As David Montgomery enters his age-28 season, it seems fair to label him as something of a fantasy football unicorn. No, his skill set isn’t unique, and no, he doesn’t have physical tools that separate himself from the pack — and yet, he’s RB14 on a per-game basis over the past two seasons.
How is he doing it, and can we expect it to continue in Detroit with a new offense coming to town?
David Montgomery Fantasy Outlook
Generally speaking, rules are a good thing. They are put in place to maintain order in our society, and in the world of fantasy football drafting, they exist to help you optimize your roster.
I research these rules. I help create these rules. I’m a slave to these rules.
1) Draft mobile quarterbacks
2) Embrace versatility
3) Load up on projectable volume
4) Stream defenses
5) Roster an indoor kicker for the stretch run
By and large, I’ve had success in following that blueprint. It’s simple. It allows for some creativity. It’s beautiful.
It’s also the reason I haven’t had many shares of Montgomery during his Detroit tenure, and that has burned me on multiple occasions.
DAVID MONTGOMERY IS A BEAST.
📺: #SEAvsDET on ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/OiTpKUNzPB— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2024
If you want a peak behind the curtain, my running back draft cheat sheets have things like “rush rate against loaded boxes” (who wants to run into more supersized human beings than needed?), targets per game (the industry standard scoring system is PPR these days, so why wouldn’t you want access to those easy points?), and percentage of team carries (this is a game of number padding over efficiency),
Here’s a look at how Montgomery grades out among the top 20 scoring per-game PPR running backs (minimum 20 games played) over the past two seasons.
- 19th in targets
- 18th in rush rate against loaded boxes (third highest)
- 17th in percentage of team rush attempts
If you put numbers to those rankings, his outlier nature stands out even more. Here are the numbers/rates for those stats, comparing Montgomery to the other 19 measured running backs.
Montgomery
- 2.2 targets per game
- 42.6% of rushes against loaded boxes
- 40.6% of team rush attempts
Rest of the Top-20
- 3.7 targets per game
- 34.4 % of rushes against loaded boxes
- 50% of team rush attempts
Every time I run a study, his profile looks like an easy fade, and that’s been an awful strategy of late. In 2024 alone, he was a top-20 producer at the position in 11 of 14 games. He’s made the most of his looks (83.9% catch rate during his time in Detroit) and has benefited from an elite offense putting him in a position to rack up the touchdowns (only Derrick Henry has more rushing TDs over the past two seasons).
Why should we expect any of those things to change?
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Jahmyr Gibbs is in the 1.01 conversation, and even that shouldn’t scare you off of Monty at this point. Yes, he’s an outlier, but he’s a consistent outlier, and those types can’t be blindly crossed off. I trust the overall process that has resulted in limited shares over the past few seasons, but I also trust that we are looking at a true rule breaker.
The devil on my shoulder is telling me not to chase the past production and to fear the coordinator change. This 28-year-old has over 1,500 regular season touches on his NFL resume. He’s still very productive (he gained yardage on 85.4% of his carries compared to Gibbs’ 84.4% rate), but the home run hitting role isn’t his (9.2% of his carries last season picked up 10+ yards while Gibbs excelled with 16.4%).
There are some red flags in this profile, but they simply haven’t mattered up to this point, and I’m sick of being wrong.
Montgomery makes the most of the opportunities he’s given. His fantasy production relative to expectation has improved in each of the past three seasons (+14.7% in 2024) and as long as that’s the case, he’s a good bet for his 13-16 touch role that lands him in starting lineups far more often than not in this high octane Lions offense (our fifth ranked offensive line).
I’m not going to reach for Detroit’s RB2, but I’ve grown as an analyst. I’ve grown as a person. Not every player fits nicely into my Excel boxes, and Montgomery is one of those running backs. I’ll be drafting him in line with ADP despite my numbers suggesting that it’s a dangerous move.
Dan Fornek’s David Montgomery Fantasy Projection
David Montgomery was on pace to have a career season in both real life and fantasy in 2024. Despite being limited to just 14 games with a knee injury, Montgomery still posted 185 carries for 775 yards and 12 touchdowns while adding 36 receptions for 341 yards.
He ultimately finished as the RB16 in PPR points per game (15.8), but he was the RB11 before getting injured (16.5 PPG) despite splitting the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs.
In two seasons with Detroit, Montgomery has averaged 202 carries, 895 rushing yards, and 12.5 touchdowns per season and 15.3 fantasy points per game. However, there are questions about what his role will look like in 2025.
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Detroit lost two interior offensive linemen this offseason (center Frank Ragnow and right guard Kevin Zeitler), and are hoping that a rookie (Tate Ratledge) and a 2024 late-round selection (Christian Mahogany) can replace them on the line.
Additionally, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has accepted a head coaching job with the Chicago Bears, which raises questions about the backfield split between Montgomery and Gibbs.
Still, Montgomery will have a role in Detroit in 2025. He’s functioned as a low-end RB1 or a high-end RB2 since joining the team in 2023. That ceiling may not be possible if Gibbs takes on a larger role in the offense after his stellar 2025.
However, Montgomery should still receive plenty of volume (especially in the red zone) to be a solid RB2 with weekly RB1 upside, depending on the game script.
