Christian McCaffrey is the greatest fantasy football asset since LaDainian Tomlinson…when healthy. That’s been the problem every year he’s failed to live up to expectations. It’s been the only issue. Coming off a season where he played all of four games, can fantasy managers invest a first or second-round selection in the San Francisco 49ers RB?
Should You Draft Christian McCaffrey in Fantasy?
At what point is the risk worth it? That is the question fantasy managers must answer when it comes to McCaffrey.
He may be 29 years old, but we’ve seen no drop off in talent. I don’t think there’s anyone out there who truly believes we should fade McCaffrey because he might no longer be good at football.
If anything, this year sets up better for McCaffrey than any of his seasons since joining the 49ers.
Deebo Samuel Sr. is gone. Brandon Aiyuk is set to miss the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. It’s George Kittle and the hopes that Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings can step up into more prominent roles. If things break right, this could be the most significant volume McCaffrey sees, drawing comparisons back to his Carolina days.
Two years ago, during McCaffrey’s last healthy season, he averaged 24.5 fantasy points per game (PPG), finishing as the overall RB1.
Last year, although McCaffrey only averaged 12.0 PPG in his four games played, he was his usual dominant self.
McCaffrey scored 16.7 and 14.6 fantasy points in his first two games back without scoring a touchdown. He had a down game in his third appearance with just 7.8 fantasy points. Then, in his fourth game, he already had 8.7 fantasy points early in the second quarter before he suffered what wound up being a season-ending injury.
Christian McCaffrey did in fact suffer his potentially season-ending PCL injury on this play — one play before he went down and then took himself out of the game. pic.twitter.com/iFbjkHiEhR
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 2, 2024
In those four games, McCaffrey saw an 18.6% target share and a 71.9% opportunity share. He played 75% of the snaps, which includes that fourth game where he exited in the second quarter. He was his usual elite self. The issue, of course, is McCaffrey’s health.
McCaffrey has been in the NFL for eight years (this will be his ninth). He’s never missed a handful of games. He either plays the entire season, something he’s done five times. Or, he misses almost all of it. McCaffrey has played seven games or fewer in the three seasons in which he was unable to stay healthy.
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There’s no need to pore over McCaffrey’s accolades. We know what he can do when he’s on the field. A fully healthy McCaffrey — or even a McCaffrey who finished last season — would be the No. 1 overall pick (or at least the overall running back 1) in 2025 fantasy drafts. Instead, due entirely to injury concerns, McCaffrey’s average draft position (ADP) is RB5, going around the 1/2 turn. Is that enough of a discount to take on the injury risk?
Anyone who drafted McCaffrey last season would likely say no. He was the No. 1 pick in the draft, and he gave fantasy managers two productive games. If you drafted McCaffrey, I cannot blame you for feeling jaded and swearing him off forever.
If you draft McCaffrey at the 1/2 turn and are wrong, it may very well cost you your season. It all comes down to risk tolerance. There is no right or wrong answer.
I draft to win. I understand taking McCaffrey is risky and could derail my season. But a healthy McCaffrey is a virtual lock to outperform his ADP. 10 spots in the first round is a lot more significant than 20 spots in the middle rounds. If we get a healthy season of 20+ PPG McCaffrey from the 1/2 turn, that’s incredible value.
By all accounts, McCaffrey is fully healthy. As much as fantasy managers may not want to acknowledge it, McCaffrey was never fully healthy last year. He suffered a calf strain early in training camp that eventually resulted in Achilles tendinitis. Currently, there are no reports of any injuries nor any indication that McCaffrey has any lingering effects from the ones he dealt with last year.
George Kittle dealt with bilateral Achilles tendinitis (tracked back to sometime between 2020-2023) and sought stem cell treatment. Hasn’t had issues since.
Christian McCaffrey did the same in 2024, and is fully healthy again (also healthy from the PCL sprain).
Wheels up. pic.twitter.com/3GGrP4pnOx
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) April 30, 2025
I have McCaffrey ranked as my RB4. While I do think he is the overall RB1 when healthy, the top four are all elite enough with high enough ceilings to outweigh the necessity of taking a risk on McCaffrey. But after that, I am willing to push the button on CMC.
Frank Ammirante’s Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Projection
Christian McCaffrey is coming off an injury-plagued season that limited him to only four games. Still, the superstar running back looks fully healthy now, set for a massive role for the 49ers.
San Francisco currently has major issues with wide receivers — Deebo Samuel is now a Commander, Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a torn ACL, Jauan Jennings has been banged up in camp and wants a new contract, and Ricky Pearsall is still a wild card.
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That leaves McCaffrey and TE George Kittle, who look poised to be the focal points of this Niners offense. Expect “CMC” to once again see a massive workload for a team that has one of the softest schedules in the NFL. Meanwhile, expect the 49ers to play with a lead quite often, resulting in favorable game scripts for McCaffrey.
While I understand any hesitation with taking McCaffrey in the first round because of what happened last year, it’s still worth a shot because the upside is that you’re getting the highest scorer in fantasy outside of the top five picks.
