The Detroit Lions have been a top-five scoring offense in each of the past four seasons. Ben Johnson left ahead of the 2025 season for the head gig in Chicago, and while the team was still effective, they scored 4.9 fewer points per game.
Drew Petzing was brought in this winter to replace John Morton after the team failed to make the playoffs despite being the preseason favorites. How should dynasty fantasy football managers feel about the move?
Drew Petzing’s Impact on Fantasy Statistics
Petzing graduated from college with a major in economics and minors in both math and philosophy. Five years later, he was hired as an offensive assistant with the Vikings and has been involved in offensive rooms for the past 13 years.
He was a positions coach (quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends at one time or another) for a decade before assuming control of the Cardinals’ offense in 2023. He has a well-rounded profile, but I’m most interested in his time in Arizona, as it was the instance in which he had the most responsibilities put on his plate.
Dropback rate in one-score games
- 2023: 54.6% (30th, league average: 59.7%)
- 2024: 61.5% (8th, league average: 58.7%)
- 2025: 67.2% (1st, league average: 58.5%)
For added context, it should be noted that his offenses have had a lower than average depth of throw in those close game spots in each of those seasons. In fact, if you isolate 2025, only the Chiefs had a lower depth of target throw in those tight game spots than the Cardinals.
He used a physical running approach (second most yards per carry after contact by running backs during his three years in town) to complement that quick-hitting attack, a strategy that had moments of success, but health was hard to come by, and that made consistency near impossible.
Dynasty Rankings for Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta
Before I get into what tiers Detroit’s playmakers fall into, let’s take a look at how the Petzing model fits those who will be asked to execute.
Jared Goff is the only player to throw for 4,000 yards in each of the past four seasons, and he hasn’t been getting there because of his deep shots or mobility.
Kyler Murray was Arizona’s desired starter, and his game is obviously nothing like that of Goff, but Jacoby Brissett (last eight starts: 2,248 passing yards and 86 rushing yards) gave us a glimpse into how efficient this aerial attack can be in the right circumstances.
Michael Wilson secures his 2nd TD of the day
LARvsAZ on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/fWtoUcUR4b— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
I mentioned the shortening of throws under Petzing, and that is where the data points that presented themselves in 2025 become interesting.
- Sam LaPorta’s aDOT fell by 26.9% in 2025
- Jameson Williams’ aDOT jumped by 9.5% in 2025
LaPorta (herniated disc) had back surgery, and while his rehab process could be slow, the hope is that he’s back for camp ahead of his age-25 season. It wasn’t that long ago that he caught 10 TD passes as a rookie, and while his production has been stunted since, this is a player who has shown the ability to earn targets and has averaged over 12 yards per catch in consecutive seasons.
Williams, a 2022 first-rounder, is one of five players with 1,000 receiving yards and seven receiving TDs in each of the past two seasons (St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Courtland Sutton, and A.J. Brown are the others). The annual counting numbers have been there, and given his pedigree, that should be expected to sustain.
Having said that, the upward-trending aDOT opens up the door for a wide range of weekly outcomes, thus making the season-long numbers a little more appealing than the actual process of rostering a player like this.
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His value will obviously be tied to whether he can (or is asked to) expand his route tree and/or his efficiency. Should he continue to move toward a glorified specialist, big weeks are to be expected, but you open yourself up to 2025 Xavier Worthy levels of disappointment when it comes to a floor outcome.
Goff (turns 32 in October) remains easily outside of the top 12 in dynasty leagues but could produce in 2026 for win-now teams that want to acquire him on the cheap.
Gibbs and St. Brown are coach-proof, locked-in elite options at their respective positions. You could argue that 200 catches in 2026 for that tandem is within the range of possible outcomes should Petzing bring with him that same shallow passing attack, and once the ball is in the hands of these two, anything is possible.
Williams is certainly trending closer to a WR3 than a WR1 for our purposes. He’s entering his age-25 season, so anything is possible, but his counting numbers outpace his development at this point, and that has me listening to offers if I have Detroit’s dynamo.
LaPorta is an interesting option. Many dynasty fantasy managers don’t like spending on tight ends, and even fewer like doing it for one who is coming off a serious injury.
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That said, 20 touchdowns and 11.3 yards per catch through 42 career games is an impressive resume, and his current asking price is as cheap as it’s been since he first stepped onto a field.
For me, he’s easily a top-10 tight end in all dynasty formats, and I don’t think it’s crazy to think that he could work into the top five over the next 12 months. If there’s a Lion I’m most interested in buying at cost, it’s LaPorta.
