Since his unexpected breakout three years ago, Geno Smith has been a better real-life quarterback than a fantasy football one. He’s had stretches of QB1 production and always pops up on the streaming radar, but he’s never really been a consistent set-it-and-forget-it starter. Could a move to the Las Vegas Raiders and reuniting with old head coach Pete Carroll be just what Smith needs?
Geno Smith Fantasy Outlook
Maybe this is one of those “debating no one” situations where everyone actually agrees with me, but it feels as though Smith doesn’t get the credit he deserves. The stigma of being a failure for the first eight years of his career is hard to erase. But Smith is a different player now — a better one. He’s unquestionably one of the 32 best quarterbacks walking the planet.
During his three years as the Seahawks’ starting QB, Smith posted seasons of 18.5, 15.7, and 16.5 fantasy points per game. That first year may appear to be substantially better, but the difference was just touchdowns. Smith threw 30 touchdowns in 2022, against 20 and 21 in the subsequent two years.
It’s fair to argue that 2024 was Smith’s best performance as a quarterback. He completed 70.4% of his passes, throwing for 4,320 yards, while adding 272 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. Smith was only the overall QB15, but he posted QB1-level numbers eight times and was a viable streamer another 2-4 times, depending on your threshold.
Smith is never afraid to push the ball downfield. Since emerging as a starter in 2022, Smith is sixth in the league with 146 completions of 20+ yards. Of course, it hasn’t hurt to have DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to throw to.
Geno Smith delivered a 73% catchable ball rate on throws of 20+ air yards from a clean pocket in 2024.
QB3 (out of 35 qualifiers)
(Source: @FantasyPtsData) https://t.co/lHO815iZq3 pic.twitter.com/4oVsHlwwkj
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 15, 2025
This year, Smith has a solid supporting cast in Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Plus, the Raiders added rookie second-rounder Jack Bech. The issue is that neither Bowers nor Meyers is really a downfield guy. As a result, we could see Smith transition to more underneath passes, which could negatively impact his weekly upside.
More importantly, though, is the incoming change in the Raiders’ offensive approach. Under former head coach Antonio Pierce, they wanted to be a run-first team. Unfortunately, their lack of talent prevented this from being the case. As a result, they wound up throwing the ball 58% of the time in neutral game script, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
It is interesting that in Carroll’s final two years in Seattle, the Seahawks were near the top of the league in neutral game script pass rate. However, that was more by force than by choice. If we go back to prime Russell Wilson years like 2018 and 2019, the Seahawks were last (46%) and third-to-last (50%) in neutral game script pass rate.
Perhaps the more important analysis is looking at the team from 2010 to 2015. Those were Carroll’s first six seasons with the Seahawks. Most relevant is the fact that this was the Marshawn Lynch era.
During this timeframe, the Seahawks had a 48% neutral game script run rate, the second highest in the league. The clear takeaway is that if you give Carroll a workhorse running back, he wants to use him. This year, the Raiders spent the No. 6 overall pick on Ashton Jeanty.
At the same time, the Raiders may have to throw the ball if they are trailing. The Raiders check in at No. 21 in PFSN’s 2025 Defense rankings. Smith has shown an ability to air it out successfully when asked. In the right matchups, he will be a QB1.
Smith’s ADP is downright disrespectful at QB25. Quarterback is very deep this year, and there are a lot of players outside the top 12 who could crack that top 12. It’s why I, too, have Smith ranked at QB25.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
While he’s a lock to outperform his ADP, getting the QB15 at a QB25 price is not helping us win fantasy matchups. There are younger quarterbacks with higher upside worth taking ahead of him.
There is quite literally a 100% chance you see Smith’s name pop up multiple times this season as a weekly streamer. Will he graduate to an every-week starter? It’s certainly in his range of outcomes. But there’s no need for fantasy managers to make him their QB1.
Mason LeBeau’s Geno Smith Fantasy Projection
Geno Smith’s ADP has fallen too low, and I do not know why. Sure, if you want to point to two disappointing seasons with Shane Waldron and Ben Grubb as the playcallers behind horrific offensive lines, I can understand some hesitation. But his current price is around Cam Ward or Aaron Rodgers. What’s going on here?
For someone soon to be 35, I don’t think the community sees him as an “upside” commodity. I get the hesitation for a player in the Chip Kelly offense, and after drafting RB Ashton Jeanty, it gives this the appearance of a “run-heavy” Vegas offense.
Yet, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Jared Goff are still going well ahead of Smith. If anything, I’d expect the Kelly offense to be fast-paced, Jeanty to get the ball through the air plenty, and Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers to be enough to power a good passing offense.
Furthermore, the defense still looks quite bad, especially in the secondary. The Raiders won’t have the benefit of clock control against most teams and will have to pass plenty to catch up. At his current price, Geno Smith is a STEAL for Superflex leagues, and someone I’d be very content with in 1QB leagues if you want to wait on the position. Pair him with an upside pick like Anthony Richardson or Sam Darnold late, and you’ll be guaranteed a safe floor any given week.
