Christian McCaffrey is the greatest fantasy football asset since LaDainian Tomlinson…when healthy. That’s been the problem every year he’s failed to live up to expectations. It’s been the only issue. Coming off a season where he played all of four games, can fantasy managers invest a first or second-round selection in the San Francisco 49ers RB?
Should You Draft Christian McCaffrey in Fantasy?
At what point is the risk worth it? That is the question fantasy managers must answer when it comes to McCaffrey.
He may be 29 years old, but we’ve seen no drop off in talent. I don’t think there’s anyone out there who truly believes we should fade McCaffrey because he might no longer be good at football.
If anything, this year sets up better for McCaffrey than any of his seasons since joining the 49ers.
Deebo Samuel Sr. is gone. Brandon Aiyuk is set to miss the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. It’s George Kittle and the hopes that Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings can step up into more prominent roles. If things break right, this could be the most significant volume McCaffrey sees, drawing comparisons back to his Carolina days.
Two years ago, during McCaffrey’s last healthy season, he averaged 24.5 fantasy points per game (PPG), finishing as the overall RB1.
Last year, although McCaffrey only averaged 12.0 PPG in his four games played, he was his usual dominant self.
McCaffrey scored 16.7 and 14.6 fantasy points in his first two games back without scoring a touchdown. He had a down game in his third appearance with just 7.8 fantasy points. Then, in his fourth game, he already had 8.7 fantasy points early in the second quarter before he suffered what wound up being a season-ending injury.
Christian McCaffrey did in fact suffer his potentially season-ending PCL injury on this play — one play before he went down and then took himself out of the game. pic.twitter.com/iFbjkHiEhR
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 2, 2024
In those four games, McCaffrey saw an 18.6% target share and a 71.9% opportunity share. He played 75% of the snaps, which includes that fourth game where he exited in the second quarter. He was his usual elite self. The issue, of course, is McCaffrey’s health.
McCaffrey has been in the NFL for eight years (this will be his ninth). He’s never missed a handful of games. He either plays the entire season, something he’s done five times. Or, he misses almost all of it. McCaffrey has played seven games or fewer in the three seasons in which he was unable to stay healthy.
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There’s no need to pore over McCaffrey’s accolades. We know what he can do when he’s on the field. A fully healthy McCaffrey — or even a McCaffrey who finished last season — would be the No. 1 overall pick (or at least the overall running back 1) in 2025 fantasy drafts. Instead, due entirely to injury concerns, McCaffrey’s average draft position (ADP) is RB5, going around the 1/2 turn. Is that enough of a discount to take on the injury risk?
Anyone who drafted McCaffrey last season would likely say no. He was the No. 1 pick in the draft, and he gave fantasy managers two productive games. If you drafted McCaffrey, I cannot blame you for feeling jaded and swearing him off forever.
If you draft McCaffrey at the 1/2 turn and are wrong, it may very well cost you your season. It all comes down to risk tolerance. There is no right or wrong answer.
I draft to win. I understand taking McCaffrey is risky and could derail my season. But a healthy McCaffrey is a virtual lock to outperform his ADP. 10 spots in the first round is a lot more significant than 20 spots in the middle rounds. If we get a healthy season of 20+ PPG McCaffrey from the 1/2 turn, that’s incredible value.
By all accounts, McCaffrey is fully healthy. As much as fantasy managers may not want to acknowledge it, McCaffrey was never fully healthy last year. He suffered a calf strain early in training camp that eventually resulted in Achilles tendinitis. Currently, there are no reports of any injuries nor any indication that McCaffrey has any lingering effects from the ones he dealt with last year.
George Kittle dealt with bilateral Achilles tendinitis (tracked back to sometime between 2020-2023) and sought stem cell treatment. Hasn’t had issues since.
Christian McCaffrey did the same in 2024, and is fully healthy again (also healthy from the PCL sprain).
Wheels up. pic.twitter.com/3GGrP4pnOx
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) April 30, 2025
I have McCaffrey ranked as my RB4. While I do think he is the overall RB1 when healthy, the top four are all elite enough with high enough ceilings to outweigh the necessity of taking a risk on McCaffrey. But after that, I am willing to push the button on CMC.
Cameron Sheath’s Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Projection
Several players could be considered realistic RB1 candidates in 2025, but few have already shown they can do it. Christian McCaffrey put on an all-time great season in 2023, averaging 24.5 fantasy points per game.
The 49ers star went from league-winner to league-loser in 2024, though, as Achilles tendonitis and a PCL sprain limited him to just four games, the fourth of which he left early. What made matters worse for fantasy managers is that the player’s tendonitis wasn’t revealed until right before the season kicked off, after he had been taken first overall in most drafts.
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This year, managers will need to weigh McCaffrey’s elite ability against the risk of further injuries. The late revelation regarding his injuries last year has left a sour taste in the mouths of those who drafted him and will have owners sweating right up until kickoff in September.
Assuming he plays, though, McCaffrey will likely return to his dominant role in the 49ers’ offense, working extensively in both the run and pass games. With Deebo Samuel now in Washington and Brandon Aiyuk unlikely to feature early on, the team will need their running back to get back to his best.
“CMC” is a frightening pick to make so early in drafts, but no player has more upside if he stays healthy.
