The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Indianapolis Colts players heading into their matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Daniel Jones, QB
Jones has multiple TD passes in consecutive games after going through all of September without a single such showing, and he continues to comfortably lead this offense that is showing no signs of slowing down.
He added his fourth rush TD of the season on Sunday against the Cardinals, and he’s going to need to keep giving you those short touchdowns to be a weekly asset.
As athletic as he is, he’s been more of a spot rusher (3.2 yards per carry), and the passing yardage totals aren’t reliable (under 230 in three of his past four).
Los Angeles has a strong defense, but it’s underwhelmed in consecutive weeks, and this Colts machine is the type that can extend those struggles. Tua Tagovailoa took Miami down the field when it mattered most last week, thriving in large part thanks to a consistently successful ground game.
Jonathan Taylor is as good a bet as any to put Jones in a similar spot, and that’s why I’ve got Jones labeled as a high-floor option, even if the fantasy isn’t elite.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
Six players in all of 2024 had 4+ games with at least 17 carries and four targets.
Taylor has done it four times in four weeks.
With another touchdown (eight for the season) and 137 scrimmage yards (750 this year), JT continues to make the special performance look ordinary.
The volume is unmatched, the efficiency tough to comprehend (5.2 yards per carry with a 90.9% catch rate), and the consistency is on another level (90.4% gain rate despite everyone knowing what is coming).
Every running back is at risk of getting injured, and Taylor is no exception (16 missed games from 2022-24). If that happens, it happens. If it doesn’t, he might be the most popular player on fantasy champions this season and the driving force behind the most surprising team in the sport.
Josh Downs, WR
It’s hard to call a 42-yard performance against the Cardinals a breakout, but Downs scored his first touchdown of the season, capitalizing on his first three red zone touches of the season.
He led the Colts in receptions (six) and the receivers in targets, seeing his expected point production improve for a third consecutive week.
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I’m not saying Downs is a PPR start this week or that he has a very clear path to earn such a label, but if you are buying what Indianapolis is selling, there’s no reason he can’t have a midseason run in line with what Michael Pittman did to open the season.
Downs isn’t going to win you your league with some sort of extreme spike in the second half of the season, but it wouldn’t shock me at all for him to emerge as a reasonable flex option down the stretch, and that holds value as the playoffs near.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
We thought the Arizona matchup would help Pittman extend his strong production, but he turned 27 routes into just three targets and four PPR points, easily his worst showing of the season.
The fact that we have four touchdowns from a traditionally low-upside receiver that has been held without a red zone target in four of six weeks is a red flag, as if the fact that Josh Downs finished Sunday with twice as many catches as Pittman had targets.
I’m still ranking him as the WR1 in Indy, though my confidence that that label carries weekly value is fading a bit. Tyler Lockett has established himself as an alpha target earner, and we know that Taylor is going to get his 20 touches every week, thus requiring a receiver to really exploit a matchup to earn volume.
The Chargers have allowed over 15 PPR points to a receiver in consecutive games and four times this season: I don’t think Pittman gets there, but I think he has the best chance to, and that puts him on flex radars in PPR formats.
There are some injuries to consider in terms of the league-wide rankings, but Pittman will check in around WR30 when things kick off.
Tyler Warren, TE
That’s now two straight weeks with a TD catch, three with a touchdown from scrimmage, and four games this year with more than 60 receiving yards. We naturally pencil in a learning curve for college kids entering the pros, but if you watched these games without color, I’m not sure you’d be able to identify Warren’s Penn State tape from what he’s done 1.5 months into his pro career.
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He’s the same versatile weapon he was at Happy Valley, and the Colts’ offense is thriving off of what the rookie brings to the table. The touchdown last week came when he positioned to block and then ran a slow drag route: I have no idea what you’re supposed to do to stop that.
He’s too big for cover guys and way too nimble for the bulky linebackers that are often asked to keep up with him. Warren is a walking mismatch and is positioned to be one of the storylines when this season is over, and you look back at your draft board to see how the champion built a winning roster.
Round 1 Picks With 60+ Receiving Yards in 4 of First 6 Games Since 2005
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Malik Nabers
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Ja’Marr Chase
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CeeDee Lamb
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Tetairoa McMillan
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Emeka Egbuka
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Warren
