
