The Tampa Bay Buccaneers absolutely did not need to draft a wide receiver, let alone one in the first round. Yet, here we are with Emeka Egbuka joining a crowded wide receiving corps with two established stars in front of him. Is there any hope for the rookie in fantasy football this season?
Emeka Egbuka Fantasy Outlook
Last year, Egbuka was considered a first-round dynasty rookie selection. Then, he decided to return for his senior season.
We know the stigma against four-year players is real. However, it can also be taken a bit too far. Early declarations are viewed more favorably because they show an ability to perform at a high level sooner. Ebguka could go to the NFL as a junior. He simply chose not to. Chris Olave did the same thing. Last season, Egbuka caught 81 passes for 1,011 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Ohio State has a good track record for producing competent NFL-caliber wide receivers. Given that Egbuka was pro-ready a year ago, he should be able to hit the ground running.
This feels like Olave’s situation since the talented and NFL-ready WR was dinged for returning to school for an extra year.
Egbuka is a fundamentally sound receiver, so he didn’t need to be fast or super-athletic. But he did it anyway, running a 4.42 40-time for a 97th-percentile speed score.
Emeka Egbuka 2025 #ReceptionPerception Prospect Profile 👀
– 68.1% success rate vs man
– 83.6% success rate vs zone (82nd percentile)
– 81.3% success rate vs press (very limited reps caveat)
– Strong set of handsMy appreciation for Egbuka grew the more games I added to the… pic.twitter.com/r9gSzNLXzH
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) March 28, 2025
The landing spot in Tampa Bay is excellent for Egbuka long-term. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are 32 and 29 years old. Baker Mayfield is only 30 and not going anywhere. As early as 2026, Egbuka could be the WR1 on this team. This does pose a problem specifically in 2025, though.
Fantasy managers are already drawing comparisons between Egbuka’s situation and Rome Odunze’s last year, who was stuck behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba two years ago, who was trapped behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
There is absolutely a scenario where Evans and Godwin are mostly healthy and Egbuka is relegated to WR3 duties all season. As great as Mayfield is, it’s almost impossible for any quarterback to support three highly productive pass catchers. If Evans and Godwin are healthy and performing at peak ability, Egbuka’s ceiling likely rests in the WR3 range.
With that said, Evans missed three games with a hamstring strain last season, and Godwin is coming off a broken ankle. Staying healthy in the NFL is difficult. It’s more likely than not that one of, if not both, Evans and Godwin miss time. There’s also the chance this is the year Evans declines. We have not seen any signs, but it happens quickly, especially for wide receivers with Evans’ skill set.
Any game in which Egbuka can get himself into the WR2 spot on his team presents an opportunity for him to entrench himself as a starter further. Remember, this is a very talented player. If Egbuka can get on the field and make himself undeniable, there’s a possibility that he could force more targets his way.
We must address Jalen McMillan’s breakout over the final five weeks of last season. He posted WR1 numbers for each of those contests. However, if the Bucs were confident with McMillan as their WR3, they would not have drafted Egbuka. Draft capital matters, and I expect Egbuka to open the season clearly ahead of McMillan.
There’s a real chance Egbuka’s rookie year looks like JSN’s or Odunze’s, and he’s barely worth rostering. But we play to win the game. There’s also no denying Egbuka has WR2 upside. Given his WR46 ADP, I am willing to chase that.
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Mayfield is playing like the guy the Browns thought they were getting when they selected him No. 1 overall in 2018. The Bucs also project to have a bad defense. They play in a division with multiple teams in domes and have a lot of potential shootouts on their schedule.
I have Egbuka ranked as my WR36. I am extremely bullish on him. If he can get to around 12 fantasy points per game, that would be a great return on investment.
Mason LeBeau’s Emeka Egbuka Fantasy Projection
I’m happy to say I was ahead of the Emeka Egbuka curve. When I first wrote his piece, he was going in drafts as the WR51, and is now 14 spots higher as WR37. That didn’t help me by the time my drafts started, but I got some good best ball value out of it.
He swapped spots with Chris Godwin, whose injury return looked more and more pessimistic throughout camp. He’s expected to avoid the PUP to start the year, but odds are he won’t have much impact once he does start to play snaps. That lines up Egbuka to slide right into Godwin’s role, which was insanely lucrative that past couple years.
This is a team that passed the ball a lot, and QB Baker Mayfield has his confidence back. Egbuka, meanwhile, was an awesome draft prospect who slipped because of his “ceiling,” but by all means looked like he could be a good pro immediately. Thus far, training camp has supported that narrative.
If WR Mike Evans is healthy, fantastic, Egbuka will have plenty of space to operate over the middle of the field. If Evans isn’t healthy, Egbuka will have an unquestioned target share. It’s a win-win situation. Only Godwin’s full recovery and instant production can truly threaten Egbuka’s fantasy stock.
So, I’m surprised to see him going so low in drafts. Perhaps his ADP will rise rapidly as we get closer to the season and Godwin’s status remains unchanged, but for now, it seems like he’s going under the radar. Rookie receivers can have massive impacts early. He was a pro-ready prospect taken in the first round, and he’s on a high-powered, high-volume offense. What’s not to like?
