Should I Draft Derrick Henry? Fantasy Outlook for the Ravens RB in 2025

Running backs over 30 are seldom good bets in fantasy football. Can Ravens RB Derrick Henry defy the odds for a second consecutive year?

After an underwhelming final season with the Tennessee Titans, Derrick Henry signed with the Baltimore Ravens last year and registered the most efficient season of his career. Now 31 years old, the end is undoubtedly near. But is it here yet? Should fantasy football managers once again be willing to invest a second-round pick in the King?

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Derrick Henry Fantasy Outlook

The 2016 running back draft class gave us two elite guys and a handful of others who had moments of fantasy relevance. Henry is the only one still in the NFL.

We’ve known for years that Henry is not a normal human. He is built different. Therefore, his lasting longer and still being able to perform at a high level into his 30s shouldn’t be that surprising. With that said, Henry doesn’t have much time left. The question for fantasy managers is whether the last year of elite Henry was 2024.

Henry has a ton of mileage on him. His 2,355 career carries lead all active running backs. He’s led the league in carries for four of the past six seasons. The only two he didn’t get there came in 2021 when he broke his foot halfway through the season while leading the league in carries, and last year, when he came in second to Saquon Barkley’s historic season.

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Henry just carried the ball 325 times for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns at 30 years old. Showing the impact a quality offense can have, Henry averaged a career-best 5.9 yards per carry, up 1.7 from his final year in Tennessee. His 19.8 fantasy points per game and overall RB4 finish were both the second-highest marks of his career.

One of the “criticisms” of Henry over the years, if you want to even call it that, is how reliant he’s been on volume and touchdowns. In previous years (read: pre-2023), a younger, less-experienced me faded Henry because I overweighted receiving work as compared to touchdowns.

Over the past couple of years, I’ve adopted a new mantra in fantasy, which is one based on data and evidence: touchdowns are everything in fantasy football. In many instances, touchdowns are difficult to project. That is not the case with Henry.

Since taking over as the Titans’ lead back in 2018, Henry has scored double-digit touchdowns every season. The argument against Henry last was based on him scoring only 12 touchdowns in 2023. What happens if he does that again? My counterargument was that there was no way a healthy Henry doesn’t get to at least 15 touchdowns on the same team that Gus Edwards scored 13 times on the previous year. He scored 18 times last year.

Make no mistake about it, though, Henry is reliant on touchdowns. If he scores 12 times this year, he will be a bust relative to average draft position (ADP). A staggering 85% of Henry’s fantasy production came from rushing last season, the highest percentage in the league. To return value at his RB6 ADP, Henry will have to do it again…and I think he can.

The Ravens have basically the same offense they had last season. Things do change quickly in the NFL, but the Ravens have been a top offense every year of Lamar Jackson’s career. They will run the offense the same way, and John Harbaugh does not like using Jackson around the goal line. Henry had 20 carries from inside the five-yard line last season. Jackson had…wait for it…one. Henry is going to score in bunches once again. He is my RB7, and I would gladly draft him in the early-second round.

Frank Ammirante’s Derrick Henry Fantasy Projection

Derrick Henry lived up to expectations in his first year with the Ravens, rushing for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. This is an ideal situation for a running back — playing with an MVP quarterback whose elite rushing opens up running lanes, in a Todd Monken scheme that is firing on all cylinders.

With Monken remaining as the playcaller, there’s continuity on offense, which bodes well for continued production for Henry. Despite his advanced age, we’ve seen no signs of decline, so far.

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This is why it makes Henry such a smash pick in the early second round of drafts right now. The only way that he doesn’t provide profit at that ADP is if he gets injured. Of course, there’s always that risk, but that’s also the case with every other running back. With that in mind, I suggest making Henry a priority in your drafts.

Don’t be surprised to see Henry rush for 2,000 yards once again, especially while playing for one of the best teams in the NFL, which should have a lead quite often.

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