The Miami Dolphins wasted no time in addressing their offense following the blockbuster trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers that saw Jonnu Smith move on after a massive 2024 campaign, sending a 2026 sixth-round pick to the New York Giants on July 1 for Darren Waller and a 2027 seventh-round pick.
Waller has seen action in eight NFL seasons, but you likely remember a two-year window where he racked up 197 catches and 2,341 yards. After what Smith did in this offense a year ago, should Waller be a late-round target?
Darren Waller’s Fantasy Outlook
On the surface, Waller and Smith are similar players, making replacing one for the other logical. Both have strong athletic traits and were slow to post usable numbers for fantasy managers, but they hit significantly when they hit.
Smith was impressive last season. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Sam LaPorta, 12 months ago, were labeled as tight ends with a path to be the top scorer at the position for the 2024 season. Smith averaged more PPR points per game than all of them on his way to a TE5 finish.
More on my mind than his raw production is how he got there, and if Waller can replicate it. Smith managed to thread the needle perfectly regarding his surrounding environment, and that’s hard to bank on repeating.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were both healthy enough to attract attention but unproductive enough to leave a window open for Smith to produce. Tua Tagovailoa missed time with an injury, but Smith caught 72.4% of his targets and scored on three of 21 receptions from Tyler Huntley (all other Dolphins: 68.4% catch rate with zero scores on 65 grabs).
The regression case would have written itself for Smith had he stayed in town (he scored on 38.9% of his red-zone targets in 2024, a rate that sticks out when you compare it against his teammates’ mark of 18.8%) and now that we are talking about a tight end with more experience in the rap game recently than the route game, color me skeptical.
Former NFL star Darren Waller released a new song ‘Top Play’ and it is going viral
pic.twitter.com/4aXctkKDH0— Daily Loud (@DailyLoud) June 14, 2025
Touchdowns drive the story regarding the TE position, and that’s the foundation of the Waller fade. I’m not prepared to carry over Smith’s outlier of a TD rate for this season, and expecting chunk plays in this offense that has two receivers plenty capable of accounting for those gains isn’t wise (even in a breakout, Smith ranked fourth at the position in catches and 27th in number of catches that gained 25+ yards).
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That said, dismissing Waller altogether is something sharp managers aren’t doing. Yes, he’ll turn 33 in September, but let’s not forget that he has fewer NFL targets than David Njoku and T.J. Hockenson, two tight ends that the fantasy community isn’t writing off due to age concerns.
Father Time will likely take his pound of flesh, and maybe this Dolphins offense will be a complete mess in 2025, but rest assured, I’ll be tracking Waller’s usage patterns with a close eye.
The ‘Phins have home games against the Bengals and Buccaneers to close out the fantasy playoffs, and if I can get cheap exposure to that championship schedule, I’m going to be aggressive in doing so, provided he gives me a reason to think he’ll be on the field.
