Ever since arguably the best rookie season by a quarterback in NFL history, C.J. Stroud has been coasting off of that performance. For two straight years, he’s done enough for the Houston Texans, but hasn’t come close to making the same fantasy impact he did that first season. Is there any reason fantasy football managers should expect 2026 to be any different?
Should You Draft C.J. Stroud in Fantasy Football?
Looking back on Stroud’s 2023 season, it doesn’t even feel real. This wasn’t a situation where he figured things out as the year went along and emerged as a viable QB1. He came out blasting!
In Weeks 2-4, Stroud posted 20+ fantasy points in each of them. He had a massive 41.8-point outing in Week 9 and another 30.9 in Week 12. In total, Stroud had seven games with 19+ fantasy points and another four in the 14-16 range, which is still enough to keep fantasy managers afloat in a given week. He averaged 18.4 PPG on the season.
Since then, Stroud’s play has declined precipitously. He’s crested 20 fantasy points just four times over his last two seasons combined. Despite his supporting cast at least remaining the same, if not improving, Stroud’s air yards per attempt has dropped every year of his career, leading to decreased efficiency, even though his completion percentage and touchdown rate have remained steady.
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One excuse some people like to offer is the Texans’ poor offensive line. It’s true that the highest grade the Texans received in PFSN OL Impact Score was in 2023. However, that number (68.5) was just 4.1 points higher than 2024 and 1.1 more than 2025. It’s been below 70.0 for Stroud’s entire career. Sure, it would be nice if the Texans had a better line, which they are projected to have this season, but it’s not exactly fair to blame the line for Stroud’s decline.
Stroud’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
Stroud has averaged 13.0 and 14.9 PPG in each of his last two seasons. He’s been a low-end QB2 who was barely even a viable streaming option. While there is a lot of merit in waiting on a quarterback this season, given how deep that position is, that depth does not include Stroud, who we have ranked at QB22.
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In standard-sized 1QB leagues, there’s no reason to draft Stroud, and he will not be selected in almost all of them. The Texans are a team content to win ugly, low-scoring games via rushing and the best defense in football. It’s rare that an opponent pushes them to have to air it out. Just six teams hit the 20-point threshold against them all of last season, three of which were exactly 20 or 21. Only three times did a team score 22+. The offensive environment is not conducive to fantasy points.
Given the sheer number of superior fantasy options, Stroud is not someone to consider outside of Superflex leagues.
Stroud’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
Prior to this year, the appeal with Stroud was the knowledge that even if he wasn’t lighting up the scoreboard, he wouldn’t lose his job. Now, I’m not so sure.
Stroud’s performance in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs last season was so bad that the announcers and fans were openly questioning whether DeMeco Ryans should put in Davis Mills. Obviously, that didn’t happen, but the door is now open to the notion that perhaps Stroud isn’t the Texans’ franchise quarterback.
The Texans’ defense is too good for them to truly be a bad team. As a result, even below-average quarterback play from Stroud will be enough to keep them in games. The team will make his struggles not seem as bad. But coaches know. If Stroud’s play doesn’t improve, there’s a nonzero chance they look for someone else in 2027.
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Is this likely? No. But every single quarterback ranked above his QB16 spot in our dynasty rankings has a 0% chance of getting benched until such time as those players are no longer good at football (read: old).
Stroud will turn 25 years old this season. In theory, he should have more than a decade of football ahead of him, making him a valuable asset in Superflex leagues even if he remains nothing more than a mid-to-low QB2. Instead, dynasty managers need to ask themselves whether now might be the last time to trade Stroud, given the value that comes with a guy who will confidently start for a long time.
