One of the most unique and dynamic players in NFL history, Washington Commanders wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. is a nightmare for defenses to deal with when he’s at his best. The problem is that he is frequently not at his best. Coming off the worst season of his career, could a change of scenery return Samuel to greatness? Or was this the beginning of the end of Samuel as a relevant fantasy football asset?
Deebo Samuel Sr. Fantasy Outlook
Every season, fantasy success is decided by a handful of players. There are a bunch of running backs and wide receivers who will perform well. The difference in the fantasy points per game among groups of players will be negligible.
The best teams in your fantasy leagues will be the ones that have the players who severely outperform their average draft position (ADP). Last year, at wide receiver, those guys were the likes of Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, to name a few.
On the flip side, fantasy teams can get torpedoed by the reverse. When you take a player with a premium pick who doesn’t come close to returning value. Last year, at wide receiver, those guys were Tyreek Hill, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, and, of course, Samuel, to name a few.
The thing with Samuel is that this is not the first time he’s been the type of player to swing fantasy leagues. In fact, he’s been on both sides of the coin multiple times.
After a terrible injury-riddled sophomore campaign in 2020, Samuel was a mid-round pick in 2021. He averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game and was the epitome of a league winner.
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The next year, Samuel was an early-round selection in fantasy drafts. He destroyed seasons, averaging 13.0 PPG, while battling injury throughout the year.
In 2023, Samuel’s ADP dropped a couple of rounds. He averaged 16.3 PPG, making himself a true difference-maker.
Then, last season, Samuel was a confident 2/3 turn selection. He averaged a career-worst 10.2 PPG, making him one of the worst picks you possibly could have made at any position in 2024 fantasy drafts.
Heading into the 2025 season, the fantasy community has given up on Samuel, and with good reason. Samuel was awful last season. He earned a 19.6% target share, struggled with drops, and saw his rushing production vanish. The latter was especially concerning, considering Christian McCaffrey played all of four games.
Samuel ran the ball 42 times for 136 yards and one touchdown. For a guy who has always relied on splash plays, Samuel had seven receptions of 25+ yards all season, and his longest rush was 13 yards. By comparison, in 2023, Samuel had six receptions of 40+ yards, including three for touchdowns. He also had five carries for 14+ yards.
The point is, Samuel was incredibly inefficient last season, just as he was every other year he struggled.
Fantasy managers have evidently decided that Samuel is done. On the one hand, all of last year’s data points to a declining player. Samuel looked slower, and the data supports it. Without his speed and dynamism, he’s nothing.
warming up to (falling for) Deebo Samuel this year even if he is almost washed
•upside = gamebreaking fantasy piece in a given week
•better offensive environment than last season’s 49ers
•RB room shaky…only added JCM
•Terry only other WR volume-hogpic.twitter.com/OrNqoR2YVP— kev mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) May 24, 2025
On the other hand, there were extenuating circumstances. Samuel dealt with pneumonia and returned after essentially sitting out one game (he played two snaps). It’s entirely possible he felt the lingering effects for the remainder of the season, which negatively impacted his play.
From Weeks 1-6, Samuel averaged 14.12 PPG. The pneumonia game was in Week 7. So, we throw that out and then assess the remainder of the season. From Week 8 to 17, he averaged 9.22 PPG. That certainly suggests the illness was to blame. But was it?
To start the season, Samuel was heavily targeted, earning 9 and 10 targets in Weeks 1 and 2. But in Weeks 4, 5, and 6 (he missed Week 3 with an injury), Samuel saw target counts of five, three, and five. The 14.12 PPG average is heavily boosted by his 76-yard touchdown reception in Week 6 against the Seahawks. He would’ve been at 11.2 PPG if you take out that play.
Obviously, that play counts, and it’s part of what makes Samuel great. However, the point here is that Samuel wasn’t actually meaningfully better before the pneumonia than after. And the after was really bad.
Samuel averaged just 10.8 yards per reception post-pneumonia. He didn’t score until Week 16. And the last time we saw him was in a 40-34 shootout loss to the Lions. The 49ers lit up the scoreboard. Yet, Samuel had a grand total of one reception for five yards.
History Suggests We Should Believe a Wide Receiver’s Decline When We See It
There are, of course, exceptions to every rule. But typically, when an older wide receiver shows obvious signs of decline and then his team responds by moving on from him, it’s because they don’t think he can play at a high level anymore.
The age at which it usually happens ranges from 28 to 33, where Samuel is now. We saw this happen in the past with guys like Andre Johnson. He showed obvious signs of decline in 2014. The Texans moved one, and Johnson was a disaster with the Colts in 2015.
We saw it happen more recently with Allen Robinson. After two stellar years with the Bears, Robinson had a horrible year in 2021 at age 28. The Bears moved on, and fantasy managers bought into a rebound in 2022 when he joined the Rams. As it turns out, Robinson was just done.
It happened again with Brandin Cooks two years ago. In his third year with the Texans, Cooks was noticeably worse. When he joined a much better offense in the Cowboys the next year at age 30, there was no return to greatness.
The argument in favor of Samuel would be something like 2015 Brandon Marshall. After being an elite WR for nearly a decade, Marshall’s age-30 season with the Bears in 2014 suggested he was declining. He joined the Jets in 2015 and had the best season of his career before completely falling off a cliff in 2016.
All of this is to say, Samuel is fighting an uphill battle. The 49ers’ offense suddenly has a ton of question marks with Brandon Aiyuk dealing with a torn ACL and McCaffrey’s uncertain health. Yet, they moved on from Samuel anyway.
Samuel does fit in nicely with the Commanders, though. He doesn’t have to be the main guy, as that job belongs to Terry McLaurin. The Commanders can use him as the joker-type player that he does best. But is the speed back? Will he be able to get open?
I do not like to buy into rebounds from older players. But Samuel’s ADP is WR38. If you think a rebound is possible, the price to find out is relatively low.
I have Samuel ranked as my WR51. As you might have imagined, I have no interest. I acknowledge the potential for him to smash his ADP, but he’s been a bad fantasy asset more than a good one, and I’m much more inclined to invest in younger players with their best years in front of them.
Mason LeBeau’s Deebo Samuel Fantasy Projection
While I also cringe when I see his name in the draft, quietly, Deebo Samuel has become one of my favorite “draft-and-trade” players. Every player should be evaluated differently, so just because their season-long projections are favorable, it doesn’t mean this can’t be a very beneficial player for you.
Samuel has not been a league-winning player outside of his incredible 2021 season, and while that likely won’t change, I’d still recommend drafting him. As things currently sit, Samuel is the only worthwhile weapon on the Commanders’ offense. Terry McLaurin took his holdout pretty close to the season, and I’d project a slow start for him, but once he’s cooking, he won’t overlap with Samuel at all.
Instead, Samuel should see an increased workload early and a more advantageous role later. His usage is incredibly encouraging for early returns. QB Jayden Daniels’ gravity and OC Kliff Kingsbury’s screen game should be potent enough for a few touchdowns. I believe we may see some of that ‘21 Deebo Samuel in the first half of the year, but once his value is at its highest, I’d trade him. Invest early, cash in, and get out.
