DJ Moore’s fantasy football stock in Buffalo is one that has had me losing sleep at night this summer. I wasn’t overly impressed with him last season in Chicago, but how much of that was the result of comparing him against the promising young talent that the Bears have?
At the end of the day, this is a veteran player who was once allergic to the end zone and is now making 6 to 8 trips to paydirt annually. He’s joining an elite offense, but one that has largely functioned at a high level without the need for an alpha WR1.
So, how do we treat Moore as he enters his ninth professional season?
Should You Draft DJ Moore in Fantasy Football?
Moore checks in with an ADP of 53.4 in PFN’s Free Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator, and he is our consensus WR30 in our ranks, which come from me and my colleague Kyle Soppe. We have him projected at 12.1 fantasy points per game.
Moore is a very polarizing figure in the fantasy football world this season. On the one hand, it’s easy to understand the upside case. Moore goes from a crowded wide receiver room in Chicago to a barren wide receiver room in Buffalo with Josh Allen. That’s the entire bull case about Moore. I’m going to give you the bear case, and you’re going to see pretty quickly where I stand.
Moore is entering his age-29 season. He’s a talented receiver. He’s had a great career, with 5 seasons of 85-plus catches. There’s a lot to like about what Moore has done. But what we care about this year is what Moore will do.
I’ve got to give you some data. 19.2% target share, lowest of his career. 22.8% targets per route run rate, lowest of his career. 1.42 yards per route run, lowest of his career. 6.2 yards per target, lowest of his career. The narrative is that he was frustrated and gave up at times. He’s 29 years old. He’s coming from the Bears to a new team with a better quarterback and a better offense. What does this sound like?
That’s not Moore. All those metrics I just gave you are Allen Robinson from 2021. Then in 2022, we had all the training camp hype. He’s now playing with Matthew Stafford. He looks great. He’s making all these amazing catches. What happened? He was just done. It was over. He was one of the worst picks you can make in fantasy that season, and he was steamed up into the third or fourth round.
I can give you those same metrics for Moore, and it is the exact same thing. The numbers aren’t identical, but we’re talking about the same career lows in a lot of different metrics. 10 fantasy points per game, worst since his rookie year. 16% target share, lowest since his rookie year. 15.7% targets per route run rate, the worst of his career. 1.26 yards per route run, the worst of his career.
All the data that we have suggests Moore is a declining player, and we’ve seen the Bills trade for a receiver before, and it didn’t work out. Remember Amari Cooper? I don’t think Moore is as cooked as Cooper was. But I think it’s closer to Cooper than it was to Stefon Diggs. I hate those comparisons, because Diggs was 26 years old and firmly in his prime when he came to Buffalo. He is a true alpha in the way that Moore has not been.
For me, Moore is a full fade. I want no part of him in fantasy football.
FANTASY RANKINGS: PFN’s FREE Fantasy PPR, Half-PPR, and Non-PPR Rankings
DJ Moore’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis provided by PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe.
I was less optimistic on Moore than the field coming into the season, so it should be no surprise that I’m actively looking for reasons to not play him against arguably the best single unit in the sport.
Part of the rationale behind the Moore fade was the fact that he’s coming off of the least efficient season of his career and is joining an offense that, while explosive, has never really needed a standout receiver.
There will be weeks where volume tilts in his favor and he works his way into WR3 value, but I’m not sold on the quantity or quality (HOU: 3rd-fewest red-zone trips allowed last season) to open 2026. Just because I’ll have nothing invested in Moore this week doesn’t mean I won’t be tracking.
Last season, with offensive mastermind Ben Johnson pulling the strings, the veteran receiver saw his deep target rate spike from 18.6% to 38.8%. If that sticks, especially in a spot like that, I’ll bend the knee in certain spots and rank him as a startable asset.
If not, the fade looks great. Khalil Shakir wins short (though he did get a deep target to kick off the preseason, and that was interesting), James Cook is a real threat in that area, and Dalton Kincaid is too. Moore’s route tree needs to look different from his teammates to return value on where he was drafted, and I’m … skeptical.
We will see. I’m certainly watching how this situation plays out, but I’ll be doing it from a distance with Moore in the WR40 range until he punishes me for that lack of confidence.
START PREPARING: PFN’s FREE Fantasy Draft Simulator
Where Moore Ranks Among 2026 Wide Receivers
- Christian Watson | GB
- Jameson Williams | DET
- Rome Odunze | CHI
- Carnell Tate | TEN
- Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
- DJ Moore | BUF
- Davante Adams | LAR
- Josh Downs | IND
- Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
- DK Metcalf | PIT
- Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
More rankings can be found in PFN’s PPR Wide Receiver Rankings.
