The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Dallas Cowboys players heading into their matchup with the Carolina Panthers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Dak Prescott, QB
Dak Prescott has had a deep TD pass in both games since the CeeDee Lamb injury after failing to throw one prior.
Make it make sense.
His average depth of throw is up 15.7% over the past two weeks, and while that introduces more variance, that’s exactly what a more pocket-locked QB needs to do.
Do I think he’s going to account for four touchdowns every week? Of course not. He’s run hot in terms of playmaking in consecutive games, and if you want to sell high, I think it’d be pretty easy with Lamb coming back sooner than later and their record back to .500.
This is obviously a good matchup, but I encourage you to see the forest through the trees.
Your playoffs likely take place in Weeks 15-17. Not only does he have a tough go of it in the beginning of that stretch (Vikings, Chargers, and Commanders in a short-rest road game), but he gets the Eagles, Chiefs, and Lions in the preceding three weeks.
Prescott very well could be the reason you’re on a two-game winning streak. But I promise you that your leaguemates are seeing plenty of propaganda trending his way, and that’ll continue leading into this favorable spot.
If you’re willing to lose the battle of Week 6 to win the war of the season, considering a move is very much on the table.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 6 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Javonte Williams, RB
The irony of Javonte Williams totaling 139 yards and two scores the same week in which the man he replaced this offseason runs for over 200 yards was not lost on anyone.
The Week 5 scoring was off the charts for both him and Rico Dowdle, but I can’t imagine Dallas is at all regretting their decision at all. Williams has scored six times this season and is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, gaining yardage on an astronomical 92.4% of his carries (2022: 79.9%).
With 15+ carries in four of five games and 15+ receiving yards in four of five, we are looking at a running back tethered to a team that needs to score 25+ points weekly to keep up. Williams gets the rare projected benefit of a game script this week, and that has him flirting with top-10 status for me this week.
If you roster Williams, this is the type of player who reminds you why you love the game.
If you don’t, studies say you’re 17% more likely to hate on the industry and dismiss the work we put in during the preseason in trying to identify breakout candidates.
George Pickens, WR
We got the full George Pickens experience on Sunday in New York.
He had his separation issues (four targets on 30 routes), but when Prescott identified single coverage, even against one of the best corners in the game, and gave this 6’3″ athlete a chance to make a game-breaking play, he did.
With Sauce Gardner in about as good of position as he could be, Pickens plucked a 43-yard bomb out of the air for a touchdown, saving what was otherwise a no-show performance.
He’s now scored in four straight games and is averaging 15.5 yards per catch. I don’t think this is a flawless profile (without that 11.3-point play, we are probably having a different discussion today), but I do think the talent/situation combination is too good to fade in any given week.
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Even better? The defense is so bad that I’m not overly concerned about game script in a spot like this. The projected total this week is flirting with 50 points, something that I expect to be the case weekly with Dallas. CeeDee Lamb is going to return from his high ankle sprain at some point, and we can discuss the (minimal) dip in ranking for Pickens when that happens, but until then, enjoy the production!
It wouldn’t be hard to make the case for him as a top 10 receiver this week. I’m a touch lower, but we are splitting hairs.
Jake Ferguson, TE
You’d never know that Jake Ferguson had a touchdown-scoring problem up until two weeks ago, as fantasy’s top performer at the position has now found paydirt three times in eight quarters.
The spike in TD fortune is always good to see, but 7+ grabs in four straight is more of what gets my juices flowing. Reasonable minds can argue if he sees a downtick in production when CeeDee Lamb returns or if the increased pressure put on defenses puts the chain mover (6.6 yards per catch) in a better spot to succeed, but I’m not sure it matters.
Prescott has three pass catchers he trusts, and a defense that struggles to stop anyone: Ferguson’s ranking among the fantasy elite is here to stay.
I won’t be paying the premium in DFS spots this week because I’m not sure this game environment resembles the ones Dallas has been a part of in the past, but that’s picking nits.
