Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku enters his age-29 season with questions under center, but what else is new? Over the past two seasons, he is TE4 (minimum 20 games played) in per of PPR points per game and leads the position with 21 end zone targets.
The production profile looks solid, yet he’s not always being drafted as a top 10 tight end this summer and isn’t considered much of a threat to the first three tiers at the position.
Is that right?
David Njoku’s Fantasy Outlook
I’ll get to the talent and overall abilities of Njoku in a minute, but I’d guess you’re aware of what he is capable of. Instead, you’re skittish about drafting him with a fringe top-100 pick, if not later, because of the uncertainty at quarterback.
First of all, that’s fair. We are human beings and thus programmed to enjoy stability. We have the same thing for breakfast more often than not, we work out at the same general time regularly, and start/conclude our days at roughly the same time. We love consistency. At some level, we thrive on it. Even if you don’t mean to, you play to your comfort zone, and comfort typically comes from knowing the result of an action.
We don’t have that in Cleveland, and we aren’t going to.
Get comfortable being uncomfortable.
In 2024, Njoku was a TE1 in seven of 11 games. After recovering from the early-season injury, he had eight games in Weeks 6-18 with at least a handful of catches, a total topped by only Trey McBride. Those notes are impressive at face value, but when you add the context of the Browns’ passing game, they jump off the page.
2024 Cleveland Rankings
- Yards Per Completion: 29th
- Sack Rate: 30th
- Interception Rate: 30th
- Touchdown Rate: 31st
- Completion%: 31st
- Passer Rating: 32nd
And you’re still worried about Njoku’s ability to produce in light of a questionable situation?
David Njoku … DOG pic.twitter.com/D7HDLYDiyZ
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 30, 2024
I can’t say with certainty that this pass game, or offense as a whole, will be “good”, but I can say that there isn’t much room to move in the wrong direction. What encouraged me most about Njoku’s production last season was that his profile improved with time. That, as it became clear that this offense was limited and that the veteran tight end was the most consistent producer, defenses couldn’t do anything to slow him.
Njoku Production Splits
- Games 1-6: 22.6% on-field target%, 23.5% red zone target%, 5.2 aDOT
- Games 7-11: 27.1% on-field target%, 50% red zone target%, 5.9 aDOT
That tells me that Cleveland’s desire to get their top option the ball was more impactful than the opponent’s ability to remove him from the boxscore, and I don’t see any reason to think that changes in 2025, no matter who is taking snaps.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Here’s a look at the general tiers that have taken form per our FREE Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator:
- Tier 1: Brock Bowers and Trey McBride
- Tier 2: George Kittle
- Tier 3: Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson, and Travis Kelce
After those three tiers, we have a mix of veterans (Jonnu Smith and Mark Andrews) and rookies (Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland). I like those four players plenty, but Njoku projects favorably to all of them by a decent amount and profiles much more like that third tier at the worst. The situation is far from ideal, but the lack of true target competition is enough to have me interested at the right price on draft day.
Dan Fornek’s David Njoku Fantasy Projection
Injuries and an ineffective offense hurt David Njoku’s statistical output last season, but his ability to find the end zone salvaged his fantasy production.
Njoku was limited to just 11 games due to a high ankle sprain and a hamstring injury, but still had 97 targets, 64 receptions, 505 receiving yards, and five touchdowns, pushing him to a TE4 finish (13.5 PPG). It was Njoku’s third straight season with double-digit fantasy points and a top 10 positional finish.
The Browns’ offense will once again feature a bad quarterback room with Joe Flacco set to get a majority of the starts. That might be the best-case scenario for Njoku, who has shown the ability to make plays down the field (10.7 career yards per reception) if the passes are accurate.
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Cleveland also doesn’t have an established pass catcher outside of Jerry Jeudy, giving him the valuable fantasy role of “second target in the passing attack”.
Cleveland’s offense won’t be exciting next season, but even bad and boring offenses score fantasy points. Njoku might be the most reliable piece of Cleveland’s offense in fantasy football, especially if he can continue to dominate touches in the red zone.
However, he will need to compete for targets with Jeudy and red zone looks with Cedric Tillman to maintain his top-10 tight end production.
Njoku is one of the most dynamic tight ends in fantasy, averaging over 8.1 targets per game over the last two seasons. That kind of volume should be more than enough for him to finish as a top 10 tight end again in 2025.
