Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith caught 16-of-17 postseason targets and scored in the Super Bowl thrashing of the Kansas City Chiefs. Could that be a sign of things to come? With a pair of 1,000-yard seasons on his NFL resume and a career-high eight scores last season, Smith’s outlook is trending in the right direction, but the conservative nature of the Eagles’ offense comes with natural limitations.
Is the pride of Alabama worthy of drafting as a weekly fantasy football starter this season?
DeVonta Smith’s Fantasy Outlook
Not all growth is linear.
Smith entered the league as an undersized wideout who averaged 16.9 yards per catch during his collegiate career. The 2020 Heisman Trophy winner was a great college player, but his slight build had him projected as a DeSean Jackson 2.0: a really good receiver, but one with a specific set of skills that doesn’t play as well in today’s game as it did 15 years ago.
Through one season, that comparison seemed apt.
- Smith’s rookie season: 64 catches for 916 yards (14.3 yards per catch)
- Jackson’s rookie season: 62 catches for 912 yards (14.7 yards per catch)
Jackson hit the peak of his powers in his final season during his first stint with the Eagles (2013: 82-1,332-9), and Smith may approach those marks this season as he continues to develop.
Smith: Fantasy Points (PPR) Per Target
- 2021: 1.80
- 2022: 1.89
- 2023: 2.05
- 2024: 2.24
The trajectory is optimistic, and the further you dig into his statistical profile, the better things look. After averaging 3.8 catches with a 15.2-yard aDOT in his first professional season, Smith has hauled in 5.3 passes with a 10.8-yard aDOT since. The speed isn’t going anywhere for the 26-year-old, so the fact that he’s blending in high-floor traits with single-play potential is precisely what we want.
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In 2024, with Saquon Barkley driving this offense, Smith was put into the slot for 47.5% of his routes, nearly double his rate from 2023. This puts him in a position to offer an elevated floor, which is the only thing standing between him and a WR2 ranking.
OH MY DEVONTA. ON 3RD AND 22. UNBELIEVABLE CATCH.
📺: #JAXvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/N2wD3Nlfxf— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
He’s a little outside of that for me, but that’s more the product of a lower volume passing game than the potential of what Smith can do with his looks. This is the exact profile I want from my WR3/Flex in all formats, as I’m comfortable that the good outweighs the bad at the end of the four-month season.
Smith ranks in the same tier as fantasy WR3s who are WR2s on their respective offenses. Jaylen Waddle, Chris Godwin, and Jauan Jennings are different receivers, but they all carry a similar month-over-month profile that I’m more than OK with should any of them fall below ADP on draft day.
Dan Fornek’s DeVonta Smith Fantasy Projection
DeVonta Smith has become one of the most reliable real-life WR2s in fantasy. Over the last three seasons, Smith has averaged 112.3 targets, 81.3 receptions, 1,031.7 yards, and 7.3 touchdowns per season. He was on pace to set career-highs in all those marks in 2024 before a concussion and hamstring strain cost him three games. He also rested in Week 18 with the rest of the starters.
Still, Smith had his use in fantasy football. He had a career-high 15.3 PPR points per game and his career’s second-best finish (WR15). He had three top 10 wide receiver weeks in 2024, including two top five finishes during the fantasy playoffs. It was also his third straight season with 14.0+ PPR points per game.
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The entire Eagles’ passing attack was less productive than usual thanks to a strong defense and the best rushing attack in the NFL. There is a chance the defense regresses with two of their better pass rushers playing elsewhere in 2025.
That could lead to more passing volume, which would benefit Smith greatly. Additionally, an injury to A.J. Brown would push Smith into the weekly WR1 range due to volume.
Smith is a reliable WR2 who is stuck next to one of the NFL’s most efficient receivers in a low-volume passing attack. Despite that, he has been an extremely reliable option for fantasy managers. He should be considered a solid WR2 with WR1 upside if the Eagles need to increase their passing volume or if Brown misses time due to an injury.