Growth isn’t linear, but it’s common to see high-pedigree prospects take a big leap in their sophomore season, which is something that fantasy football managers are cautiously optimistic will happen for Caleb Williams in 2025.
His counting numbers were modest last year, but there were glimpses of greatness, and if the added talent from the 2025 NFL Draft lives up to expectations, we could be looking at a league winner.
Is drafting Williams as your Day 1 starter a sharp move?
Should You Draft Caleb Williams in Fantasy?
As a rookie, Williams did post five top-6 finishes, three of which came against NFC North opponents, something you love to see as those teams are the only constants on the schedule year-over-year and make up 35.3% of the schedule.
Year 1 of Caleb Williams & Rome Odunze was so fun to watch pic.twitter.com/CcYnxSFcBc
— Bearsszn (@bearssznn) April 30, 2025
That said, there are two sides to every coin.
He also had seven games without a single touchdown pass. That includes a run of four consecutive games after consecutive top-5s — right as you felt good about starting him, he underachieved in a massive way.
It was a bumpy ride for those of us with Williams stock, but that’s to be expected. Apple didn’t thrive when it first hit the market, did it?
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When zooming out to view the whole picture, I think there was more good than bad and thus reason to be optimistic moving forward. He cleared 25 rushing on 10 occasions, a level of versatility that is the skeleton key in this game we love.
2024 Leaders in 25/20 games (rush yards/completions)
- 9 – Jayden Daniels
- 8 – Lamar Jackson
- 7 – Caleb Williams
- 6 – Josh Allen, Bo Nix, and Drake Maye
Locking down a solid WR1 in DJ Moore last July (his contract extension runs through 2029) was critical, and the team has done nothing but show confidence in his trajectory. They obviously paired him with Rome Odunze during the 2024 draft and brought in further support this April by way of TE Colston Loveland (10th overall pick) and WR Luther Burden III (39th overall pick). The situation, pedigree, and history of top overall picks taking a step forward in Year 2 all profile well.
Will there be bumps in the developmental curve this year like there were last year? Likely, but if the highs are more often and the lows are elevated, we are onto something. I liked what I saw in terms of in-season growth as a rookie (during the first half of last season, he completed just 39% of his passes and posted a 54.1 passer rating).
In the second half, those numbers rose to 49.3% and 77.6% respectively. If he can make those sorts of tweaks on the fly, I’m very much interested in picking up more shares of him in this Ben Johnson-led attack.
Frank Ammirante’s Caleb Williams Fantasy Projection
Caleb Williams is coming off a disappointing rookie season, but he did show flashes of brilliance with fantasy production, featuring five games with 23 or more points. The former USC star has a fantasy-friendly profile and can make big plays off-script and add output on the ground.
With HC Ben Johnson calling plays, Williams has a significant upgrade at offensive coordinator. The Bears also invested a top-10 pick in a tight end who can win downfield in Colston Loveland and another wideout in the second round in Luther Burden. There’s no shortage of weapons in Year 2 of the Williams era.
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Chicago also upgraded the offensive line, bringing in guard Joe Thuney and center Drew Dalman. Improving pass protection was imperative to help Caleb take his game to the next level.
While the fantasy ADP is already significantly improving, I’m still on Williams because taking him is a swing for the fences at a replaceable position. Even if the former first overall pick doesn’t pan out, you should easily find an alternative.
