Not every tight end can be Sam LaPorta or Brock Bowers. Historically, it takes them a couple of years to emerge. That’s what fantasy football managers who draft Dalton Kincaid hope happens this season. After two years of underwhelming performance, is this the year the Buffalo Bills’ tight end finally becomes a TE1?
Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Outlook
As a rookie in 2023, Kincaid started slowly, which is normal for tight ends. Then, in Week 7, it looked like he was starting to figure things out. From Weeks 7-11, Kincaid averaged 15.16 fantasy points per game.
Most Receptions by a Bills Rookie (All Positions)
1. Dalton Kincaid (TE) — 73 receptions (2023)
2. Sammy Watkins (WR) — 65 receptions (2014)
3. Glenn Bass (WR) — 50 receptions (1961)
4. Jerry Butler (WR) — 48 receptions (1979)
5. Lee Evans (WR) — 48 receptions (2004) pic.twitter.com/mIV7H3Kah8
— BillsMuse (@BillsMusee) May 26, 2025
Given that Kincaid was the Bills’ first-round pick, despite them already rostering Dawson Knox, the prevailing belief at the time was that this was the start of Kincaid overtaking Knox as the TE1. Surely, Kincaid was poised to push Knox aside and render him irrelevant.
Unfortunately, that was not the case. When Knox returned from injury, things returned to how they were before he got hurt. On the season, Kincaid averaged 14.2 PPG in five games without Knox against 7.4 PPG in 11 games with him. From Weeks 12-17, Kincaid never scored more than 12.7 fantasy points and only hit double-digits once. Knox remained a problem.
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Nevertheless, fantasy managers were quite bullish on Kincaid entering his sophomore season. Surely, with a full year under his belt, he was ready to take off and post TE1 numbers. Once again, this was not the case.
Kincaid took a step backward in 2024, averaging a mere 7.8 PPG. His target share increased to 20.2%, and he was targeted on 29.4% of his route runs. Those rates were inside the top eight, but Kincaid could not break free of Knox. Kincaid’s snap share was a mere 57.5%, which ranked 32nd amongst tight ends.
In all 13 games Kincaid played, Knox did as well. His numbers were virtually identical to his rookie year, averaging just 0.4 ppg more than he did in games where Knox played in 2023.
Is This the Year Kincaid Takes Off?
It’s common for tight ends to break out in their third season. However, Knox still exists, and it’s clear the Bills like him and have use for him. That makes it challenging to project Kincaid for a breakout.
I fully expect Kincaid to do better than he did last year. But unless he can reach at least 11-12 PPG, he will be no better than a streamer. Generally, fantasy managers can scrounge together 10 PPG from a rotation of tight ends. We’ve seen nothing to suggest Kincaid will provide a meaningful advantage.
Last season, Khalil Shakir led the team with 100 targets. Dalton Kincaid was second with 75, but he only played 13 games. After those two, Allen spread the ball around. Coleman, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, and Amari Cooper (in his eight games) combined for roughly 37% of the targets.
The only meaningful addition to the Bills’ pass-catchers has been Joshua Palmer. He should consolidate some of the targets that went to the ancillary receivers, but should not meaningfully impact Kincaid. Palmer, He, Shakir, and Kincaid should combine for at least 60% of Josh Allen’s targets.
However, as we saw last year, a 20% target share is not enough for Kincaid. Knox may not have any real chance at fantasy relevance, but his existence will likely prevent Kincaid from being more than a high-end TE2.
I have Kincaid ranked as my TE15. With a TE14 average draft position (ADP), I do not recommend anyone draft the Bills’ tight end this season.
Dan Fornek’s Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Projection
To say that Dalton Kincaid has failed to hit expectations since being drafted in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Buffalo Bills would be an understatement. Coming into the NFL, Kincaid was viewed as a weapon that could utilize his size and route running to create mismatches against defenders from the tight end position.
Instead, he has struggled to provide a consistent impact in real life and fantasy football.
Kincaid has struggled with injuries throughout his first two seasons, suffering a concussion, thumb, and shoulder injury (one game missed) as a rookie before missing three games with a knee injury in 2024.
However, even when healthy, he has struggled to pull through a timeshare with reliable veteran Dawson Knox in Buffalo.
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In two seasons, Kincaid has yet to surpass a 66% season-long snap share. The second-year tight end ranked in the top 10 in target share (20.2%), target rate (29.4%), and average depth of target (7.6) among tight ends in 2024, but ultimately finished as the TE18 in fantasy points per game (7.8).
Buffalo’s offense is designed to win through an efficient running game and the ability to spread the ball out to multiple pass catchers. Kincaid has been one of those, but the lack of target volume has made it difficult for him to be a consistent fantasy producer.
The addition of Joshua Palmer and potential development of 2024 second-round pick Keon Coleman further dilutes the targets that can go to him on a limited snap share.
Kincaid will remain a player with tremendous upside in a good offense that falls short of expectations if he is stuck in a timeshare with Knox. He’s undoubtedly capable of top 10 scoring weeks, but will also produce plenty of low-end TE2 weeks in between. He’s a boom-or-bust tight end that can’t quite be trusted in fantasy at this point.
