Since his strong rookie season, fantasy football managers have been gearing up for New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson to emerge as a true WR1. For the third consecutive year, though, we are paying for something we have yet to see. Is this the year the Jets’ pass catcher finally lives up to expectations?
Garrett Wilson Fantasy Outlook
Here we are again with Wilson. As a rookie, fantasy managers barely even drafted Wilson. That made his 12.7 fantasy points per game a great value relative to cost. Naturally, this led to expectations of a traditional sophomore year leap. The Jets had signed Aaron Rodgers. So, surely, Wilson would be even better no longer having to deal with mostly Zach Wilson as his quarterback.
Unfortunately, Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon four plays into the season, and suddenly, 2023 was 2022 all over again. Wilson had a nearly identical year, averaging 12.5 PPG, making him a massive bust at his 1/2 turn ADP.
Heading into 2024, Rodgers returned and was presumably healthy. But after two middling seasons, did fantasy managers change their tune on Wilson? Not at all. His price remained exactly where it was the year prior.
The good news is that we did see progression from Wilson. The bad news is it wasn’t enough.
Wilson averaged 14.8 PPG, which was a significant leap from the 12.5 and 12.7 PPG of the previous years. However, it wasn’t up to the expectations of a late-first/early second-round selection. Let’s try to figure out what happened this time, as he had a full season of Rodgers.
Wilson played 96.5% of the snaps, which led the league. His target share went from 31.1% in 2023 to 26% in 2024. His yards per route run average was 1.71, a 0.15 increase from the previous season.
It wasn’t advanced metrics that explained Wilson’s improvement, though. It was relatively simple. In fact, Rodgers delivered more accurate passes, leading to Wilson’s catch rate spiking from 56.5% to 65.6%. He also scored as many touchdowns (seven) as he did in his first two seasons combined. But why wasn’t he better?
In actuality, Wilson was better. He averaged 16.6 PPG over the season’s first six games. That would’ve certainly been good enough to justify what fantasy managers paid for him. Then, the Jets traded for Rodgers’ buddy, Davante Adams. In 11 games with Adams, Wilson averaged 14.2 PPG.
Heading into the 2025 season, Wilson’s status as the Jets’ WR1 is more solidified than ever. New York has one of the worst WR rooms in the NFL, aside from Wilson. At this point, it’s unclear who will end up being their WR2 and WR3, but it will be some combination of Allen Lazard, Josh Reynolds, Xavier Gipson, Arian Smith, Tyler Johnson, and Malachi Corley. Wilson’s target share should push 30% once again.
#Jets HC Aaron Glenn on what he’s learning about Garrett Wilson:
“Give him the ball as much as possible. Give him the ball as much as possible. That’s it.” pic.twitter.com/unjh6S0IYy
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 21, 2025
New Jets QB Justin Fields presents challenges, though. Fields is not the best passer, with his strength coming from his mobility. However, he was able to propel DJ Moore to his best season in 2023 when Moore averaged 16.9 PPG.
Wilson’s biggest concern will be the reduction in volume. Moore saw an elite 28.9% target share in 2023. Yet, that amounted to 17 fewer targets than Wilson saw last year on a lower target share.
Fields averaged 26.7 attempts per game in his six starts with the Steelers last season. During the 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Bears, Fields averaged 24.6 attempts per game.
To put that into perspective, Rodgers averaged 34.3 attempts per game last season. The year prior, when Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1, the Jets’ backups averaged 35.3 attempts per game.
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With all that said, Wilson is a very reasonable selection this year for the first time since his rookie season, as his WR15 ADP puts him toward the end of the second round.
I have Wilson ranked as my WR15, right in line with consensus. While I’m not opposed to drafting Wilson this season, my preference for other players in that part of fantasy drafts will likely result in my not ending up with him anywhere. But if you want to take a chance on this being the year he ascends to the ranks of the elite, by all means, that is well within his range of outcomes.
Dan Fornek’s Garrett Wilson Fantasy Projection
Garrett Wilson has struggled to get over the hump in fantasy. Wilson had a career-high 14.8 PPR points per game with Aaron Rodgers under center, leading him to a WR18 finish among receivers with a minimum of eight games played. Unfortunately, it was another season where Wilson was a better real-life wide receiver than a dependable fantasy option.
Through three seasons, Wilson has averaged 156.3 targets, 93.0 receptions, 1,083 yards, and 4.7 touchdowns per season. In 2024, he saw the fourth most targets among wide receivers in the NFL (153), but had his production capped by the 86th highest average depth of target (7.9) and the 85th highest catchable target rate (64.1%). Wilson has never had a catchable target rate above 68%.
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That may not change much in 2025 with Justin Fields taking over as the Jets’ starting quarterback. Since 2021, Fields has never had a completion percentage above expectation above 1.1%. Fields consistently leans on his first reads and checkdowns as a passer, but also struggles with his accuracy down the field.
Wilson can lead the NFL in targets in 2025, given the lack of target competition in the Jets’ passing attack. We have also seen Fields support a WR1 season (D.J. Moore, 2023) based on pure passing volume. Wilson is a safe WR2 in fantasy football who can be a low-end WR1 based on volume.
