We are all human, and we are all excited for fantasy football season. That’s great and all, but it can lead to some overreacting. Think about it. You’ve had months to cultivate your player takes. Whether that means consuming our content, doing the legwork yourself, or some combination of the two, you’ve put plenty of thought into how you stack everyone up against one another.
History suggests we are going to be wrong on plenty. There is a lot of turnover in fantasy scoring leaderboards, just like there are the NFL standings, but the art of staying patient is something you need to get comfortable with.
Underrated Fantasy QBs To Stick With Past Week 1
Over the past five seasons, we’ve had 20 instances where a QB finishes the season as a top-12 performer on a per-game basis but was not drafted as such.
One-third of the quarterbacks who finish the season as a “starter” are not drafted as such entering the season, so there is likely a viable player on your wire right now, free of charge.
Current QB ADP (PFSN Mock Draft Simulator)
- Josh Allen (19.3 overall)
- Lamar Jackson (21.4)
- Jayden Daniels (26.8)
- Jalen Hurts (27.7)
- Joe Burrow (31.9)
- Patrick Mahomes (42.6)
- Baker Mayfield (53.4)
- Bo Nix (62.4)
- Kyler Murray (74.3)
- Brock Purdy (78.5)
- Justin Herbert (83.5)
- Dak Prescott (89.3)
“Be curious, not judgmental.”
We are to assume that those value picks are out there, and that is why I like to stash my favorite cheap quarterback ahead of Week 1. I’m curious about them and will not be overly judgmental about their Week 1 performance. Why? Because it doesn’t matter.
That’s not true, but it doesn’t matter as much as you’d think. Those 20 overachieving QBs that I mentioned earlier? Here’s a pretty chart of those names and how they did (fantasy points and ranking) in the first month of their surprising season.
The majority of the top-12 QBs for the season (forget the underrated options, all top-12 finishers in those five seasons) didn’t score 20 points in Week 1. It’s not rare for the top names at the position to ease their way into the year, and that’s even more true for the underappreciated options.
Of the 20, only seven performed as a QB1 in Week 1. They weren’t popular in your draft room and didn’t pop off the screen in the first week.
But if you trusted your process and stayed true to your work with these guys, there’s a very real chance you were sitting on an asset that either helped your team in a significant way or allowed you to improve your standing via the trade market.
Who Are The QB Sleepers To Draft?
If you trust me, you deserve to know the QBs I view as most likely to join this list in 2025. There is obvious risk involved, but these three quarterbacks have more upside in these three QBs than I see them being given credit for in draft rooms.
Justin Fields (Week 1 vs PIT)
This one isn’t bold, as he sits just outside of the top-12 in ADP, but he still technically qualifies. He made this list in 2022, and while the market has largely course-corrected for athletic quarterbacks (the chart above is peppered with pocket passers), drafters are still slotting in pocket specialists like Dak Prescott and Jared Goff ahead of him.
We know that Fields’ mobility can be a cheat code, and given that he has a star WR1, what’s to stop him from being 84% of 2024 Jayden Daniels?
That would give him over 17.5 PPG and the potential to flirt with the top-10 at the position. There’s a decent chance we don’t see that upside to open the season in what projects to be a very slow game.
Still, he could heat up in a hurry (opponents in Weeks 3-5: Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Cowboys) and stands to break the game as the regular season bleeds into the fantasy playoffs.
- Week 13 vs. Falcons (2024: second-highest opponent pass TD%)
- Week 14 vs. Dolphins (Jalen Ramsey and Jevon Holland are gone)
- Week 15 at Jaguars (2024: most YPA allowed)
- Week 16 at Saints (2024: fifth most yards per completion allowed and could be tanking)
Caleb Williams (Week 1 vs MIN)
How many situations are better than the one Williams finds himself in? It’s a short list, and the versatility that he showed us as a rookie has me ranking him as a top-10 signal-caller this season, optimism that the industry doesn’t share.
— Tired —
“How would you draft from the __ position?”
— Wired —
“Here’s how I’d draft from the 13th spot in a 12-man league”
By ADP, you could build this roster (PPR, one-QB) if you picked LAST in every round#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/3dAtf66fnK
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 18, 2025
I’m sticking with it, and that’s not going to change if a crazy, aggressive divisional opponent keeps him quiet in Week 1 as he adjusts to a new offense and a young core around him.
As an OC in Detroit, Ben Johnson elevated Jared Goff to a QB7 finish last season despite just 1.7% of his fantasy points coming on the ground (positional average: 16%). Consider this: since 2018, Williams has five more NFL rushing yards than Goff. Williams was a sophomore in high school when that sample size started.
Brock Purdy (Week 1 at SEA)
I understand that Purdy was the final pick of the 2022 draft, but that’s ancient history at this point. We have north of 1,000 professional throws to elevate, and Purdy is averaging an absurd 8.9 yards per pass. For reference, the leaderboard for YPA over that stretch:
- Purdy: 8.9 yards per pass
- Tua Tagovailoa: 8.1
- Lamar Jackson: 8.9
- Jared Goff: 7.9
- Sam Darnold: 7.9
A road game to open the season with an iffy Jauan Jennings and shuffling at the receiver position as a whole isn’t ideal, but we have enough of a sample to say that Purdy is good at the game.
Brandon Aiyuk should be back at some point, and the Jennings/Pearsall tandem will only gain comfort with their increasing roles. RB Christian McCaffrey and TE George Kittle are elite at their respective positions, and I haven’t even mentioned the big step that Purdy took last season (21.1% of his fantasy production came with his legs, up from 7.6% in 2023).
San Francisco’s nucleus has a Week 14 bye to get healthy for your fantasy postseason, a stretch that includes favorable spots against the Titans, Colts, and Bears.
This trio of quarterbacks requires little in the way of draft day capital and has all the signs of an asset as the season progresses. I encourage you to not only speculate on your favorite of the bunch at your draft, but staying the course, even if the first few weeks don’t return high point totals.
Soppe’s 2025 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
1) Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills
2) Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens
3) Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles
4) Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders
5) Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals
6) Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals
7) Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers
8) Bo Nix | Denver Broncos
>> 9) Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears
10) Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs
11) Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12) C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans
>> 13) Justin Fields | New York Jets
14) Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys
15) Jared Goff | Detroit Lions
16) Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers
17) Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars
18) Drake Maye | New England Patriots
>> 19) Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers
20) J.J. McCarthy | Minnesota Vikings
