New Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf has never been held under 900 yards in a season, has scored at least seven times in four of six years in the NFL, and averages 14.4 yards per catch over a 97-game sample.
The athletic profile is overwhelming, and it’s possible that the quarterback play supporting him in 2025 is as good, if not better, than what he’s seen for the majority of his career.
That said, there’s risk involved with any move and any aging signal-caller. Is Metcalf worth adding to your team as a low-end WR2 this summer, or should you be looking elsewhere at an awfully deep position?
DK Metcalf’s Fantasy Outlook
Metcalf is coming off the board in the fourth round more often than not, around names like DJ Moore and Courtland Sutton, in that WR22-28 range, depending on how the board breaks. That’s right on par with his average finish rate at the position across his NFL career up to this point (average points per game ranking: WR25) and very well might prove to be right again.
- 2019: WR41 (11.7 PPR PPG)
- 2020: WR10 (17.0 PPR PPG)
- 2021: WR23 (14.4 PPR PPG)
- 2022: WR25 (13.3 PPR PPG)
- 2023: WR22 (14.1 PPR PPG)
- 2024: WR30 (12.8 PPR PPG)
That said, is it not at least interesting that the Steelers made him the fourth-highest annual earning receiver upon acquiring him?
He’s topped out at 8.3 targets per game for his career (average: 7.5), a number that seems on the low-end of expectations given the limited competition in this receiver room (all due respect to Roman Wilson truthers or those still holding Calvin Austin III stock) and the fact that Aaron Rodgers is not shy about funneling looks to talent he trusts (a 32-year-old Davante Adams averaged 10.4 targets per game in 2024 with the Jets)
A new deal for DK Metcalf: Steelers are signing their new wide receiver to a five-year, $150 million contract, per sources. pic.twitter.com/NIP1NIXQcn
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 9, 2025
I want to be in on Metcalf, and I probably will be if his price continues to hover in this range as we approach peak draft season, but I simply can’t bring myself to label him as a true target.
The Rodgers risk factor is too much for me to overlook to consider Metcalf over players with maybe less upside, but far higher floors like Mike Evans and Moore. Heck, it’s why I like the price tag on Khalil Shakir some 3-4 rounds later.
Metcalf has 17 career games with at least 20 PPR points. These are those explosive games that come to mind when you think about this physically imposing athlete making plays that only a handful of receivers on this planet can.
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That’s great. If you draft him, you’re banking on a few of those games, carrying you through your matchup that week and offsetting any of the poor performances that feel almost inevitable while he adjusts to new surroundings.
But is that safe? Can you truly count on those game-breaking efforts this season?
In those 17 games, 40.8% of his scoring has been down via the deep pass, and that just so happens to be the area where Father Time is taking a pound of flesh when it comes to Rodgers.
At cost, I don’t think Metcalf is a bad buy. I’d just tread lightly in assuming that he’s an auto-click in the late fourth round. There are plenty of ways for this to go sideways, and the receiver position is loaded with opportunity cost in the first half of the draft.
Mason LeBeau’s DK Metcalf Fantasy Projection
Typically, I’d be out on Metcalf, especially after targeting him aggressively last year. He doesn’t have very promising underlying stats, and the move to the Steelers with Aaron Rodgers seems nebulous at best. However, his ADP hasn’t shot up like I thought it might. There appears to be plenty of caution from everyone, but he’s in that Rashee Rice, Zay Flower, and DeVonta Smith range of risky upside receivers.Â
For starters, Metcalf’s build and hype would allude to an elite ceiling, and while he’s had a few very good seasons, he has yet to truly break into that elite category and struggles to stay consistent. His style seems to mesh with what Rodgers likes in a receiver. The pairing can work well enough, but it might be ugly for stretches.Â
Lastly, Arthur Smith hasn’t led a WR1 to fantasy success since AJ Brown in 2021. A young Drake London struggled in Atlanta, and George Pickens imploded last year. That can be a symptom of the quarterback play as well, but Smith loves to spread out the ball, and Rodgers isn’t the elite version of himself that would make me less wary.Â
That being said, his floor of ~900 yards and five touchdowns isn’t that bad. This offense needs production somewhere, and there aren’t many other options for the passing game. I struggle to see huge upside here, but he might be a reliable WR2 you can play based on matchups. Considering his draft range, that’s not a bad get.Â
