Dak Prescott is coming off the worst season of his career and one that was cut short by injury. As a result, it seems as though fantasy football managers have forgotten what he can do when functioning properly. Should fantasy managers be targeting the Dallas Cowboys quarterback at his lowest price since his rookie year?
Dak Prescott Fantasy Outlook
The fantasy community has made incredible strides over the past decade. The average manager is exponentially smarter and better informed than they used to be. But there are still things that slip through the cracks. This year, one of the biggest discrepancies between player ability and fantasy value is Prescott.
Last year, Prescott averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game in half a season. It was easily the worst year of his career, which was compounded by his Week 9 hamstring tear that ended his season.
Perhaps Prescott’s injuries are contributing to his rejection as a top fantasy quarterback. After not missing a game over the first four years of his career, Prescott shattered his ankle in Week 5 of 2020, missed five games with a thumb injury in 2022, and had the aforementioned torn hamstring in 2024.
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I do think it’s unfair to call Prescott injury-prone. His three injuries have been completely random and disconnected from the others. Last year’s hamstring tear was the only soft tissue injury subject to potential recurrence.
Where the hamstring tear and the injuries as a whole will negatively impact Prescott is in the rushing department. While never truly a rushing QB, Prescott did provide much more on the ground early in his career. Last season, he had run for just 54 yards in eight games at the time of his injury. It’s safe to say Prescott is a pure pocket passer at this point in his career.
The lack of rushing lowers Prescott’s upside outside of 6 point passing touchdown leagues, but it is far from a death sentence. This is a quarterback with a lengthy track record of belonging on fantasy rosters and being startable.
We are merely two years removed from Prescott averaging 20.7 PPG and getting MVP votes. Yet, just two years later, he’s now the QB15 by average draft position (ADP).
Every Dak Prescott throw of 20+ air yards from a clean pocket in 2024: pic.twitter.com/KRz0CZvmcB
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 16, 2025
The Cowboys are entering a new era after moving on from Mike McCarthy. However, Brian Schottenheimer was the offensive coordinator last season, bringing a sense of continuity. Schottenheimer also has a history of throwing the ball more. It’s part of why he was fired in Seattle — Pete Carroll thought he was passing too much.
There’s also the matter of the Cowboys having a subpar defense. The last time we saw the Cowboys with a truly awful defense was in 2020. Unfortunately, that was the year Prescott broke his ankle. But in five games, he averaged 27.9 PPG and tracked toward obliterating the single-season passing yardage record.
The Cowboys finally upgraded their offensive weapons this year, trading for George Pickens. For the first time since Amari Cooper was on the team, he gives them a genuine threat opposite CeeDee Lamb.
Add in the fact that the running back room is somehow even worse than it was last year, when it was led by Rico Dowdle and a completely cooked Ezekiel Elliott, and we have a recipe for a very pass-heavy attack in 2025.
Prescott will take an outlier touchdown season to return elite QB1 value without much on the ground, but we’ve seen him do it before. In 2021, Prescott averaged 20.7 PPG while averaging fewer than 10 rushing yards per game.
While he only finished as the overall QB9, anything over 20 PPG is excellent production. That was more of a product of how prolific quarterback scoring was that season. That same PPG performance got him to QB4 in 2023.
Prescott’s 2019 and 2023 seasons rank 67th and 73rd in PFSN’s QB+ database, respectively. He earned a B+ grade with a score of roughly 88 in both years. This is a very good quarterback who is still in the prime of his career.
I have Prescott ranked as my QB13, which is pretty close to consensus. However, I am incredibly bullish on him rebounding considerably and performing in line with his career levels.
Fantasy managers should still favor mobile QBs. But once you get into the later rounds, Prescott is a very appealing option. As long as he is healthy, it would be a major surprise if he weren’t a top 12 fantasy quarterback this season.
Mason LeBeau’s Dak Prescott Fantasy Projection
I started this offseason lower on Dak Prescott, primarily due to the injury he is coming off of and questions around his new offensive coordinator, turned head coach, Brian Schottenheimer. I wasn’t particularly high on Schottenheimer before, but adding team-wide duties to his role only worries me more. Pair that with a run game that may not be improved, and another locker room distraction in WR George Pickens, and I was pretty worried about the health of this team.Â
But, I’ve come around. Schottenheimer has been with the Cowboys for three years before, so continuity will exist within an offense that’s worked to some degree. Prescott may run even less than before, but that’s been the case for some time now (18 rushing TDs in his first three seasons, 11 total in six years since). The run game may still suck, but if the defense continues to struggle, this will become a pass funnel offense like the Bengals.Â
Perhaps that means there’s a path to keeping Pickens happy even if he’s the second option. He’s clearly talented, and his skill set should fit perfectly across from CeeDee Lamb. In Prescott’s six full seasons, his floor has been QB11, and his ceiling has been a top-three QB, which he’s done twice.Â
His consistency when healthy has been great, and the situation seems to align with a very productive season. I was initially skeptical, but I now think he’s a value version of Joe Burrow.Â
