Every year, name value tricks fantasy managers into chasing past production and ignoring the trap doors planted throughout the ADP minefield. Want to win your league? You’d better learn to spot the hidden duds and fade them aggressively.
This isn’t a column for the cautious or the consensus-followers. It’s for those determined to torch mistakes before the season even fires up. Below, I’m calling out eight players you should avoid at all costs. The data is brutal, and so is my verdict. If you want more watered-down advice, check out any generic fantasy football article. If you’re going to build a roster that wins, keep reading.
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans: Volume Chaser, Efficiency Loser
Let’s rip the Band-Aid off. The Joe Mixon model is on life support. Last year screamed empty volume: 1,016 yards, 11 touchdowns, but a closer look exposes ugliness. From Week 12 on, Mixon posted just 3.6 yards per carry, logged fewer than 60 rushing yards in five of his last six games, and caught a handful of dump-offs while his explosive runs vanished. In fact, over 23% of his carries resulted in zero or negative yards, and he finished outside the top 40 in explosive runs and missed tackles forced.
Houston’s playoff ride was a blip, not a trend. Both those big games came against bottom-tier run defenses. Now, at 29, dealing with a “mysterious” foot injury, Mixon is being handed nothing. He’s missed all of camp and faces volume threats in Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks.
Touches propped up Mixon’s RB2 floor. Those days are numbered with less juice and more competition. Mixon’s 17.2 fantasy points per game feels like it was farther in the past than just last year. Don’t chase the production. Mixon is limping toward irrelevance and dragging your team down if you reach even a round too early.
Joe Mixon is missing valuable camp time with a foot injury—yet drafters continue reaching for him. Red flag.
— NextGenFFB (@NextGenFFB) July 27, 2025
Cam Skattebo, RB, New York Giants: ADP Trap in Gotham
Cam Skattebo is the classic rookie mirage. He’s outside, hype swamping harsh reality. Coming out of Arizona State with a 4.65 forty, he’s hands-down the slowest relevant rookie back to crack a depth chart this year.
The Giants drafted him on Day 3 and were seemingly excited about it. Yet, he’s been firmly Tyrone Tracy Jr., who’s dominated first-team reps and appears locked in as the starter.
Devin Singletary, a longtime NFL grinder, still lurks with more experience and is currently ahead of Skattebo on the depth chart. Meanwhile, Skattebo already missed the early critical stretch of camp with a hamstring injury, putting him behind the proverbial 8-ball to start his career.
Production profiles are bleak: the Giants’ offense couldn’t run block in 2024, and red-zone trips were rare. Skattebo doesn’t have the burst, opportunity, or scheme fit to push past Tracy or even Singletary. If you draft him at RB33, you’re not gambling for upside. You’re chasing noise and ignoring a flooded backfield. Outside of preseason puff pieces, there is nothing here but wasted picks for desperate teams.
Giants RB Cam Skattebo misses sixth consecutive practice with a hamstring injury. Not the kind of start you want for a rookie fighting for reps.pic.twitter.com/4g1F7JQ2j9
— Big Blue Banter (@BigBlueBanter) August 6, 2025
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Forgotten Handcuff
It’s not enough for a player to be cheap. They have to offer an actual path to usefulness. Rachaad White, despite the RB43 ADP, is just a ghost behind Bucky Irving.
Last season’s second half? Irving out-carried him 82 to 11, out-targeted him in every passing-down situation, and never gave a hint the Bucs would lean back on White even if disaster struck.
Over the final four games, White recorded just 10 carries, six of which came during garbage time in Week 17. Tampa’s staff signaled Sean Tucker would step straight into the lead runner role if Irving missed time, leaving White as nothing but a two-minute drill specialist.
Fantasy managers referencing contingent value are wasting their time and a roster slot. White’s volume cratered, his snap share collapsed, and his fantasy value was only possible early in the year when Irving hadn’t yet emerged. This is pure handcuff vapor. Ignore the price. There’s no legitimate upside here, only a low-ceiling backup.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders: Overpriced, Overhyped
Terry McLaurin’s WR16 ADP tells a story the stats refuse to back up. He set career highs in touchdowns last year, but the rest stayed flat: another middling yardage season, average target share, and an unchanged role.
Those 13 scores are a pure fluke. The previous best in his career was seven. Touchdown Luck always comes knocking, and with Deebo Samuel Sr. joining the receiving room, regression is all but guaranteed.
McLaurin’s never finished above WR20 in points per game, and age won’t help. He just hit 30, with no boost in explosive plays or efficiency. He’s never been a heavy-volume receiver, and now Washington has brought in more target competition. Overpay for the mirage if you want a repeat of last year’s luck. The smart play? Fade.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, Washington Commanders: Living in the Past
Deebo Samuel Sr.’s decline isn’t hypothetical; it’s visible. He averaged just 44.7 yards per game in 2024, posting more duds than impact outings down the stretch and routinely disappearing for game-long cold spells. His only big moments are buried in an outlier 2021 season. Since then? He’s been a magnet for soft-tissue injuries and a regular no-show as a featured player. Samuel had his worst season ever in yards after catch, tackle-breaking, and rushing efficiency (career-low 3.2 yards per carry).
The Commanders didn’t bring him in to be the alpha. He’ll compete with McLaurin while the Commanders have two running backs to take touches, plus Jayden Daniels’ mobility.
Historically, when aging wide receivers show signs of decline, they do not rebound. Consider players like Brandin Cooks and Allen Robinson as recent examples. The most likely scenario is that Samuel continues to decline further and ends up being a wasted pick for fantasy managers.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Seattle Seahawks: Fade the Memories
It’s never easy to say goodbye to legends, but Cooper Kupp is two years into fantasy irrelevance. He’s played just 21 games across two seasons, missing nearly half of 2023 and 2024, resulting in a pitiful 710 yards last year and just three touchdowns. What’s even worse is the data.
this is not good
Cooper Kupp’s rank in ability to get “open”
2021: #15 of 160
2022: #71 of 150
2023: #102 of 153
2024: #141 of 159per ESPN’s player tracking data pic.twitter.com/SSmQ4NT9TY
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 13, 2025
The Rams’ decision to move on says everything you need. Even Sean McVay didn’t bother to offer a restructure.
Seattle’s offense isn’t designed for a lumbering slot man, especially not with Jaxon Smith-Njigba locked in as the top option. Kupp’s only business now is drawing soft coverage and eating dump-off volume. If you’re trusting the name and the 2021 breakout, you’re not paying attention to the way physical skills fade in the NFL.
Kupp’s price is so low that if you’re wrong, it probably won’t matter. But even at his ADP, fantasy managers are better off taking shots on younger players whose best seasons are in front of them.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: Cliff Is Here
Travis Kelce rewrote the rules for tight ends, but every trend dies. He’s about to turn 36 and hit his lowest marks since 2015 — 823 receiving yards, a miserable three scores, and just 10.6 yards per catch.
Kelce’s yards per route run have collapsed (1.67), and Patrick Mahomes now has speed outside with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Hollywood Brown, something he hasn’t had since Tyreek Hill’s departure. Kelce’s target share hit a post-prime low, and his weekly highs were saved only by dump-offs, not red-zone dominance.
This isn’t an ADP value. It’s pure sentimental drafting. TE6 is still way too expensive for a player who is all floor and no ceiling. It’s a hard, cold fall in a harsh position. Do yourself a favor. Spend up for upside, not legacy.
The Travis Kelce show is over. Age, volume, and new weapons signal TE decline. Fade the TE6 price tag. pic.twitter.com/XcjsnkISBZ
— Arrowhead Trends (@ArrowheadTrends) August 5, 2025
Leave nostalgia and unwarranted hype on the draft board. You want clear, profit-driven roster moves? Do the opposite of the crowd and avoid these aging, regressing, or blocked plays.
