New Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf has never been held under 900 yards in a season, has scored at least seven times in four of six years in the NFL, and averages 14.4 yards per catch over a 97-game sample.
The athletic profile is overwhelming, and it’s possible that the quarterback play supporting him in 2025 is as good, if not better, than what he’s seen for the majority of his career.
That said, there’s risk involved with any move and any aging signal-caller. Is Metcalf worth adding to your team as a low-end WR2 this summer, or should you be looking elsewhere at an awfully deep position?
DK Metcalf’s Fantasy Outlook
Metcalf is coming off the board in the fourth round more often than not, around names like DJ Moore and Courtland Sutton, in that WR22-28 range, depending on how the board breaks. That’s right on par with his average finish rate at the position across his NFL career up to this point (average points per game ranking: WR25) and very well might prove to be right again.
- 2019: WR41 (11.7 PPR PPG)
- 2020: WR10 (17.0 PPR PPG)
- 2021: WR23 (14.4 PPR PPG)
- 2022: WR25 (13.3 PPR PPG)
- 2023: WR22 (14.1 PPR PPG)
- 2024: WR30 (12.8 PPR PPG)
That said, is it not at least interesting that the Steelers made him the fourth-highest annual earning receiver upon acquiring him?
He’s topped out at 8.3 targets per game for his career (average: 7.5), a number that seems on the low-end of expectations given the limited competition in this receiver room (all due respect to Roman Wilson truthers or those still holding Calvin Austin III stock) and the fact that Aaron Rodgers is not shy about funneling looks to talent he trusts (a 32-year-old Davante Adams averaged 10.4 targets per game in 2024 with the Jets)
A new deal for DK Metcalf: Steelers are signing their new wide receiver to a five-year, $150 million contract, per sources. pic.twitter.com/NIP1NIXQcn
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 9, 2025
I want to be in on Metcalf, and I probably will be if his price continues to hover in this range as we approach peak draft season, but I simply can’t bring myself to label him as a true target.
The Rodgers risk factor is too much for me to overlook to consider Metcalf over players with maybe less upside, but far higher floors like Mike Evans and Moore. Heck, it’s why I like the price tag on Khalil Shakir some 3-4 rounds later.
Metcalf has 17 career games with at least 20 PPR points. These are those explosive games that come to mind when you think about this physically imposing athlete making plays that only a handful of receivers on this planet can.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
That’s great. If you draft him, you’re banking on a few of those games, carrying you through your matchup that week and offsetting any of the poor performances that feel almost inevitable while he adjusts to new surroundings.
But is that safe? Can you truly count on those game-breaking efforts this season?
In those 17 games, 40.8% of his scoring has been down via the deep pass, and that just so happens to be the area where Father Time is taking a pound of flesh when it comes to Rodgers.
At cost, I don’t think Metcalf is a bad buy. I’d just tread lightly in assuming that he’s an auto-click in the late fourth round. There are plenty of ways for this to go sideways, and the receiver position is loaded with opportunity cost in the first half of the draft.
Dan Fornek’s DK Metcalf Fantasy Projection
DK Metcalf has not become what we hoped for in fantasy. Metcalf looked destined for greatness after his second season (83 receptions for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns) when he finished as the WR10 in fantasy points per game (17.0). Since then, he has failed to score more than 14.5 points per game each season.
From 2021 to 2023, he was a low-end WR2 that you could count on in your lineup. However, he failed to hit that standard in 2024 on a Seattle offense that struggled to do well. Metcalf had his fewest targets (108), receptions (66), touchdowns (5), and fantasy points per game (12.8) since his rookie season in 2024. The result was a middling WR30 finish in fantasy.
Metcalf’s limited route-running ability has meant that the receiver has not evolved beyond a deep target. He led all wide receivers in 2024 in deep targets (33) and was top 15 in air yards (1,475), average depth of target (13.7) and unrealized air yards (746).
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Unfortunately, despite his size, Metcalf is one of the worst contested catch receivers in the league (19.2%, WR100).
There is hope for 2025 after Metcalf was traded to the Steelers, thanks to Pittsburgh trading George Pickens to Dallas. Metcalf will be the unquestioned WR1 with the Steelers after sharing a passing attack with players like Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba throughout his career.
Metcalf has a chance to post his best season (real or fantasy) in 2025 as a target hog receiver tied to Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh. He should be considered a WR2 based on volume alone as long as he can stay on the field.
