Not all heroes wear capes, and not all fantasy football selections are league winners. If you pass on the top few tiers at the tight end position this summer, a perfectly reasonable strategy, you’ll get to the point in the late rounds where you’re searching for any baseline floor you can find.
Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz’s point total for the season, or any week for that matter, isn’t likely the direct reason you have success this season. Still, the flexibility he provides you early on could prove to be valuable, and that’s why I have some interest in him in punt builds.
Dalton Schultz’s Fantasy Outlook
- Travis Kelce
- Schultz
Those are the two tight ends in the entire NFL who have hauled in at least 50 passes in each of the past five seasons. Yeah, yeah, 50 grabs might not be the most eye-popping of numbers, but they speak to an annual floor that exists with Schultz, a player forgotten at this point by most.
Next, the out from Dalton Schultz with Davis in quarters pic.twitter.com/1BXunRr1Lk
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) November 9, 2023
If we know a stable skill set exists, why not chase a strong situation? Nico Collins is a bona fide star, but outside of him, Houston is working with rookies and unproven players. We believe C.J. Stroud is a long-term asset at the quarterback position, and none of us fear this division, so why can’t this offense take a massive step forward in 2025 and serve as a tide that raises all featured boats?
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Did you know that, in terms of points scored, the 2024 Texans were closer to the Carolina Panthers than the top 10?
That’s embarrassing. That’s also something that I’m willing to bet against repeating. As underwhelming as Schultz was a season ago, another three points per game, and he’s TE12. Is that too much to ask?
Only six tight ends in 2024 posted more five-plus-target games than Schultz (Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Jonnu Smith, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz), a level of involvement that I think we can expect to be present this year.
Players like Isaiah Likely and Kyle Pitts might have more physical tools. Still, in this portion of fantasy drafts, if I’m drafting a player I plan on starting (you shouldn’t be drafting two tight ends in standard formats, so a selection of Schultz is a vote of confidence in him opening the season in your starting lineup), it’s “floor over more” for me. I want someone who will give me in the range of what I expect regularly, instead of a player with more volatility.
At its core, it’s a simple strategy. Players get less productive as the draft wears on; that’s how this works. If I can limit the variance when it comes to my lesser pieces, I give my expensive players a chance to decide my outcome (both weekly and annual).
Dan Fornek’s Dalton Schultz Fantasy Projection
Dalton Schultz is a model of consistency at the tight end position. Over the last three seasons (two with the Texans), he has averaged 87.3 targets, 56.3 receptions, 581.3 receiving yards, and 4.0 touchdowns. Schultz has four straight seasons with at least 10.0 yards per reception and 6.3 yards per target.
It is concerning that Schultz didn’t produce more in Houston in 2024, given the team’s injury situation at wide receiver. The veteran tight end had three years from 2021 to 2023, where he finished as a top-12 tight end, averaging at least 9.5 points per season.
In 2024, that dropped to 7.0 (TE27). His final stat line (53 receptions for 532 yards and two touchdowns) was his lowest mark since he became a full-time starter in 2020.
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It won’t be any easier for Schultz to come across targets in 2025. Houston replaced their injured receivers (Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell) with a mixture of veterans (Christian Kirk) and rookies (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel).
At the very least, this infusion of talent will once again ensure that Schultz will be a safety valve instead of a primary option in the passing attack.
Schultz will run routes and earn targets on offense, but most of his damage was done between the 20-yard lines in 2024. He should be considered a low-end TE2 in fantasy unless that dramatically changes.
