This time last year, we were all interested in the Cincinnati Bengals’ backfield, but unsure of how to proceed due to a budding Chase Brown and Zack Moss committee. Moss was the newcomer with more NFL reps, while Brown was the little-used rookie loaded with potential but an unclear role.
Well, things cleared up. Brown was the 14th-best running back based on points per game (PPG) in points per reception (PPR) formats a season ago with 1,350 yards from scrimmage and 11 scores in his 16 games. As he enters his age-25 season, there’s a case to be made for him to be even better in 2025.
Should you buy in now, or has the value been sucked out of this profile?
Should You Draft Chase Brown in Fantasy?
It’s not hard to build the case for Brown as an RB1 after what he put on film last season.
He had eight finishes as an RB1 and proved more than capable of holding up in his bellcow role (20+ touches in four straight to round out last season). Brown was drafted in the fifth round of the 2023 draft and profiled as a potential lead back (355 touches for Illinois in 2022); his versatility was a question mark (college career: just 7.9% of his touches were receptions).
He easily dispatched those concerns in 2024, catching 54 of his 65 targets in this high-flying attack led by Joe Burrow, including 19 of 21 in December. The dynamics of this offense allowed Brown to flourish situationally – of the 46 running backs who had 100+ carries a season ago, 42 of them ran into a loaded box at a higher frequency.
It’s Chase scoring TDs in Cincy! Chase Brown, that is.
📺: #INDvsCIN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8S30C pic.twitter.com/2iiHGyBWOX— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023
It may sound simple, but the fewer giant men you have to navigate around the line of scrimmage, the better. Brown gained yardage on 85.2% of his attempts last year, a rate that topped an RB that has a case to be the top overall pick (Jahmyr Gibbs: 84.4%) and another that is viewed as “safe” and thus going ahead of him with regularity (Josh Jacobs: 85%).
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The offensive environment, of course, offers more upside than just backing teams off the line of scrimmage. Targeting explosive offenses is something fantasy managers do for a multitude of reasons, with the top one being that their player is constantly in scoring position. Touchdowns can be fluky year-over-year in terms of count, but if you roster enough players who are constantly knocking on the door, you position yourself to be “lucky” more often than your competition, and that’s a place I want to be.
- Weeks 1-8, 10 red zone touches
- That ranked 37th at the position, behind Trey Sermon, Rachaad White, and Ray Davis
- Weeks 9-18: 42 red zone touches
- Only Bijan Robinson (44) had more
If you’re going to pick-a-nit, it’s that Brown isn’t going to light up the highlight shows. He’s not going to make a backwards hurdle and is unlikely to have a single play that elevates his fantasy standing in a major way (229 carries last season, and he didn’t have a gain longer than 40 yards).
But does that really matter if the volume is as stable as we expect it to be? The other RBs age-25 or younger last season with 200+ carries and no such chunk plays were Chuba Hubbard (PPR RB13), Kyren Williams (PPR RB10), and Bijan Robinson (PPR RB3)
I’m looking to buy cheap insurance on Brown when available, not because I have concerns about him, but because I’m that sold on this offense. I want to ensure that by investing valuable draft capital to get the lead dog isn’t undercut by some poor injury luck. Wheels up on Cincinnati’s bellcow, the 2024 campaign was anything but a mirage.
Frank Ammirante’s Chase Brown Fantasy Projection
Chase Brown came on strong for the Bengals down the stretch last year. From Weeks 9-18, Brown averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats, which ranked as RB5 during that span.
We saw Brown have a massive workload, averaging 18.8 carries and 5.5 targets in his last eight games. That combination of both rushing and receiving volume gives Brown a high ceiling for 2025.
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Some fantasy players are cautious because this is a third-year back with Day 3 draft capital who took over the lead role for a short period last year. Still, I’m staying confident, due to the Bengals’ minimal investment in alternative options to Brown this year. All Cincinnati did was use a sixth-rounder on Tahj Brooks, so you can feel optimistic of Brown retaining his bellcow role.
Playing for a pass-heavy offense that should be involved in several shootouts due to a porous defense, Brown should have several opportunities to rack up targets and touchdowns. This looks like the new Austin Ekeler, so don’t be afraid to take him in the second round.
