Every take I make comes with a confidence level, and most of the time I’m happy to plant my flag and defend it to the death. Not these ones. What follows are the players I’m either chasing or fading, where the doubt never quite went away; the calls where the argument against me is real. I still believe each of them enough to act on it, but if any of my 2026 takes are going to blow up in my face, my money is on the names below.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane is going as the RB6. I have him at RB13, and I want to be upfront about something. This fade has nothing to do with the player.
The whole case is the offense around him. Miami tore the thing down to the studs, and the version taking the field in 2026 could be genuinely anemic. Fantasy running backs need their teams to move the ball. If the Dolphins can’t sustain drives, Achane simply won’t be on the field enough or close enough to the end zone to matter. Picture an offense averaging a touchdown and a half per game. That is a hard ceiling on his scoring no matter how the touches shake out.
The passing game is just as unforgiving. Achane’s 2025 leaned on a fat target share inside a functional offense. Now Malik Willis is under center, and if he’s throwing 25 times a game, even a 20% share of that pie lands well short of what Achane produced a year ago. Fewer attempts, fewer drives, fewer chances. That’s the fade.
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Here’s what keeps nagging at me, though. Achane is an elite talent. I’m certain of that, and I don’t say it lightly. The opportunity is going to be there regardless of how bad Miami gets, because there’s nobody else to feed.
Truly special backs can create on their own. Achane can turn nothing into a 40-yard score, and splash plays don’t require a functioning offense to happen. We’ve watched elite players put up RB1 numbers on bad teams before.
If that’s how this plays out, I’ll have made the mistake of prioritizing situation over talent.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I haven’t exactly been quiet about Bucky Irving this summer. He hasn’t just been a fade for me. He’s been the fade; the worst click on the board at running back, and I’ve said so at every opportunity.
The case rests on two legs. Kenny Gainwell monopolizes the receiving work in Tampa Bay, and Sean Tucker takes the short-yardage and goal-line carries. Strip both of those away from a running back, and there’s no real path to fantasy points. I remain supremely confident about the first leg. Gainwell is a great pick this season, and I’m not budging on that one.
It’s the goal-line half that has me wavering, and recent events are the reason. Late in the preseason, multiple beat reporters were projecting Josh Williams to make the roster as the RB3 ahead of Tucker. That didn’t come to pass. What did happen is that Tucker had to accept roughly a $1 million pay cut just to stick around.
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Read that for what it is. The Bucs were prepared to release him if he said no. Teams don’t treat players they have real plans for that way. That is how you treat a depth piece; a special teamer; a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency back.
Look closer at his track record and the picture gets murkier. Every time Tucker has received meaningful touches, he’s produced. Every one of those stretches, though, came with Irving or Rachaad White hurt. Whenever both were healthy, Todd Bowles would talk about how Tucker earned more work. But the touches never materialized.
This raises the question I can’t shake. What if Tucker’s goal-line role over the back half of last season was simply a product of Irving’s shoulder? We know Irving was nowhere close to 100% when he came back, and the offseason surgery confirmed as much. Take that variable away and the whole arrangement might revert.
Even if I’m dead right about Gainwell, Irving holding the goal-line job means his upside is considerably higher than I’m giving him credit for. So here’s the moment I’m dreading. It’s Week 1. The Bucs get inside the five. And here comes Irving to take his first carry from that range since 2024. That will be the instant I know I’ve made a mistake.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
Let me be clear before I talk myself into anything. Terry McLaurin is a flag plant. He’s my second-favorite wide receiver target behind Jaylen Waddle. He’s my WR17 against a WR25 ADP. I am still drafting him in every league I can. None of what follows changes that.
I do want to be honest about the evaluation, though. McLaurin is 31 years old and coming off a season wrecked by injuries. His efficiency held up beautifully, which is the entire backbone of my case. But what if the upside I’m projecting simply isn’t in there anymore?
The target projection is where I could be off. I think McLaurin has a real path to 140 targets as the undisputed alpha in Washington. What if Jayden Daniels distributes the ball more evenly than I’m expecting? Picture Stefon Diggs landing around 110 targets while McLaurin sits at 120. I believe the gap between those two should be considerably wider than that. There’s a genuine chance I’m wrong.
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Here’s the part that really gnaws at me. My fade of A.J. Brown comes from historical research I did showing that perennial top receivers who are very good, but not quite elite, essentially never post career-best seasons at age 29 or older. McLaurin is 31. And I’m out here predicting a career year.
I don’t think that’s hypocritical, to be fair. The Brown problem is the price, because he’s going in the middle of the second round, and that cost demands a career year. McLaurin isn’t anywhere near that range. The underlying logic still applies to both, though, and I’d be lying if I said it didn’t bother me.
If McLaurin turns out to be the same receiver he’s been for most of his career, setting aside that outlier 13-touchdown 2024, he’s still a perfectly fine pick at his cost. He just won’t be the must-draft player I’m telling everyone he is.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Three years running, the fantasy world has told us this is the year for Garrett Wilson. Three years running, it hasn’t been. Outside of his rookie season, Wilson has never once lived up to his ADP. Not a single time.
And here we are again, being asked to spend a top-four-round pick on a wide receiver attached to the New York Jets, a subpar quarterback, and the worst head coach in the NFL. Is Geno Smith the man who finally unlocks him? Is Frank Reich, freshly out of retirement, bringing the offensive creativity required for Wilson to touch his ceiling? My answer to both is no.
None of that means I doubt the player. Wilson is talented. Put him on a functional offense with real coaching and a real quarterback, and he’d be a second-round pick. Swap him with Rashee Rice, and he probably sneaks into Round 1. The belief in the ability is there.
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What stops me is the history. I dug into this, and only five first-round wide receivers have ever failed to post a 16-plus PPG season in any of their first four years and then gone on to do it in year five or later. Of those five, four had at least reached 15 PPG at some point in that opening stretch. Wilson’s career best is 14.8. To break out now, he’d have to become a historical outlier.
Here’s my hesitation with my own work. As strong as that research is, the sample size is not that large. Wilson’s offensive circumstances have also been uniquely miserable, arguably worse than what most of those comparisons dealt with. Maybe he’s the exception. I’m open to it.
I still don’t see truly elite upside for Wilson as long as he’s on this team. But if he gets to 16 PPG, he’ll have been an excellent pick at cost, and I’ll have been wrong about a player I already admitted I like.
DJ Moore, WR, Buffalo Bills
DJ Moore is another one I’m fading hard, and the data behind it is about as strong as any case on this list. He’s 29. He’s coming off career lows in nearly every efficiency metric that matters. Meanwhile, his defenders are busy explaining all of it away, which is precisely what happened with Allen Robinson back in 2021 right before he did nothing in a better spot.
Then I picture the other version of this season. What if Moore walks into Buffalo and becomes an alpha target hog for Josh Allen in a receiver room with no real competition for looks?
Let me be clear about something. I am not going to suddenly start drafting DJ Moore. The arguments in his favor are legitimate, though, and I understand them.
The Stefon Diggs comparison people keep reaching for mostly falls apart, at least. Moore is three years older than Diggs was when he arrived in Buffalo. It’s an entirely different coaching staff running the offense. Diggs is also a considerably better talent than Moore ever was.
Here’s the thing, though. Moore doesn’t have to be Diggs. He just has to be a solid WR2, and at his cost, he’d be a great pick. That’s the bar, and it isn’t especially high.
I believe Moore is declining. I don’t believe he’s totally cooked. Even a version of him operating at 75% of his prime could work as the clear top target for Josh Allen. I see a world where this one goes sideways on me.
