D’Andre Swift has shown glimpses of fantasy football greatness, and he finally made it through an entire season without missing time last year.
Does that mean his best is yet to come? Here’s a breakdown of his profile as he enters his age-26 season, his second in the Windy City and coming off of a career-high 295 touches.
D’Andre Swift Fantasy Outlook
Simply put, nothing is exciting about Swift. You don’t have to be exciting to be productive, but in the range in which he is being drafted, some semblance of upside would be nice to see.
Percentage of Carries Gaining 10+ Yards
- 2021 (Lions): 13.9%
- 2022 (Lions): 13.1%
- 2023 (Eagles): 9.6%
- 2024 (Bears): 7.1%
Swift averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry in 2024 and didn’t have a 20-yard carry over his final seven games. He’s seen his rush TD rate crater from once every 20.8 carries in his three seasons with the Lions to once every 46.9 totes since.
The profile isn’t pretty. Heck, it’s not appealing in the least. Swift has posted a negative EPA per carry in three of five seasons and averaged just 0.73 PPR points per touch a year ago, the worst mark of his career.
And yet, he’s tough to completely fade — he’s a true test of the value of volume.
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You’re not rostering him under the pretense that he’s a league winner. You’re going this direction because he had as many games last season with 14+ carries and 4+ catches as Bijan Robinson. You’re clicking his name because only Derrick Henry (81.9%) and Kyren Williams (79.6%) accounted for a higher percentage of their team’s rush attempts in 2024 than Swift (77.8%).
Simply functioning as a weekly bellcow was enough for Swift to hold up his end of the bargain if you started him consistently. Despite all of the negative metrics mentioned above, he was a top-20 running back on nine occasions — you’re not losing ground with him in your lineup, and there’s value in that.
SWIFT TO THE HOUSE!
đŸ“º: #CHIvsWAS on CBS/Paramount+
đŸ“±: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/4mcKeNEIY2— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
Yes, the rookie running backs who should walk into a featured role offer more potential, and maybe that is what your specific roster needs. Personally, I’m willing to sacrifice ceiling in the middle third of the draft, understanding that I can access players with a wide range of outcomes in the later stages. If I can lock in a starting unit that I feel good about weekly, that frees me up to swing big as the draft winds down.
So no, Swift probably won’t directly be the reason you win. But could he provide you with the freedom to gamble late that does land you a true difference maker?
Like you, I’m not entering any draft room with the intention to draft him or to overextend. That said, if I’m being asked to pay market price for him and believe one of my top two backs carries with risk, I’ll pull the trigger and find comfort in knowing what I’m getting.
Frank Ammirante’s D’Andre Swift Fantasy Projection
D’Andre Swift is in a good spot to improve on last year’s numbers because the Bears have significantly upgraded their team context. HC Ben Johnson is now calling plays, the offensive line has been improved, and two high-end pass-catching prospects were brought in: Colston Loveland and Luther Burden.
However, we already saw the Lions move on from Swift when Johnson was the offensive coordinator, so there’s always a risk that this turns into a committee with Roschon Johnson and/or Kyle Monangai.Â
Swift hasn’t been that exciting in the last two years, putting up 959 yards on 3.8 yards per carry while adding 42 catches for 386 yards. There’s not much big-play ability here.
Because of this, we’re getting projectable volume on an ascending offense. If you waited on RB with a WR-heavy approach in the early rounds, Swift makes sense as an RB2 because you need someone with standalone value. Still, make sure to temper your expectations because the ceiling isn’t that high here.
