Over the past half-decade, the Kansas City Chiefs have largely pushed the right buttons. Most are obvious, but the drafting of WR Rashee Rice in the middle portion of the second round has yet to bear fruit recently for a few reasons (suspension concerns entering last season and a knee injury that ended his season before it had much of a chance to get going).
Fantasy Football Ace: Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs nailed the pick (Jonathan Mingo and Jalin Hyatt were two players picked in the same vicinity), and we seem likely to get one more chance to get his services at a reasonable price.
Over his past 13 full games (I’m ignoring the three routes he ran in Week 4 last season prior to suffering the knee injury), Rice’s numbers are nothing short of special.
- 433 routes
- 104 targets
- 84 catches
- 6 TD
- 4.7 aDOT
- 27.3% target rate (26% in red zone)
That’s a great profile without context, but the deeper you dive, the more impressive it gets.
“Rashee Rice Is a Player That Can Win You Your League”
Since 2020, 32 times a receiver standing at least 5’10” and aged 25 or younger has posted a season with a 24% target rate both overall and in the red zone. As a cumulative, they averaged 16.9 PPG. That would have topped Brian Thomas Jr. for WR11 honors last season.
But we are using a height and volume qualifier. What if we pencil in a QB threshold?
Patrick Mahomes has yet to finish a season worse than QB11 in our QB+ grading metric, making it reasonable to assume that Rice is playing with above-average play under center.
If we shrink the above sample to only include QBs who posted a QB+ rank of 15th or better, the average PPR PPG jumps to 18.3 (Malik Nabers was WR6 in 2024 at 17.1 PPG).
Dart delivered 🎯 @PatrickMahomes
📺: #KCvsATL on NBC/Peacock
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— NFL (@NFL) September 23, 2024
And I haven’t even mentioned the structure of this offense. The Chiefs are easily the highest pass rate over expectation team during the Mahomes era, posting five of the top nine single-season rates over that stretch.
If neither volume nor talent is a concern and the health stuff appears to be in the rearview, why not jump the ADP line to assure yourself exposure to Rice?
Embracing The Current Discount
The NFL ruled this offseason that Rice will have to serve 30 days in jail as a part of his five years of deferred probation, tanking Rice’s ADP in the process. Yes, it appears that a suspension is likely, if not inevitable, but the fantasy season is a marathon, not a sprint, an approach the Chiefs have also taken.
In a perfect world, a ruling comes down before your draft happens, and you can draft with your eyes wide open. Bye weeks don’t kick in until Week 5, and, to the surprise of no one, we know that injuries tick up as the season progresses.
That lowers the impact of any missed time in the early going because the replacement-level production at my disposal is as high as it’ll ever be.
There is some risk that a decision could be reached mid-season and thus impact the fantasy playoffs, but the industry seems to be taking a worst-case scenario in terms of Rice’s adjusted ADP. I’ve seen him selected as a low-end WR3 in recent drafts, something that, in my mind, removes all of the risk from this profile and leaves you with only levels of profit.
RELATED: Chiefs Floated As Landing Spot for 29-TD WR Amid Concerns Around Rashee Rice’s Availability
The tricky part here is knowing when to pounce. I think Rice, with no offseason moving pieces, is a fringe WR1, but you obviously don’t need to treat him as such in your draft.
Now, you’re being asked to choose between his uncertainty in the same range as clear-cut WR2s on their own team (Jaylen Waddle and Jameson Williams, for example) or WR1s with serious quarterback question marks (Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, and Tetairoa McMillan, to name a few).
I entered this offseason with Rice ranked higher than the industry norm, and I’m penalizing him less for the current situation he is in, less than most. That combination has me as bullish on him now as I’ve been at any point during this process, even with the cloud of uncertainty (and yes, that means I’m out on Xaiver Worthy as his ADP skyrockets).
