The Detroit Lions backfield has become one of fantasy football’s most intriguing puzzles heading into 2025. While Jahmyr Gibbs continues to grab headlines as the explosive playmaker, there’s a compelling case brewing for David Montgomery as the better value.
Users on PFSN’s Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator have been quietly targeting Montgomery nearly a full round ahead of tight end Sam LaPorta, a strategy that contradicts conventional wisdom but makes perfect sense when you dig into the numbers.
David Montgomery’s Workload Advantage in a Championship Offense
The numbers tell a clear story about Montgomery’s role in Detroit’s offense. Since joining the Lions, he’s maintained a steady diet of 14.4 carries and 16.3 touches per game. That consistency becomes even more valuable when you consider Detroit’s offensive environment.
The Lions led for a higher percentage of their snaps than any team in 2024, creating game scripts that naturally favor ground attacks.
This favorable script management translated into massive rushing volume. Detroit’s running backs combined for 478 rush attempts, marking the second-highest total any team has recorded since the NFL expanded to 17 games in 2021. Only the 2021 Titans exceeded that mark, and their backfield workhorses delivered fantasy gold that season.
Montgomery’s floor feels rock solid in this high-octane offense. While Jahmyr Gibbs captures attention with explosive plays, Montgomery handles the steady work that keeps fantasy lineups afloat during tough weeks. His role doesn’t depend on game-breaking speed or perfect game scripts.
Instead, he benefits from Detroit’s commitment to establishing the run and controlling games through ball possession.
Sam LaPorta’s Red Zone Regression Risk
Meanwhile, LaPorta faces questions about sustainability after his breakout rookie campaign and sophomore slump. His red zone efficiency stands out as a potential concern. During his two NFL seasons, LaPorta has scored on 37.5% of his red zone targets, significantly outpacing the 28.6% positional average over that same stretch.
Touchdown regression rarely announces itself in advance, but that gap suggests LaPorta’s scoring rate may normalize. Additionally, his on-field target share dropped five percentage points last season.
brb enjoying some Sam LaPorta highlights
pic.twitter.com/r8BvVu0SmL— Barstool Detroit (@BSMotorCity) July 18, 2024
If those targets don’t return and his red zone efficiency falls closer to positional norms, LaPorta’s value proposition changes dramatically.
These concerns don’t make LaPorta a poor player, but they highlight the risk of paying premium prices for peak production that may not repeat. Fantasy championships are often won by identifying players whose circumstances suggest improvement rather than chasing last year’s leaders heading toward regression.
Why Drafters Are Taking Montgomery Ahead of LaPorta
PFSN users have recognized this dynamic, consistently drafting Montgomery nearly a full round ahead of LaPorta. This approach makes sense when examining the underlying metrics and usage patterns.
Montgomery’s path to failure requires Detroit’s offense to fundamentally change its identity or for the veteran back to lose significant touches to Gibbs. Both scenarios seem less likely than LaPorta experiencing normal touchdown variance or continued target share erosion.
Detroit’s coaching changes add some uncertainty to their offensive cadence, but the foundation remains strong. New coordinators inherit a team built around controlling games through efficient offense and smart ball management.
Montgomery fits perfectly into that philosophy, offering the kind of reliable production that helps win fantasy leagues through consistent weekly contributions rather than boom-or-bust performances.
The market often overvalues excitement while underpricing reliability. Montgomery represents the latter, providing a steady foundation while others chase the volatility that can sink fantasy seasons when it inevitably turns cold.
